Macron speaks of a morning of excellent exchanges here in Paris with Rishi Sunak - the first such high level bilateral summit in 5 years. The French Presidents speaking of new beginnings between France and the UK. Speaking of the challenges in Europe facing both countries. Looking to find « concrete solutions » together

Joint statement by EU Commission President von der Leyen and PM Sunak👇meeting in person in UK tomorrow. Widely viewed as last step before announcing revised joint deal on contentious post Brexit NIreland Protocol BUT /1 ec.europa.eu/commission/pre… If we’ve learned ANYTHING after years of painfully difficult negotiations on the Protocol - never count your chickens .. /2

Leopards first. US Abrams tanks come later but signal from US is important. Though Berlin denies was a precondition to it giving the green light to allow its heavy tanks to be delivered to Ki’iv. Germany clearly did not want to be sole main source of battle tanks to Ukraine /1

https://twitter.com/nickschifrin/status/1618013758974222336

a) Russia making all sorts of threatening noises. Many Germans fear escalation of conflict potentially beyond Ukraine‘s borders. Keen to feel nuclear power US beside them. /2

German Chancellor Scholz has raised eyebrows at home + abroad by deciding to travel to China this Friday -the first visit by a western leader since president Xi further cemented his hold on power. Today Scholz’s foreign minister publicly instructed him../1 spiegel.de/politik/deutsc… To make Germany’s ‘new China policy’ clear, insisting on fair trade/business conditions, human rights and international norms. Just as Europe is weaning itself off energy dependency on Russia, critics worry Germany is continuing to prioritise lucrative trade with China over /2

Norwegian energy giant Equinor has reported a spike in profits thanks to spiralling oil+gas prices, exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Norway is now biggest energy exporter to UK + EU after the bloc drastically reduced imports from Russia /1 Norway is making huge profits and as of meeting with European Commission yesterday, is still resistent to idea of accepting a price cap on exports to EU in exchange for contracts bbc.com/news/world-eur… /2

Northern Ireland is on course for fresh elections, possibly set for Dec after no power sharing government was formed following the last poll in May. The Democratic Unionist Party refused to participate in protest, it said, over the Brexit agreement on NIreland (the Protocol) /1 But many in NIreland don’t believe new elections will solve the impasse. There’s fear a cycle of vote-impasse-vote could now follow. Parties have 24 weeks to form a power-sharing gov after an elex. UK+EU negotiations on finding solutions to problems w Protocol have re-started /2

“Ice Age” between France+ Germany warn their media ahead of Macron-Scholz lunch in France today. There’s talk of the EU’s “Franco-German motor” “spluttering” or “coming off the road”. So how bad is the spat between EU’s 2 largest powers, at time of crisis on continent? /1 Bad enough they’ve downgraded what was planned as a meeting of their 2 cabinets to a bilateral. The reason: too many points of difference between the 2 sides. Macron publicly warned Scholz last week not to allow Germany to get ‘isolated’. It’s less about differences of opinion/2

Most EU leaders privately breathed sigh of relief when it became clear Boris Johnson-viewed in Brussels as an unreliable, divisive figure–wouldn't be returning to Number Ten. Rishi Sunak also voted for Brexit but EU figures see him as a "grown up" and a pragmatist. They /1 quietly favoured him over Liz Truss on campaign trail this summer. EU wants to continue working closely with UK on Ukraine. They also hope to combat energy prices together and to cooperate on solving the thorny issue of the Protocol (post Brexit deal on Northern Ireland) /2

Von der Leyen going for her EU unity - internal and with Ukraine - message , set to dominate her state of the Union address, dressed in EU and Ukraine flag colours - blue and bright yellow. Olena Zelenska wife of President Zelensky is guest of honour But energy war will make headlines today, rather than new European Commission pledges for more sanctions against Russia - something Ukraine has been urging for. On energy - there’s a big split between countries that want to slap a price cap on Russian gas , and others

Now EU leaders have reached political agreement to ban 90% of oil imports from Russia by end of the year .. they’re split over gas imports. So many EU countries are hugely reliant on Russian gas .. and EU consumers already suffering spiralling fuel costs AND YET.. /1 Baltics, Poland keen on ban asap. As EU mulls a 7th pkg of Russia sanctions it‘s finding it increasingly hard to punish Russia economically while not incurring too much pain for EU businesses and consumers /2

Finland‘s Foreign Minister tells me there‘s a parliamentary majority here in favour of NATO membership. Helsinki will likely formally announce its preference to join the alliance at the beginning of next week /1 It’s a huge about turn for Pekka Haavisto - known in Helsinki as an advocate for closer cooperation in Moscow but for him - as for the Finnish public, Russia‘s invasion of Ukraine changed everything „The mindset of many Finnish people is very security orientated,“ he told me /2

EU carefully watching UK government in case it decides not to adhere to the Northern Ireland Protocol part of the Brexit agreement. EU Commission VP Šefčovič has called on UK gov to “dial down the rhetoric” and “be honest about the deal they signed” following elections inNIreland Where nationalist Sinn Fein became the largest party and the Democratic Unionists suggest they won’t go into power-sharing government with them unless the Northern Ireland Protocol is fundamentally changed. Sinn Fein wants the Protocol to stay, not be abolished.

Last night‘s much anticipated Big Head to Head debate between presidential hopefuls Macron and Le Pen will likely fail to dramatically affect the outcome of Sunday‘s vote. Le Pen was smoother, calmer, better prepared than 2017. Macron attacked skilfully /1 bfmtv.com/politique/elec… 49% of those asked in France‘s BFMTV poll thought Macron came out on top. Half of them thought he was the more arrogant of the two. An image he‘s trying to fight in order to woo floating or apathetic voters .. /2

NEW: Germany is showing new openness to oil sanctions against Russia - according to diplomatic sources off the record as debate still ongoing. Pressure is mounting on Berlin, especially as it dithers (again) over weapons deliveries (specifically tanks) to help Ukrainian army /1 It’s a how - no longer an if - as regards EU oil sanctions. The 27 EU member countries are each deliberating whether it should be a phased ban on Russian oil OR /2

Will Brussels go for oil sanctions against Russia or not? That is THE big question ahead of EU leaders’ summit on Thursday. Sanctions to date haven’t stopped Russian attacks in Ukraine. Former iron curtain EU countries demand the oil ban. Germany (again) is more reluctant /1 EU energy purchases line Vladimir Putin’s war chest day by day. The EU is more reliant (+ some EU countries eg Germany far more than others) on Russian gas and oil than the US, also UK. EU leaders worry about sanctions impact on energy prices back home. They’re already high /2

The Elysee Palace (French equivalent of No10) says Putin seemed unwilling to end attack on Ukraine in 1.5 hour long call he had today with Pres Macron + German Chancellor Scholz. Thought to be Macron's 10th Putin call since the invasion. Described as a difficult discussion.. /1 France and Germany demanded an immediate ceasefire and for Russia to start negotiations with Ukraine afterwards. They said an end to the hostilities was needed before serious talks could begin /2

Will the EU “weaponise” energy as part of its package of sanctions against Moscow and as Ukraine’s President Zelensky has asked? Some thoughts from me: bbc.com/news/world-eur… /1 After historic military and refugee decisions, the next seismic change bubbling in Brussels is provoked by a simple question: What's the point of punitive EU financial sanctions if Vladimir Putin's war chest is refilled on a daily basis with oil and gas revenues? /2

NEW Germany has dropped its block on the delivery of German-made lethal weapons to Ukraine via third countries. It’s a major shift in policy for Germany and could allow an increase of European military assistance to Ukraine /1 Many weapons in Europe are at least partly German-manufactured which means Berlin has a say on their use and export. Until now the German government blocked lethal weapons being sent to conflict zones /2

In Brussels, European Commission has been ‚finalising targeted sanctions‘ following President Putin recognition on the two breakaway regions in E.Ukraine and movement of troops thereas ‚peacekeepers‘. EU sanctions expected to be targeted at this stage and v much in line with US/1 There’s been a lot of close coordination. Brussels doesn’t expect a formal announcement of the sanctions today as the package has to be endorsed unanimously by 27 member states BUT /2

Germany is under the spotlight over attitudes towards the Russia-Ukraine crisis for a number of reasons: 1) in contrast to US, UK + Baltic States, Germany has angered Ukraine by refusing to send weapons . This weekend, German Defence Minister said../1 tagesschau.de/inland/innenpo… Germany would send a field hospital to Ukraine in Feb. She said Germany would do “everything it could to diffuse the crisis” but insisted delivering weapons wouldn’t “currently contribute" to achieving that goal.Ukraine accused Germany of ‘encouraging’ Putin with its stance /2

German foreign minister is in Kiev today. Then heading to Moscow. Tensions in EU rising over Russian intentions re (hybrid) warfare and Ukraine. Over weekend Sweden moved hundreds of troops to strategically important Gotland island as Baltic states have long urged. Denmark .. /1 increased its presence in region last week. Situation has reignited debate in Sweden as to whether it should join NATO. Most EU countries are already members. But -as so often with foreign policy and Eu - member states are not united over attitudes towards Russia. Washington.. /2