$pdn looks good for a bounce. But, I'm sharing this long term 'price' action chart in part as a warning because these charts are so misleading. "The look how cheap junior resource companies are" is constantly being touted by bulls and demonstrated with historical share price charts. Fact is, so many companies are pure garbagio. Paladin on the other hand was an unbelievable performer last cycle. Still don't be fooled... Now look at this chart... I bought the hell out of $pdn back in late spring of 2020. To get my 13+ mln shares I had to buy the majority of the daily volume for a couple weeks. At the time, I believe I was the bulk of the reason the stock broke out from decade long death spiral. I ended up taking profits around the pre split $1 or $10 level post split around November of 2021. Why? I'll explain. Note the market cap blew out over $2bln
at that time

Inspired by @SahilBloom's excellent thread on wealth building, I wanted to share some additional perspectives from my personal experience - particularly on the role of energy management and authentic value creation. We mostly agree but I can't help bring my contrarian approach to these subjects with the hope of adding to the conversation.🧵 1/20 The uncomfortable truths about wealth building nobody talks about, and how to actually succeed in the long run. Time for some real talk.

Thread on #AI #bubble and my thoughts on how things will play out and the parallels to other bubbles like #y2k / dotcom / #internet bubble.

Back in the late 90’s I was working in tech with my main focus on upgrading firms to Microsoft desktops and servers Helping them go fully digital and for some it was the first time they got email address and websites. It was the exciting dawn of the Internet age. I learned a lot and eventually what I learned caused me to flip careers and go into investing/trading and I never looked back. From the very early on it was crystal clear that the Internet was going to explode in popularity and everyone would be using it for business and personal needs. It was a massive wave to ride and leading up to y2k it was a crazy gravy train for anyone working in the field

Ya know what is pretty funny… some people actual think they can trust what governments say.

As if #China is gonna announce that they are working towards selling all their USD bonds and tbills cause they finally realize the USA economy is a debt financed Ponzi scheme and the Federal reserve is 100% destined to print trillions upon trillions of dollars over the coming years! As if we should expect foreign holders of USD reserves to announce that they are going to be seeking to exit foreign currency holdings while avoiding trade imbalances and settling up and imbalances with precious metal reserves.

But the signs are all there…. The trend is there

In the mid 2000’s I went to Bejing and met with the then head of CITIC Bank.

I questioned why they thought it was a good idea to be producing so many goods, and then load them on boats and send them to the USA in exchange for money that was being created out of thin air? After lengthy exchanges on the subject along with some laughs it became clear to me that there was a few reasons for the accumulation.

1. USD was the global reserve currency and they had a goal of owning more US treasuries than Japan in part for the message it would send to the rest of the world, also to just have more than Japan for their collective egos but also to be able to have influence over the USA. (I saw this is the power from having the ability to threaten to dump the treasuries and mess with the Dollar and the USA economy, clearly a position of power)

#silver and #gold are running because the entire world knows that the USA is not going to get its deficit spending under control and even Yellen is now saying clearly that higher interest rates make it more difficult to pay down the debt. The goverment needs interest rates lowered and money debts monitized They’ve been acknowledging this for sometime. Here’s what she said last October…

The Treasury on Friday reported a $1.7 trillion federal budget deficit for fiscal 2023, the largest outside the COVID-19 pandemic years as revenues fell and outlays for Social Security, Medicare and interest costs rose sharply.
Yellen said that the U.S. debt servicing burden would be a "bigger challenge if the interest rate path stays higher."

Another thing I will touch on in the near future is the developing thoughts around assembly theory and evolution.

Darwin’s natural selection with random mutations missed the mark. It doesn’t take enough account for intentional evolution nature.com/articles/s4158… Turns out, Lamarckism who theorized a more complex intention related evolution (before Darwin) will likely be proven to be more correct.

Interestingly this relates to #epigenetics and the theory is also applicable to the #economj and the #markets and I’ll outline this in my upcoming book.

As I watch #gold and #silver stocks threatening to break out to new highs for this move, I’m also writing away on my #investment #book.

Here’s a little tidbit I was noodling on today…. The average #investor is out to lunch on what’s coming down the pipe as far as fiat currencies vs precious metals.

In the USA especially most people are completely oblivious to how spoiled they’ve become with their global reserve currency status.

They spend money like spoiled brats. Creating money at will. Zero fiscal discipline. Nearly no one willing to pay more taxes but most everyone bitter about the taxes they pay and the quality of services they receive. No context to the ‘greatest generation’ and how hard they had to work, the huge taxes they paid to lift the nation out of the Great Depression and build much of the glorious infrastructure across North America

In the background it seems to me like the major commodity produces and even manufacturers of the world are gearing up to move off using the US dollar as a reserve.

The inflation will be rampant when the world stops funding the USA trade deficit.

I see the USA increasingly getting cut out of trade relationships as China, India, Brazil, Japan focus on sending finish goods / manufactured products to emerging markets in exchange for getting raw materials shipped back.

The more inflation comes to the USA the more undesirable it will be to hold USA bonds. Selling of USA bonds will push rates up and hurt the leveraged consumer and the economy.

This will create larger deficits and also hurt profits and lower tax revenue of all types. Deficits cycle up. Creating the need for more printing. Which will cause more foreign central banks to want to exit treasuries or at least not accumulate more.

This is why the Fed is in a box now. Rate increases will increase budget deficits as they will slow the economy and increase the interest burden.

Growing deficits as far as the eye can see will just keep increasing bond investor unease and cycle up inflation. The more the Fed is forced to monetize to try to keep rates down the more the USA will be exposed as having a ponzi economy.

The more inflation / holding rates higher will hurt profits and slow growth. All combined to make investors demand lower P/E ratios. Capital gains profit turn to capital losses and goverment revenues fall cycling things all to the worse. A negative fly wheel effect on the economy and the USA dollar.

Meanwhile, China and India will continue ramping up their domestic economy. Their trade with emerging markets will result in economic growth outside the USA and global competition for raw material will just keep increasing as everyone is looking to build out electrical grid for EV’a and AI.

The more USA gets cut out of the trade flow the worse it will get for the USA consumer and the economy

The saying used to be “when the USA catches a cold the rest of the world get sick”. Not so much anymore…

China and Japan used to really support the US trade deficit and help finance the USA consumer to keep their own manufacturing and exports strong. Recessions in the USA really hurt thier economies 20 years ago.

But now exports are not nearly as important to China.

In 2004 trade was ~60% of China’s gdp.

In 2024 it will be around 34-35%.

Over those 20 years USA has gone from 20% of chinas trade to 15%

That equates to ~12% of China’s economy then o ~3.4% of China’s economy now.

72% drop in the USA significance/influence on Chinas economy. When a huge drop in trade due to a USA recession might only have a 1% effect on Chinas gdp now and can easily be made up with China engaging in its own domestic spending stimulus.

The result is, China is no longer very reliant at all on usa’s economy. But the USA is perhaps even more so dependent on China now for many imports like rare earths and many finished goods/parts for manufacturing in the USA.

Bottom line here is what we are seeing right now in the global financial markets is looking like the start of a soon to be rapid exodus from USA focused trade and US dollar denominated transactions.

Consider that historically s&p 500 companies beat revenue and earnings expectations between 60-70%. This through the good times and the bad times and takes into account that forecasts are both moved up and down by analysts prior to companies reporting. What does this tell us? Does it tell us analysts suck at estimating?

If they were very good at estimating companies revenue and earnings the number would be much lower.

But only 3-5% of the time do analysts get the number right.

Turns out that companies miss estimates about 20-30% of the time

As #gold and #silver stocks make new highs following what looked like technical tops to traders we will begin to see the real fireworks. Shorts will be squeezed but also all those who’ve been trained during the bear market to take profits and wait to buy back lower will be left behind The transition from bear to bull always takes a bit of time and gold and silver investor/trader physiology is particularly fragile from the 14 year bear that started back in 2010.

Fear of buying rallies will be replaced fear of selling them too early. Momentum traders will be joining the part

Some people are scared not to take profits on this gold and silver rally due to the history of false breakouts. I’m the opposite, I remember well how then 2000-2010 started and progressed.

I’m scared to death to take profits and miss out on this precious metal bull market. So, I remain loaded to the gills with metals and physical. Precious metals bull markets are the trickiest to trade. So much manipulation and super high volatility. I’m the 1999-2000 start there was little interest to no interest in the sector. Just fringe nuts likes my #uranium friends. But, mostly just die hard sitting and waiting for a repeat of the 1970-1980 run.

I agree. It’s time for a massive squeeze and final acknowledgment that so many banks are short silver. It’s paid well for them to offer silver certs to customers and just hedge with silver futures at times. They all promise 5 day delivery but they don’t actually have the silver. Paper silver market dwarfs physical. We called in some silver certs on the banks back during the early 2000’s bull. It took 6 months to get the 5 day silver contracts all delivered. As long as it comes in time you can’t even really sue. Cause there’s no damage

When I see the chart below I’ve often considered the longterm reality of the USA being able to print the worlds reserve currency and go shopping around the world, buying stuff from people stupid enough to accumulate the fiat currency. (Exchanging real goods for paper/digital currency) Just eyeballing the chart it and doing basic math… we have about 35 years x 12 months on average of ~$40 bln of deficit. Thats a total north of ~$15 trillion (rounding down)

Now try to picture what ~$15 trillion worth of goods looks like as they been loaded on to ships over that time

FYI. This is the part of the story where the #uranium etfs that have no buy back mechanism shock the hell out of unsuspecting shareholders. Who’s gonna close the gap to nav? Will the gap get so large that shareholders revolt and demand buy backs that necessitate physical uranium sales? Or will the billions of dollars of value collectively owned in these vehicles be content to sit and wait for higher prices and a return to nav in time?

If you’re trying to improve your body’s physical and mental health you should start with understanding #mitochondria function and mitochondria #biogenesis

@ChrisPalmerMD book brain energy provides a great overview. Mitochondria is at the core of cell energy and cell maintenance. Every single of the 30+ trillion cells and our body rely on the 10 quadrillion mitochondria they collectively contain.

Our bodies cells communicate and work together using at least 4 distinct ways of signalling.

#Gold making all time highs in most currencies and the pos usd will be next. Meanwhile many precious metals stocks are near bottoms. Especially juniors. We are at the cusp of a 5-10 year mega move that will see #preciousmetals metals create generational wealth for early entrants

https://twitter.com/realmikelarson/status/1725166763443200141

The USA already is dealing with ridiculously irresponsible deficits. Their political system is broken. One side wants endless spending on entitlements and the other continues to choose tax cuts for the wealthy rather than fiscal responsibility. The resulting historical debt levels have it now trapped in a box. This looming recession will have deficits blowing out to $4t plus a year again. Meanwhile we’ll over 10 trillion in existing debt will need to roll over in the next year and a bit at higher interest rates.

I find this contract book laughable. Utwitter loves to cheer these $ccj $cco guys on and talk about how bullshit they are. But over the last 3 years they’ve contract like mad and created this dogshit no upside contract book. I can’t understand why this would occur… I’m no accountant but are they saying here that $53mln of the quarterly adjusted profit of $137mln came from market to market currency gain basically on the capital to pay for Westinghouse (in usd so it’s not like there’s an actual gain cause they committed to pay in usd)

Well… looks like a some of the +$4 bln owners of $sput $u.u are trying to take profits here around the historically significant $75/lb level. With out a full buy back program in place it’s very difficult for big players to get liquidity. Again, I think this is an excellent profit taking region in price and time for this leg of the #uranium bull market.

I’ve been scanning twitter a fair bit the last week or so but commenting little. It’s basically looked like a #Uranium bukkake…

Gentle reminder. Investing, saving and compounding so you can have a comfortable retirement is important.

But the absolutely most important thing is to invest in your body so that you can have an active enjoyable retirement. I’m trying to train every day to be more fit so I can hike to beautiful places and enjoy energizing activities with friends.

This often means choosing short term discomforts and pushing through pain to get results. This sort of investment generates huge long term gains.

This is not what is gonna happen. I know well that there are piles of huge mutual funds and even gigantic pension funds that can’t own physical uranium. The prospectus of many funds like these prevent them from owning future contracts and other exotic ways of getting exposure to #uranium

https://twitter.com/kafka_econ/status/1699554130501500983

But they can buy $sput only they haven’t been willing to commit $100 or $200 million or more to physical uranium because of a fear of getting caught and having to sell the shares at a potientially huge discount to market.

But now they will be buyers.

The events in Niger will pass and I expect in time stability will return and conventional mining investment will be desired and restored. That said… it’s significant for the #uranium world and another example of why diversification is so important as well as maintaining… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… I’ve been burned so many times from political upheaval on single investments but when major producing countries go through strife the returns on a diversified portfolio and the commodity itself make up for the losses.