Ok - with all the the bombshell FTX and @SBF_FTX news that keeps dropping this week, those of us in the futures world are stunned at the lack of control regarding Customer Money

time for a quick thread on how this works in the [Heavily Regulated] futures industry => 1) when you, Mr. Retail trader or you, Mrs. Hedge Fund manager, open a futures account...

That account gets opened at a registered Futures Commission Merchant (FCM).

Here's @FIAconnect stats showing about $354 B across 47 FCM.

Been seeing a lot of ‘Commodity Prices are Down’ tweets and comments lately…

Are CTAs/Trend Followers now getting crushed….

Not so fast… time for a Tread

(that's not misspelled, i'm mashing up Trend and Thread for those of you sick of threads) 1/n
Not sure if it’s THE top, but there’s def A top forming in commodities.

https://twitter.com/GilmanHill/status/1547143018561605634?s=20&t=PkdGwovyfgh0-n9gIC1nqg

Are these all the same?

- Managed Futures
- CTAs
- Trend Following

Yes.... Sort of... Well, let me explain👇 1/n

The ever-observant @JasonMutiny has noted on a few podcasts that Alts in general, and Managed Futures/CTA/Trend in particular have terrible naming conventions...

Perhaps leading to @MebFaber laments on under-exposure / lack of interest in this asset class / strategy type

Have you seen what's happening this month for investors blending CTA/Trend with equity exposure (a mini thread)

Most of us think of diversification as a bit of a tradeoff - investing in this thing which can do well when that thing is not doing so well. You zig when (stocks) zag And we all tend to think of CTA/Trend as that crisis period performer that can kick in when equities are struggling. Here's the prorgam from @StandpointFunds which blends equity and CTA/Trend exposure through the Mar 8 lows showing just what that looks like

Why don’t Futures Market Blow Ups… Blow Up the futures markets?

A Chinese Tycoon can’t meet margin on $2 Billion in Nickel Losses, what happens next?

A quick thread 🧵 1/n

Here's the move in Nickel over on the LME (London Metals Exchange) that's got everyone talking

Would you believe "VOL" is down YTD....

Great piece by the best Vol guys not on VolTwit (Zed and Devin of Convexitas)

convexitas.com/insights/keep-…

Here's the highlights = VIX isn't VOL

The VIX index is up almost 100% year-to-date while most SPX options are flat to down on the year...If you were to pick almost any call / put with a maturity of more than 3-months in the SPX, the volatility of that option is flat to down.

A quick little thread on those invested in “Long Vol” strats not seeing a big January when the Nas was down -14% at lows, SP down -5% for the month, and VIX up 44% -> 1/12 First of all, on the VIX was up 40% angle, @bennpeifert will haunt you – don’t quote VIX movements in percents

https://twitter.com/bennpeifert/status/1216021932631445504

Ok, quick thread on futures "leverage" in response to some replies out there in regards to 'stacking paper' and Fed presidents slinging "$1mm futures trades".

https://twitter.com/max_arbitrage/status/1438178483063205894

1. Let's use S&P 500 as example, and assume the futures price is around 4,500.

The futures are worth $50*the price, so at price of 4,500 - you get $225,000 in exposure.

Something interesting is happening in the Alts space of late, with more and more Alts folks moving into stocks.

Is this creating somewhat of a hidden stock market bid, hiding here in plain sight?

Time for a thread

👇👇👇 1) How do you watch the US stock market go up 300%+ over the past 12 years when you’re doing non-correlated alternative investments which may or may not produce positive returns at the same time?

Looks like the good folks at JP Morgan didn't take the time to listen to my pod with @bennpeifert where we dissected this particular market "claim"

a quick thread:

https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1364553906970365953

As noted in the JP Morgan note - and by anyone/everyone trading volatility since Q3 last year - implied (essentially what you pay for vol via options) has been higher than realized (the vol you actually get in the market's ups/downs) for a persistently long amount of time.