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Nick Rose Profile picture
Nick Rose
@Asinickle1
Nov 4, 2023 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
I think I'm seeing most people agree that JN.1 is the fastest variant at the moment, possibly by a substantial amount. So I'm glad that got recognized! Ile-de-France is the hotspot and my model predicts that sequences collected there Oct on 30 will be 50% JN.1. (1/N) Image Right now my model has JN.1 at a 128% weekly growth advantage over the background in Ile-de-France from Aug 14-Oct 16. Confidence interval is 80%-200%.
This appears to be slightly slower than if you measure JN.1 in France as a whole. (2/N) Image
Oct 24, 2023 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
New data for JN.1 today. I've also changed my model to only include full weeks of data for large regions (England, France.) - I'll explain more in the thread, but my model is back to seeing JN.1 as very fast and largely consistent in my 3 tracked regions. (1/n) Image For England, I am using data that @OliasDave has access to through CLIMB, which is more complete than what is on GISAID. I am now cutting off the most recent incomplete week. Thanks @JosetteSchoenma for talking me into this! Should result in more accurate consistent data. (2/n) Image
Oct 21, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
I'm trying to make sense of how much we can believe the data coming out of France which shows JN.1 is very fast.
It's still early on so there's not great comparisons, but I'll show some of what I found in this thread. First - JN.1 is well distributed in France, meaning that the sequences aren't all coming from one cluster. Additionally the region that had the first sequence has the most JN.1 sequences today.
Here is a summary of the population of French regions, and how many JN.1s they have. Image
Oct 20, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
France uploaded more data, including 8 new JN.1 sequences. Note that the "week" of 10/9 only has data for a single day.
To me, JN.1 (and therefore BA.2.86*) is increasingly likely to be the most significant/inportant development for the virus since Omicron. Image Here is my model. The blue line is after today's upload, and red is before.
The x axis is growth advantage, but please note that the scale is logistic -- 1% covers more pixels on the left side than the right.
Y axis is relative likelihood -- higher = more likely Image
Oct 18, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read


I believe this is the first data on JN.1, the apparently fast child of BA.2.86.1.
It is measured to be the most immune evasive variant that was investigated (and its a good list). To me, it appearing as the most immune evasive variant strengthens the current data that suggests it is the fastest growing variant.

Also though, even though the measured growth advantage JN.1 has in France under my model would make me suspect XBB will not catch up...
Aug 17, 2023 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
I want to talk a bit about what we know of the potential speed and spread of the BA.x/potential Pi variant explained here. There are still only three sequences that have been identified. Two from Denmark that were submitted on 8/14 and collected on 7/24 and 7/31 respectively. One from Israel, submitted on 8/13 and collected on 7/31.
These are all from different and unrelated patients.