Blake Herzinger | Profile picture
MD @ip_advisors | Research Fellow @USSC | @navy_reserve | @cimsec | Asian Security | ex-@AEIfdp @twitter @PacificForum @PacificFleet | Proud Idahoan
Aug 6, 2023 11 tweets 2 min read
If you want a vignette about the potential and effectiveness of Russian propaganda, a person I’ve long counted as a friend approached me yesterday and clearly wanted to talk about the war. 🧵 1/11 The last time I’d seen this guy, a Russian expatriate, was at a fundraiser for Ukraine at the outset of the war. He spent a lot of money that night, and repeatedly expressed his confusion and sadness over the invasion. /2
Apr 22, 2023 4 tweets 1 min read
This is a bit silly. The US has been arming and training Ukraine since 2014. There were a lot of missed opportunities to do better here over several administrations. This isn’t a “Biden” problem. Have we forgotten the whole “I’m holding up weapons to Ukraine for personal gain and to settle political scores” thing that happened in the last administration?
Apr 22, 2023 4 tweets 1 min read
Which is why I’m curious as to the reasons that the “Arm Taiwan now” crowd isn’t giving Biden’s team any credit for saying no to requests that don’t align to US vision for a defense of Taiwan.

Just kidding, I’m not curious because I know why. Instead, Taiwan is being pushed toward the asymmetric solution they once embraced, and which Washington agrees would have a reasonable chance of success.
Apr 22, 2023 19 tweets 3 min read
Nobody is saying this and it’s a gross over-simplification typical of this argument. In fact I am clearly in support of a distributed, asymmetric defense of Taiwan and have written about that quite a bit. I, and others, have said that these things are not such an emergency delivery item that we need to stop supporting Ukraine.
Apr 21, 2023 4 tweets 1 min read
The next person to "iTs NOt a PuBLiC uTiLiTY" gets blocked. This is really, really bad (and entirely foreseeable). It is a private company now, yes. But it's a lot like the people that can't help but shout "It's not a democracy, it's a republic." It's true, but largely unimportant.
Apr 19, 2023 4 tweets 2 min read
A few thoughts from me in @ForeignPolicy on why it’s not great that some of our politicians uncritically consume and amplify 🇷🇺 and 🇨🇳 military propaganda. If you liked the thread, come back for the article. Sadly “soft handed chickenhawks” doesn’t make another appearance but I hope it’s a useful contribution to the conversation, particularly in light of CNO Gilday’s comments this week.
Mar 13, 2023 5 tweets 1 min read
“For the sake of “avoiding escalation,” @elonmusk is effectively reducing Ukraine’s ability to oppose Russian forces’ attempted conquest of Ukraine, and he is doing it on Washington’s dime and counter to Washington’s interests.”… In October, Musk suggested that tensions over Taiwan might be best resolved by handing control of Taiwan to Beijing.
Feb 7, 2023 12 tweets 2 min read
Critics angry that Biden didn’t order DoD to shoot down the 🇨🇳 🎈 earlier need to revisit basic risk management principles. Given the DoD assessment that the balloon did not represent a new surveillance threat, as well as “other measures” hinted at that prevented it from accomplishing a collection mission, this was a 🇺🇸 opportunity.
Feb 6, 2023 7 tweets 2 min read
Absolutely on point. It 👏🏻 is 👏🏻 a 👏🏻 balloon. It is affected by wind, it is far from any point of control, machines break, etc etc. Assuming this was a flex before the now-canceled visit, or assertion of Chinese strength, is blowing this wildly out of proportion and, I think, far less credible than “this is a big screw-up” in terms of explanatory value.
Feb 5, 2023 5 tweets 1 min read
This isn’t the case and would be impossible to justify. Under international law, all transiting aircraft are guaranteed freedom of overflight in international airspace seaward of the territorial sea. Where Beijing has declared an ADIZ, this should absolutely not be regarded as sovereign airspace. An aircraft entering an ADIZ with no intention of entering national airspace continues to enjoy unimpeded freedom of overflight.
Jan 17, 2023 6 tweets 1 min read
I’m in complete agreement with the idea but crew size and composition would need to change drastically to make this happen.… Right now the ESB’s need a civilian mariner crew to drive the ship and execute all engineering tasks.