Nowdays, everyone is saying that China's economy is not good, but if we carefully study "the evidence" they list about the "bad economy", we will find that they are largely lacking factual support, or at least controversial. I will analyze them one by one here.

1. The unemployment rate is 20%+ among young people aged 16 to 24.

This number is quite misleading. A 18 year old preparing for their second college entrance exam, or 22 year old college graduates preparing for graduate entrance exams, TOEFL/IELTS/GRE exams, or civil service exams will all be classified as 'unemployed'.

Obviously, a more reasonable indicator is the overall unemployment rate, which is 5.3% now, quite low and stable. 2. China's exports have declined.

This is true in recent months, but not because of China, but because of the world.

Many countries in Europe, such as Germany or the Netherlands, have already fallen into recession, and imports from the United States are also declining, leading to a decrease in demand and inevitably leading to a decline in exports from industrialized countries. China, South Korea, Japan, VN, India... no one is good on this.

In fact, among the general decline in exports, China remains the relatively best performing country.

1. From January to July, China's exports continued to rise by 1.5%;
2. exports from industries such as NEV, batteries, and PV surged. China will be the largest car export country in 2023.
3. After the decouple with the West, the Russian market flooded with Chinese goods now.

Let's recall what happened in chip war.

1. ZTE

The United States began to make trouble with ZTE in 2018, using the excuse of doing business with Iran. At that time, Chinese chips were not yet able to resist, and ZTE ultimately agreed to American conditions, accepting the fine and even this guy to work as a supervisor at ZTE. What a shame!

China started its own chip development since now. 2. Huawei

Americans began to make trouble with Huawei since 2019, arrested Meng Wanzhou, banned the supply of chips to Huawei, and cut the business tie between Huawei and many American companies, such as Android supplier, Google.

Huawei lost its phone business, which was the world's No.1 at that time, but managed to maintain 5G communication network business. In addition, it continued to expand into other fields such as NEV, computers...

Huawei developed many alternatives to American products, such as ERP, EDA and OS Harmony. In 2023, Huawei's profits doubled year-on-year, and there are reports that Huawei's 5G phone is about to return.

There are still 5 Socialist states in the world: China, Vietnam, Cuba, North Korea and Laos.

People's stereotype is that socialist countries are poor, but the truth is different, if we compared every socialist countries to their similar countries. let me show you 1 by 1. 1. Among the Caribbean island countries, Cuba is the most developed country, despite decades of sanctions and blockades imposed by the United States.

Which country do you want to live in, Cuba or Haiti?

The United States nominally has 11 aircraft carriers, let's take a closer look at the situation of these 11 carriers, from new to old:

1. Ford (CVN-78): In service in 2017, still issues with the catapults, which prevented Ford from entering combat readiness duty from training. 2. USS Bush (CVN-77): In service in 2009, with a service time of 14 years and normal rotation, it is the main aircraft carrier of the United States.

Let's discuss the big pic of US China competition. There are two possibilities for the current US strategy:

1. Expand NATO to Asia and absorb countries such as Japan and SK to join NATO;
2. Establish a new military alliance in Asia with countries like Japan, SK, and Australia. Both strategies are challenging:

The difficulty of first is mainly due to Europe's disagreement. They may be willing to argue with China economically or diplomatically, but not militarily, they think that's not their business.

Watching the videos of American public Tiktok hearings, I didn't see the democracy, freedom, fairness, and law, but only paranoia, ignorance, arrogance, and hysteria. Crenshaw: [Chinese citizens] must cooperate with Chinese intelligence whenever they are called upon, and if they are called upon they're bound to secrecy. That would include you.

TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew: I'm Singaporean.

10 guesses about China's industry in the Year of the Rabbit:

1. China's 28nm chip production line has achieved de-americanized. The domestic DUV lithography machine is ready. China can produce chips that used in cars, appliances and many industrial machineries. 2. H-20 bomber completed its first flight.

Joseph Nye, a Harvard University professor, wrote an article on Sino-US relations, listing the "five big advantages" of the US. Here I like to response these five advantages from the perspective of China. 1. geographical advantage.

The US is protected by the Atlantic and the Pacific Ocean. Canada and Mexico are weak.

on the other hand, China borders 14 countries and have border disbute with some countries.

Toyota CEO Akio Toyoda discusses new energy vehicles:

1. The Japanese market is shrinking（car sale in Japan was 7 million and 4.2 million in 2022. Toyota would take Thailand as the core of Aisa market, and North and South America as focus. 2. Akio Toyoda did not mention the Chinese market. The author of this article speculates that it is because the Chinese economy is going to collapse;

Lol.

I don't buy this at all.

1. China would have 1,000+ nukes before liberating Taiwan, the US will be deterred like it was in Ukraine.

2. if the US is not deterred, China certainly will overwhelm Taiwan, Japan and the US on traditional weapons. Such military games have no military value, only propaganda value, to deter the Chinese leaders from launching the war.

If the US is determined to wage war with China, they would do it in 2020 with the Xinjiang or Wuhan lab story.

Zhao Lijian is no longer the spokesman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, but transferred to other position. a little disappointed. Zhao Lijian was the representative of Wolf Warrior diplomacy. He was transferred but not promoted.

Indian scholar SL Kabthan published an article to compare China and India in past 40 years, summarize nine differences between the two countries, and explain the reasons for China's rise. Here are the main points. /1 1. foreign investment.

China attracted more foreign direct investment than India. In the 1990s, India had 16 billion dollars investment while China had 300 billion. In the 2000s, India had 160 billion and China had 950 billion. This trend goes on till today.

I have to say that I admire the brainwashing ability of Americans very much. They can modify the people's cognition and memory not only on history but also on today's reality, more important, they can do it smoothly, no one feels embarrassed! Impressive！ /1 The flu in 1919 originated in the United States and it is the American flu, but people today only remember that it is the "Spanish flu". /2

Here are reasons why China sticks to "Dynamic Zero Covid" policy:

1. according to data in Taiwan, HK, and Shanghai, a million Chinese will die of Covid if give up, and Chinese gov also worries the death of so many people will bring social unrest; /1 2. Hundreds of millions of people need to go to hospital, it is impossible to provide sufficient medical equipment and drugs, and the cost will be unbelievably high.

3. not sure about Long Covid. /2

People say the US wants Taiwan to be the next Ukraine. I disagree. An asian Ukraine needs to have two key conditions:

1. the war will last, China can't fully occupy, and it can only be delpeted in long term;

2. the US can easily resupply weapons but won't fight by itself. /1 Taiwan matches none of these two conditions.

1. Taiwan is small, 1/16 of Ukriane, PLA owns overwhelming manpower/gunpower, the landing war will be hard, but not lasting.

2. Taiwan is an island. The US weapon supply has no way to ship in during the war time. /2

Nothing goes right under this new South Korea president, either relations with the neighbors or internal affairs.

Relation with China doesn't go well, since he is quite determined to promote the construction of THADD. /1 Relation with North Korea obviously is getting dangerous under him.

He clearly shows an aggressive posture against North Korea with the US. North Korea didn't test many missiles under his predecessor, but did a lot under him. and might again test nukes. /2

I think China may announce some new nuclear policies in the near future, here are why:

1. there is a line in Xi's report:"build a strong strategic deterrent capability", that's so different from China's past minimum nuclear deterrence strategy. 2. China FM spokeperson yesterday said that US NPR 2022 is a "nuclear blackmail" against China and China won't be scared.

Americans of course terrorize China everyday but is 2022 NPR more specific than 2021? or China just justified its nuclear policy change by saying that?

Overall, the Chinese chip industry is not too pessimistic about the overwhelming sanctions imposed by the US this time.

The mainstream view is that this sanction will only slow down but not stop the development of the Chinese chip industry. some views believe that, with the development of 5G, AI, and automatic drive, China will account for about 2/3 of the global chip market by 2030.

there is a demand, and there is a supply.

for those Chinese who think Chinese should sympathize with Japanese and mourn Abe's assassination. Let me give you a general idea of what Abe did.

1. Abe is currently the second most aggressive Japanese politician to "defend Taiwan" after his younger brother Nobuo Kishi. 2. Abe has visited the Yasukuni Shrine numerous times, both in office and after leaving office.

3. The QUAD was conceived by Abe.

4. Abe said it himself. He tried unsuccessfully to drive a wedge between China and Russia during his presidency.