If you want a vignette about the potential and effectiveness of Russian propaganda, a person I’ve long counted as a friend approached me yesterday and clearly wanted to talk about the war. 🧵 1/11 The last time I’d seen this guy, a Russian expatriate, was at a fundraiser for Ukraine at the outset of the war. He spent a lot of money that night, and repeatedly expressed his confusion and sadness over the invasion. /2

This is a bit silly. The US has been arming and training Ukraine since 2014. There were a lot of missed opportunities to do better here over several administrations. This isn’t a “Biden” problem.

https://twitter.com/garrisonmoratto/status/1649597341211705344

Have we forgotten the whole “I’m holding up weapons to Ukraine for personal gain and to settle political scores” thing that happened in the last administration?

Which is why I’m curious as to the reasons that the “Arm Taiwan now” crowd isn’t giving Biden’s team any credit for saying no to requests that don’t align to US vision for a defense of Taiwan.

Just kidding, I’m not curious because I know why.

https://twitter.com/jbcohen92/status/1649587693024604160

Instead, Taiwan is being pushed toward the asymmetric solution they once embraced, and which Washington agrees would have a reasonable chance of success.

Nobody is saying this and it’s a gross over-simplification typical of this argument. In fact I am clearly in support of a distributed, asymmetric defense of Taiwan and have written about that quite a bit.

https://twitter.com/alex_agvg/status/1649561667804471296

I, and others, have said that these things are not such an emergency delivery item that we need to stop supporting Ukraine.

The next person to "iTs NOt a PuBLiC uTiLiTY" gets blocked. This is really, really bad (and entirely foreseeable).

https://twitter.com/jsrailton/status/1649146273121857554

It is a private company now, yes. But it's a lot like the people that can't help but shout "It's not a democracy, it's a republic." It's true, but largely unimportant.

A few thoughts from me in @ForeignPolicy on why it’s not great that some of our politicians uncritically consume and amplify 🇷🇺 and 🇨🇳 military propaganda.
buff.ly/3mUvXhA If you liked the thread, come back for the article. Sadly “soft handed chickenhawks” doesn’t make another appearance but I hope it’s a useful contribution to the conversation, particularly in light of CNO Gilday’s comments this week.

https://twitter.com/BDHerzinger/status/1646328628156977152

“For the sake of “avoiding escalation,” @elonmusk is effectively reducing Ukraine’s ability to oppose Russian forces’ attempted conquest of Ukraine, and he is doing it on Washington’s dime and counter to Washington’s interests.”
usatoday.com/story/opinion/… In October, Musk suggested that tensions over Taiwan might be best resolved by handing control of Taiwan to Beijing.

Critics angry that Biden didn’t order DoD to shoot down the 🇨🇳 🎈 earlier need to revisit basic risk management principles. Given the DoD assessment that the balloon did not represent a new surveillance threat, as well as “other measures” hinted at that prevented it from accomplishing a collection mission, this was a 🇺🇸 opportunity.

Absolutely on point. It 👏🏻 is 👏🏻 a 👏🏻 balloon. It is affected by wind, it is far from any point of control, machines break, etc etc.

https://twitter.com/simonbchen/status/1622306748479455238

Assuming this was a flex before the now-canceled visit, or assertion of Chinese strength, is blowing this wildly out of proportion and, I think, far less credible than “this is a big screw-up” in terms of explanatory value.

This isn’t the case and would be impossible to justify. Under international law, all transiting aircraft are guaranteed freedom of overflight in international airspace seaward of the territorial sea.

https://twitter.com/DerekJGrossman/status/1621992219354996736

Where Beijing has declared an ADIZ, this should absolutely not be regarded as sovereign airspace. An aircraft entering an ADIZ with no intention of entering national airspace continues to enjoy unimpeded freedom of overflight.

I’m in complete agreement with the idea but crew size and composition would need to change drastically to make this happen. thedrive.com/the-war-zone/n… Right now the ESB’s need a civilian mariner crew to drive the ship and execute all engineering tasks.