Uni Liverpool: prof of vet epidemiology; vectorborne diseases, climate change & health. Lead of One Health HORN project. Stupid tweets mine. he/him
Mar 15, 2020 • 18 tweets • 3 min read
Here's my thoughts on the UK government's position. For clarity, I make the assumptions that covid19 has R0 = 2.5, 20% of cases need hospitalisation and 1% die
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If no-one was doing anything differently, the R0 of 2.5 implies that the number of cases will increase until 60% have had the disease and are immune. At this point, there is herd immunity [this is (R0-1/R0) - 1.5/2.5 = 0.6]
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