What happens when you embrace life as a trader, living on your own PnL
1) you treat the general volatility of life with equanimity, sh*t happens everyday in the portfolio and its a reflection of life. Most people want to suppress vol (salary, stability etc)
2) it becomes impossible to live any other way. Making money and freedom by using your mind, instincts, experience etc is an amazing feeling and trading time for money becomes totally anathema
Dec 31, 2025 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
2026 predictions🔮
i) Proper commodities bubble, it started with precious metals, next are PGMs, after which are base metals then its the bulks and ends with energy / ags
Blows up spectacularly into close of 26 as Fed signals tightening in 27
Trade: long all commods
2026 predictions🔮
ii) Chinese breakthrough on semi conductors (EUV etc) and you get a melt up in China's chip making complex
trade: $ACMR & all china semi equipment value chain
Sep 4, 2024 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
1/
Coal equities, 2025 and capital returns
$WHC.AX $GLEN $HCC $AMR $YAL.AX
The entire coal (met + thermal) story was predicated on:
- coal will be used for a long time to come
- new supply will be scarce supporting pricing
- mgmt teams will be sober on capital allocation
2/
Coal equities, 2025 and capital returns
In most cases the story has fallen apart because mgmt teams have decided to prioritise growth instead of allocating capital back to shareholders
