Once Nord Stream 2 is completed, Russia says it is not possible to ship gas via Ukraine due to technical issues. Note that we wouldn't see Putin ordering cut-off or anything like that. What would be Germany's reaction?
2/4
Feb 16, 2021 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
News is surfacing about Germany’s offer to US administration to protect Nord Stream 2 from American sanctions. My quick take on this (quotes from the below @FT with my comments)
1/10
Germany aims for new deal with Washington on Nord Stream 2 ft.com/content/548067…
“One idea being floated is the concept of “snapbacks” — a mechanism that would allow Germany to shut off Nord Stream 2 if Russia puts pressure on Ukraine, say, by arbitrarily cutting supplies through its gas transit system”
2/10
Oct 7, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Szybki komentarz po decyzji prezesa UOKiK ws. NS2.
Zwraca oczywiście uwagę rekordowa wysokość kary, maksymalna dopuszczana przez prawo (do 10% obrotu, co w przypadku Gazpromu daje aż ~29 mld zł). Warto jednak podkreślić, dlaczego zdecydowano się aż na taką jej wysokość 1/5
Wynika to z faktu, że pomimo braku zgody UOKiK, spółki zaangażowane w NS2 w żaden sposób nie zmieniły swojego postępowania, a wszystkie ich działania zostały podporządkowane obejściu prawa, by stworzyć "de facto" joint venture
2/5
Oct 6, 2020 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
EIA's Oct short term energy outlook:
"US LNG exports averaged 4.9 Bcfd in Sep, an increase of 1.2 Bcfd from Aug. Higher global forward prices indicate improving netbacks for buyers of US LNG in EUR &Asian markets for the upcoming fall&winter seasons" 1/8
eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
"The increased prices come amid expectations of natural gas demand recovery and potential LNG supply reductions because of maintenance at the Gorgon LNG plant in Australia. EIA forecasts that US LNG exports will return to pre-COVID levels by November 2020"
2/8
Oct 6, 2020 • 31 tweets • 6 min read
The assassination attempt on Navalny has sparked a heated debate within Germany on Nord Stream 2. Despite the growing criticism, 🇩🇪 leaders will maintain their support for the ~95%completed NS2. US sanctions remain the main threat to NS2. Read my @PISM_Poland bulletin&[THREAD] 1/
NS2 has been criticised by CEE countries, Denmark, the US, the European Parliament, and others. These concerns have long been ignored by 🇩🇪. The pipeline was promoted as a “business project”& the 🇩🇪 gov emphasized that it is not directly involved in the project
2/
Oct 5, 2020 • 35 tweets • 7 min read
Po próbie zabójstwa A.Nawalnego wzrasta krytyka wobec Nord Stream 2 w Niemczech. Pomimo to 🇩🇪 władze utrzymają swoje poparcie dla ukończenia gazociągu, a największym zagrożeniem dla finalizacji projektu pozostają sankcje USA. Polecam mój nowy biul. @PISM_Poland oraz [THREAD] 1/x
Pomimo, że budowa NS2 budzi od lat liczne kontrowersje poparcie niemieckiego rządu dla gazociągu (pomimo zastrzeżeń sojuszników a także np. KE / Parlamentu Europejskiego) pozostało niezachwiane. Jak dotychczas wyglądało wsparcie władz niemieckich dla NS2?
2/
Sep 17, 2020 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
Acc. to FT German finance min. reached out to US Treasury sec. with an offer: GER would spend up to €1bn to subsidise construction of 2 LNG terminals (to receive US LNG), expecting US to drop its opposition to Nord Stream 2 [THREAD] 1/14
ft.com/content/3d028b…@financialtimes1) This is understandable that Germany, makes such moves to defend NS2 (whether GER should defend NS2 is a different story). Germany assumed that it is possible to "make the deal" with Trump, who is driven by US economic interests, "America first", etc.
2/14
Sep 3, 2019 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Russian gas faces competition from US LNG also in Turkey. In 1H of 2019 import from Russia fell by 36% y-o-y (12.5 > 8 bcm) and import of US LNG increased by 360% (0,19 > 0,88 bcm)
Politico: "‘This is exactly what we should not do as the EU,’ says a top official".
In the next paragraphs we learn that "the top official" is a German, Klaus-Dieter Borchardt, the deputy director general of the EC’s DG Energy.
politico.eu/article/eu-dis…
K-D Borchardt: "It's not good for the EU because we should speak with one voice". Indeed, there is no official EU line regarding possible US sanctions. However, @EU_Commission commissioners on several occasions criticized Nord Stream 2 and its impact on i.a. Energy Union's goals.
