On the Astros...

Again, the date I keep going back to is June 6. From that date forward, including 2023 regular season, postseason, and start of 2024, they're 72-76 (.486). That's a sub-79 win pace from a sample of 148 games! Almost a full season.

So, it's not as if things suddenly flipped when the calendar hit 2024. Sure, they've been worse than they should be this year (for a few reasons, luck included), but the truth is more unsettling: They've been a fairly mediocre team with similar problems for a while.

The spectacular collapse of the Rangers/Mariners in the final week of the 2023 RS, coupled with Jose Abreu's dead-cat bounce in the ALDS versus a mediocre Minnesota team (fantastic draw), temporarily masked a lot of this stuff for two weeks. It was always there.

(For those curious, June 6 was the Toronto series when Yordan strained his oblique, which became a six-week absence. Then Valdez and Javier fell off over the second half of 2023, Garcia and Urquidy were lost, the offense became much more boom or bust, and here we are.) IMO, a lot of us brushed aside concerning things because *superficially*, the AL West title (90 wins, one year after 106) and easily dispatching Minnesota in the ALDS made it feel like things were normal, and that they could flip a switch when it mattered. Not exactly.

For some perspective...

The Astros started 36-24 last year. Starting June 6, over their next 96 games — a massive sample — they were 49-47.

They shouldn't be as comically bad as they are now, that's a mental funk, but I'm not betting on them to magically flip a switch, either. Combine everything from June 6 onward — end of regular season, postseason, and start of this season — they're 67-72. In 139 games!

I just have a hard time getting worked up over this. The signs have been there for a while. They're just not very good, period. It is what it is.