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Bobby Kogan Profile picture
Bobby Kogan
@BBKogan
Senior Director of Federal Budget Policy for @amprog. Formerly: OMB46, Transition46, @SenateBudget (Murray & Sanders). CBO and OMB’s biggest fan! Personal acct.
Aug 28 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
New from me, @Brendan_Duke, and @jessicaxvela:

The Trump tax cuts lost revenue, no matter how you look at it.

And in fact, they led to record low revenue in the modern tax era given an economy with this level of employment.
americanprogress.org/article/the-tr…
Image Losing revenue is of course the point. The people who enact tax cuts do so because they believe the government should tax less and do less.

But they're uncomfortable with the fact that they caused deficits, so they're left pretending the Trump tax cuts increased revenue.
Dec 8, 2023 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
I testified before the Ways and Means Subcommittee on Oversight.

One new stat I featured: the tax gap is bigger than the fiscal gap.

What does this mean? If, starting tomorrow, everyone voluntarily paid all the taxes they legally owed, debt/GDP would be declining indefinitely. The fiscal gap measures the net present value of how much primary (non-interest) deficit you'd need to stabilize debt/GDP. Over 30 years, it's 1.7% of GDP.

The tax gap measures how much legally-owed tax revenue is not collected each year. It's roughly 2.7%.
Sep 23, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
House GOP is demanding - or else they’ll shut down the government - that the following be cut 27%:
-Social Security Administration
-Nutrition assistance for poor newborns
-Money to ensure our drinking water is safe
-Most federal education money
-Federal cancer and stroke research Clarification: they’re calling to cut the administration that runs Social Security and ensures checks go out on time, in the right amount, to the right people by 27%, not the benefit level.
Apr 17, 2023 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
I watched McCarthy's speech today & ran 13 different scenarios for budget caps. Here are the two I think are most fair.

Scenario 1 is based on the words he said. Relative to current services for non-defense less VA Medical care, there'd be an immediate 31% cut, growing to 57%. Bar graph showing the perce... In the first scenario, the plan McCarthy proposed would lead to an immediate cut of $206 billion below what's necessary to keep up with current services. Over the decade, NDD less VA Medical Care would be down nearly $3.5 trillion. Needless to say, but a 57% cut is not small.