Miami Herbert Centennial Endowed Chair, Professor of Economics @UnivMiami @MiamiHerbert
Oct 14, 2021 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
There are always "temporary" factors.
1973: OPEC embargo hit in October. By December CPI was up 8.9% y-o-y & FOMC that month voted to *ease* to offset oil shock.
In 12 months following, inflation would hit 12.1%, while real GDP would fall 1.9%. federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy…
Shout-out to Alfred Hayes of the @NewYorkFed (newyorkfed.org/aboutthefed/AH…) who was the lone dissent in FOMC vote December 1973
Oct 13, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Me today @NRO, "The unprecedented surge in unemployment benefits and other government-transfer programs during COVID-19 is showing increasing signs of long-term economic impacts." nationalreview.com/2021/10/when-u…
The changes in the labor market over the course of the pandemic raise the specter of “hysteresis,” where short-term economic shocks have long-term impacts, even after the shock subsides. This concept became widespread during the European unemployment dilemma of the 1980s.
