Delays in underground mining as well as some deferred open-pit metal production have caused an increase in estimated incremental funding requirement to $3.6 billion from the $2.4 billion expected in July. mining.com/turquoise-hill…
“Total costs for the move underground is now approaching $8 billion, up from the Rio’s original budget of $5.3 billion set in 2016.”
I promise you many #uranium projects are gonna do this as well but be much more extreme. By the time many of our beloved little uranium companies actually update feasibility studies and update costs 2-3 more times along the road to production we will see capex 2-3x
FYI. I’ve heard from a few people that @RealRickRule said the the easy gains have been had in #uranium and is pushing #gold as the better play.
I’ll let Rick chime in if he wants to discuss things. But I’m pretty sure he told me he was 2-3 years early last uranium cycle and sold mostly out a year before the peak. Probably happy with $65-75/lb
Yes he made a great pass on $pdn but we at Sprott under my recommendation bought in at $0.08 basically at the start of the bull and rode it to $3.50 before selling any and ultimately to $6+ for final shares
Estimates seem to vary considerably. Standord.edu says: Nuclear is by far the best and I wouldn’t argue with them. There is no way and hell we can ramp up solar and wind to replace coal. Especially with out a massive investment in storage.
One of the benefits of deciding to focus entirely on investing for my sell from 1998-2002 then work only buy side at a hedge fund from 2002-2013 then return to just investing for myself 2013-2021 is I’ve been able to spend as much time as I want reading. (And I like reading)
the bulk of the last 24 years I haven’t had to engage in sales meetings, presentation crafting, filings, reports, staffing and or management. Big reason I left and decided to retire is I simply didn’t enjoy dealing with all the “bullshit”. Was always just interested in investing
Predicting a market crash is very tricky. Especially because everytime the market/economy starts down what looks to be a crash cycle, central bankers print trillions more than they did to prevent the last crash.
I believe this cycle commodity bull will see a melt up of epic proportions because market players will begin to focus on the inevitability of economic shocks being met with more and more trillions of spending. Especially infrastructure spreading to retool the economy
The ‘crash paths’ we will continually be heading down will be a result of blow out commodity prices and inflation as industries will struggle to pass on costs and the broader economy will face a cash crunch.
Today I bought about 600k shares Greenland Resources. I probably got just over 2mm shares with an average price of 40+ cents. I’m not gonna comment further on this but since I’m gaining so many followers and plan to comment on this company a lot I feel I should mention it
Now before I’ve got my full fill. I’d like to get 3mm shares under 50c. But won’t pay more than 65
This is one of my 10x plus 10 year pics. Don’t be lazy go the website and see what they have. Molybdenum will make an all time high this commodity bull (for fucking sure) and this company will 20x plus.
Been thinking more about what’s happening with SPUT $u.un $u.u $spruuf
The impact of the shares no longer being approved for trading in the USA via OTC is nearly entirely to blame for the current down trend. Here’s why and what happened: (securities lawyers can help here)
Just a couple weeks ago SPUT $sruuf was shut down from being able to trade OTC (over the counter) USA by many brokerages. This happened because of a rule change for foreign funds and disclosures/approvals required by USA regulators and USA brokers.
When Sprott took over management of Uranium Participation Corp they converted it to a Trust (fund) and added the ATM abilities. It was at first able to trade in the USA but due to a rule change and Sprott not filing a “KID” doc and getting approval to distribute this “Fund”
Shanxi is the coal hub of China. Produced nearly 1bln tonnes of coal per year. But also has wash plant capacity of 1.8bln tonnes. This flood and mining / plant closures could become absolutely crazy for the coal market
To put it in relative terms the USA produces 1.1-1.2 billion tonnes of coal. We don’t know total capacity actually going off line here but it’s obvious that the coal market was already at record tightness with record pricing.
This is the sort of event that could double coal prices again and also take global natural gas prices up another 50% or more. It’s the ‘perfect storm’ for the coal market. With China and Europe already critically short coal and just heading into winter it’s gonna get lit
“After $6.3T of deficit spending in 2020-2022 and $4.7T of Fed balance sheet expansion since late 2019 - the probability of another $2T spending bill…”
Sometimes read these numbers and am left stunned. Meanwhile $40bln buys all public uranium assets
The money creation craze of this era is gonna blow up in everyone’s face. It’s created a totally distorted mispricing of assets. It’s truly stunning. Just speechless sometimes. Can’t overstate how truly nuts this is. Future generations will read about this time in awe…
We are living in one of the most extreme mania’s of all time. The fiat currency bubble. So many paper billionaires and multi-millionaires. But soon we will find out how bare the cupboards are and a historic devaluation of paper assets vs real assets will occur
I delved into global macro economics in the late 1990's and invested in the 2000-2010 commodity boom in large part based on my belief in China's and India's economy booming and their demand growth taking off. The resource bear market looked to be ending & US tech was overvalued
Today's global marco picture seems very similar but with some distinct differences. The Nasdaq QQQ seems even more grossly overvalued to me than it was in 2000 along with SPX. Interest rates have been cut to nothing already and quantitative easing is now a well established tool
@hkuppy I wonder what will happen when China and Japan decide to ditch their usd holdings in the exchange for energy supplies and other strategic commodities ?
@hkuppy For decades I’ve wondered when the world the will world stop funding the USA trade deficit. I actually think this could be a catalyst. No one will want the inflation that’s coming. Ditching dollars, driving up prices in the USA will crash demand and free up supplies for China
@hkuppy At some point it’s gonna happen. It will be difficult for any government to survive run away inflation. Those with dollar hoards stand a better chance than those that run massive trade deficits
To put in in perspective Japan was consuming around 22 mln lbs per annum prior to the abrupt plant shutdowns post Fukushima. If your not long #uranium in a major way in anticipation of them reversing course soon, your going to miss out on the investment of the decade
Germany I think will scramble to buy 9mln lbs a year when they wake the fuck up and realize they must deal with the power crisis and cannot shut off their nuclear reactors. In fact they must get busy building Gen IV reactors
The is in a world that already has the largest supply / demand deficit of any commodity. Investing in this #uranium market at these values is 100% only available because governments move slowly and are generally incompetent
Hopefully this is the start of a good news trend for this micro cap #copper producer with a huge exploration potential. Stock barely trades and a picture of my dog licking itself would get more likes than their tweets. Should move higher as they ramp up production end of q4
Likely the relative strength today and also the larger ‘Butterfly Gartley’ pattern forming on the 2yr chart. While not perfect do in part to the huge volatility back in March 2020. It’s close enough
This pattern has made me more money over the years than any other TA. Not always the .786 often the .618. Works especially good to time adds in bull markets, at moving averages and with positive RSI divergences
Buying aggressively on the second leg down of a pull back in a bull market works extremely well because it is also a major shake out point for those that lack real conviction. It’s often a puke point for the fragile investor.
All over Europe there will be a rush to order new nuclear plants. We are just on the cusp a nuclear power revolution. The demand growth for #uranium will take all market pundits by surprise. thetimes.co.uk/article/energy…
The world needs to dramatically cut coal power output while trying to shift to electric vehicles. Power prices are going to continue to blow out and the public will vote with their wallets. We have zero choice in the matter and must ramp up nuclear power output, warp speed
The correction we’ve had in the #uranium space is a gift for new investors.
For those already in, we’ve learned a lot about the volatility and should be prepared for a lot more. We’ve seen how easily the #uranium price ramps up when SPUT $u.un is issuing shares at a premium
It’s amazing that gold can out perform the dow for the last 20 years by a large margin and get so little respect. I don’t think I’ve ever seen sentiment so poor as it is right now. Not even when it was sub $300 in the late 90’s.
I think the success off crypto is a major cause for its short term weakness. The crypto crowd likes shitting on 5000 years of history and mocking gold as as some relic. But they have no clue about it’s intrinsic value and the long term stability it provides.
Gold is my base currency and I measure all my investments against it. I’m nearly never in cash and use physical gold products vs cash in my brokerage accounts. This may be the age of crypto currencies and it’s nearly impossible to predict when a mania ends
The big resource macro tail wind that I’m hearing from industry guys is the lack of labour is surprising everyone. Everyone is struggling to attract and train mining industry people.
Was talking to a coal industry veteran today and it was very revealing
The record coal pricing in Australia is now moving around the globe. Port capacity is a huge issue everywhere along with rail, shipping etc. But, they industry is in shock how tough it is to try to hire and train people. Especially mining workers
Some of us aren’t so surprised that the industry has ‘lost a generation’. One comment that stuck with me is ‘we are competing with fedex’ for workers. Seems like the idea of tolling away in a 4-5ft coal seam aint as much fun as playing the video game ‘minecraft’
Part of me wants to say I’m surprised how much push back I’m getting publicly and privately for asking questions and just trying to get up to speed on $ccj $cco Cameco’s current position in the Uranium space, it’s pros cons, valuation and such.
But I’m not surprised because I’ve seen this and done this so many times over the years in so many sector’s. With a $10b market cap they have a lot of shareholders that want the stock to fly and they also have the most liquid options trading in the sector so lots of call owners
Anyhow, uranium Twitter should not be a cult where so called experts only say good things about all stocks and we work together to suck in as much capital as possible for the sector so that all boats lift together. Pushing for that sort of cohesive one sided culture…