Labour needs to learn from the re-emergence of Trump - failure of the US to quickly take action against his insurrection. It cannot rely on a second term. Suggesting key reforms must be delayed because there is too much else to do would be a mistake and risky.
Instead the …1/ Party needs to identify all the issues that need addressing and work out how this can be done. Quite possibly the party and the civil service don’t have enough capacity. So @Keir_Starmer should be bolder and having identified relevant areas use the expertise of commissions.. 2/

@drdankeown @desertrose1969 There are no excuses anymore. Brexit data is out and the bill is enormous. If you cannot see that then it’s either wilful ignorance or a lack of intellectual capacity.

If you want a summary as a refresher it follows below 🧵with some of the highlights. 1/n @drdankeown @desertrose1969 Brexit Lowlights

Currency devaluation 10%
All imports more expensive including oil, gas and 50% of our food.

Loss of 15% of exports.

Loss of 4-5% of GDP ie £100BN+pa giving tax revenue loss £30BN+pa
That’s 50%+ of our defence budget - no wonder Putin supports Brexit.

2/

@NJ_Timothy I agree. That means investment in education, science and infrastructure.
Brexit is not only well on the way to killing off automotive our once most valuable manufacturing export, discourages investment generally, while losing us the EU Medicines Agency, loss of access to 1/ @NJ_Timothy pan EU scientific collaboration and data. Harder for our exporters into their major markets. Labour shortages crippling the economy particularly farming. Adding billions to chemical industry accreditation. There is no benefit, even the new trade deals have not materialised
2/

Anyone who like @iainmartin1 tells you £30BN spent on Test and Waste is legitimate because the numbers have been audited doesn’t understand what an audit actually involves. Simply put it is the matching of documents/invoices to accounting records. An audit per se does not
1/ say if the expenditure was necessary, good value for money, if the wages paid were exorbitant, or whether competitive tenders were used in the procurement process. It merely shows that Dido Harding was able to provide documents to show how the money was spent. And the reality
2/

@andrew_lilico Brexit Fables. The Brexiter Pig Farmer.

A pig farmer decided to build a high wall around his land to keep out the gypsies. It only had a very narrow gate to stop their caravans getting thru. But when one day the farmer tried to take his pigs to the market he discovered
1/ @andrew_lilico that they too wouldn’t fit thru the narrow gate and so couldn’t get his drove to the market. He ended up incinerating most them.
Next year he only raised a few pigs on his own farm, those he could eat himself and sell locally, and leased a field from a neighbouring farmer.
2/

Ukraine the Latest Podcast Day 250
Excellent as always, long interview with UKR NGO trying to get back kidnapped civilians, upsetting.
The behaviour of RF during this war should not be any surprise to students of history. In WW2 they used rape as a weapon against civilians
1/ With the women of East Prussia sustaining a particularly high incidence of this brutality. Stealing the personal possessions of civilians and assets of the state and removing them to Soviet Union. Using their own mobilised men as cannon-fodder. Taking men to SU as slave labour
2/

Some of you may remember excepts from a letter I received from a young Russian woman I made friends with on holiday in Corfu where we toured the island on my motorbike. We have been corresponding recently and these are excerpts of her letter. 1/ I know that there are already many men from our city who didnt return from the war.
They were professional soldiers.
Until now none of my friends or colleagues were drafted, but I’m afraid soon it may happen.

2/

@desertrose1969 A lad here but one married to a menopause expert doctor. One who has listened to countless stories of the positive benefits of HRT which is only replacing hormones you body used to produce. Helps in countering symptoms such as depression, brain fog, libido, itchy skin, bladder 1/ @desertrose1969 problems, vaginal dryness, joint aches, burning mouth, gum disease etc. Benefits also extend to cardiovascular and reducing osteoporosis. Try looking at Balance Menopause App. In some circumstances doctors in addition to oestrogen and progesterone will give testosterone too. 2/

Since I went on Twitter shortly after EURef I have been warning of the risks Brexit posed to the jewels of our economy; the City and our Automotive industry.

This long 🧵 focuses on Automotive where I have pan-European expertise, and where export volumes have halved.

1/ Our automotive industry is one we could truly be proud of. We have Formula One BMW Rolls-Royce Bentley Aston Martin Land Rover Nissan and many more. We have an industry that could truly compete on the world stage.

2/

Exemptions would exist for professionals, particularly medics etc
There will need to be money spent on accommodation although plenty already exists. And we will be investing in British agriculture which Brexit has treated appallingly.
6. We will have fulfilled our obligation to provide sanctuary and they will have earned themselves a future.

Any Brexiter who objects will be required to report to his local farm.

5.30 AM Sharp.

7.

The RW justify Rwanda by saying to the left, well what is your plan?

And tbf I’ve not heard a plan.

The left and centre are less keen to mention where these poor people will go.

So this my plan that attempts to find a solution that both halves of the country can live with 🧵 1 Five years in the Foreign Legion gets you French citizenship. So is it unreasonable to expect fit, working age asylum seekers to earn their right of abode in Britain. We have labour shortages in agriculture, and that’s where there is space to house them.
2

Debates about how @Keir_Starmer and @UKLabour tackle Brexit has been raging forever & two of my favourite accounts @nicktolhurst and @AndrewPRLevi shared their thoughts on it recently. Many of us would love to reverse Brexit immediately, But this is not the best battleground 1/x The Tories have offered us at least three core areas to be exploited that should be key fertile battlegrounds on which to defeat the Tories without focusing too much on Brexit.

1. Division of Britain
2. NHS
3. Probity & corruption

2/x

The West needs to rethink its strategy in UKR instead of congratulating itself on how it helped those brave Ukrainians and gloating over the disorganised Russians. It must move from containment to defeating the Russians and driving them out of UKR.
1/ Despite sanctions time is on Putin’s side. He will be able to reorganise, re supply and ultimately take advantage of the huge disparity in men, tanks, warships and aircraft. There are no more Ukrainians but there are a lot more Russians. With ever more powerful propaganda
2/

No one seems interested in the size of the fines. I bloody well am. Some huge fines were imposed on people with little money and I want to know the amount people at these 20 parties were fined. Retweet if you agree.
@metpoliceuk Met won’t want to release size of fines & who was fined because they will be challenged, expected to justify in the light of other (often excessive) fines, their position as lawmakers & being repeat offenders. Met have shown itself subservient to HMG & will do the bare minimum.

@Haggis_UK Let’s just challenge the logic of @michaelgove’s defence here, that he had no suspicions about Ledbedev.

1. Since 1945 the most consistent threat to the West has been Russia.
2. The enormous wealth of a few Russians was obviously stolen.
3. The oligarchs were only able

1/ @Haggis_UK @michaelgove to steal (and or keep) Russian assets with the support of Putin.
4. It is known that oligarchs hold Putin’s assets as proxies.

Prima facie therefore any Russian oligarch should be considered a potential national security risk. Particularly if they are getting involved

2/

Putin had signalled his intention for some time to rebuild the Russian empire both his words & his invasions, Georgia, Donbas etc.
So why now, Putin into Ukraine?
Simply, his groundwork was complete.
The Trump presidency ushered in a weakening of apparent US commitment to NATO 1/ relations with western leaders were strained. Trump himself was a leader who not only divided America but pursued self-interest ahead of national eg his telephone call with Zekenskyy re Biden. Further his previous links to Russian mafia, dodgy business dealings etc made him 2/

The longer I look at Ukraine War the more convinced I am we must help Ukraine to win sooner rather than later. A lengthy conflict will not only likely result in more death, destruction, longer instability but greater risk of escalation especially if Putin can overcome Ukraine 1/ While many, myself included, don’t think Putin’s current strategy would win LT, we should not ignore he could call for general mobilisation and that brings far larger forces into play. We also don’t know if China over time would see advantage in supporting Russia. 2/

If the perceived wisdom is that only the Russians can remove Putin, and that over time he cannot hope to win in Ukraine then the only decision is whether to go for a long or shorter war in Ukraine.
A shorter war probably results in less lives lost, less environmental damage, 1/ less damage to Ukraine’s infrastructure, less damage to the world’s economy etc. Less time for Russian general mobilisation.
That then begs the question is Putin more vulnerable internally to a relatively short time loss in Ukraine or to one protracted over years?
2/

A few years back I met an intelligent, educated and attractive Russian woman who rode pillion with me around Corfu for a couple of days. As the Ukraine crisis unfolded I wrote to her, and the following are excerpts of her reply to give an insight…1/ I am horrified, I just can not believe it is happening, nightmare ….All normal people are in shock, they are crying. We are feeling anger, shame and fear. Nobody could believe that can happen. Nobody wants war, many people have families and friends in Ukraine. 2/

What I find so disappointing about this tweet is that it clearly demonstrates a failure to grasp the multi faceted aspects to Brexit, far beyond trade. That a number of “players” identified the “benefits of Brexit” for themselves and pursued their objectives to our detriment 1/

https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1497481231239368709

1. Putin invested in Brexit with money (Banks?) bribery, and social media and MSM influencing to split EU/UK and gain geopolitical advantage.
2. US libertarians financed Cambridge Analytica & helped @Dominic2306 in his subversion of the population thru SMedia manipulation 2/

If my amateur assessment is right, that Putin loses lots of men in Kyiv street fighting, his supply lines under attack, Ukrainian resistance remains strong, weapons from the West come in, his economy squeezed, Putin realises he cannot control the country, then what? 1/ Putin needs an out. He will start to offer peace, but from a position of increasing weakness…
He will withdraw East. He needs something, some “success” to show the Russians. He will try to hold and keep all of Donbas. 3x what he had. The challenge to Ukraine and the West 2/