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Market insights · Macro & geopolitics · Tracking what moves price before it moves. Daily analysis ↓
Apr 20 8 tweets 2 min read
Day 51 of the Hormuz crisis.
Brent $94. Consensus: "priced in."

My read: the biggest macro dislocation of 2026 is loading — and positioning is brutally wrong.

Here's what happens in the next 48 hours 🧵 Image The IMF warned this week: "We're not going back to the Goldilocks scenario." ( CNBC )

Translation: even with a deal, the inflation premium is structural.

13M bpd shut-in. 500M+ barrels of cumulative lost supply. CNBC A deal tomorrow still needs months to clear the backlog.