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Ben Davies Profile picture
Ben Davies
@BenjamDavies
Co-Founder Hugo @HugoSaveSG | Co-Founder Hinde Capital | Co-Founder Glint Pay | Co-Founder Variant Perception More often than not bemused & amused by us humans
May 9, 2023 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
Why 2023 US Debt Ceiling is an issue?

A Brief History of Time - US Debt Singularity:

- Debt Ceil. created by Congress 2017 Second Liberty Bond Act $11.5bn limit!
- Sets the maximum amt of outstanding federal debt the US Govt incurs
- follow thread👇 Image - Since WWII the ceiling has been raised or suspended 102 times
- Since 1960 78x, 49x under Republican, 29x Democratic Presidents
- Since 2013 7x, in 1979 there was a technical default, late payment of $122m maturing bills
May 5, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Short-Selling Bank Stocks - the true efficacy?

In 2008 U.S. regulators banned short-selling of financial stocks, fearing the practice was helping to drive the steep drop in stock prices during the crisis.

In 2012 NYFED published paper that debunked this ideanyfed.org/3pf00kU Image Short sales did not exacerbate sector or market downturns, summary:

1. The 2008 ban on short sales failed to slow the decline in the price of financial stocks.

2. In fact, prices fell markedly over the two weeks in which the ban was in effect and stabilized once it was lifted.
Oct 19, 2022 • 9 tweets • 1 min read
UK Govt and BoE now applying the handbrake and slamming on the foot brake - counter to my original tweet "Watching the dynamic between G7 govts and their Central Banks - it’s analogous to slamming on the brake while pumping the accelerator"…. UK debt to GDP is in an intractable situation now, tighter financial conditions will occur from both fiscal and monetary which means…
Oct 17, 2022 • 20 tweets • 3 min read
This UK gilts chart got me really thinking...Why is the term premia so tight here; bond buddy made one observation in a low coupon environment dollar prices are very low already... Tight term premia aside, the gilt debacle was a liquidity crisis - QT was imminent, and the BoE had systematically failed to get inflation expectations under control. They have been behind the inflation curve all the way; it's actually unfathomable...
Oct 16, 2022 • 17 tweets • 3 min read
Central bank and govt largesse we now all understand by now distorted the credit spectrum so firms took on greater risks, none more so than the UK Pension industry… Pension funds have to match assets to liabilities in such a manner as to meet their future liabilities to pay an individual’s pension “annuity” in retirement, this is particularly problematic for final salary pension schemes but most firms don’t adopt these now…
Oct 16, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Snapshot of credit guarantees of private credit in 2020… And then Jan 22 - this does not include the plethora of additional state (govt)-backed credit guarantees of hydrocarbon energy (gas, LNG, oil) | green energy | defence (weapon) production all to support Ukraine and bolster the West’s defence systems…
Oct 15, 2022 • 15 tweets • 2 min read
Watching the dynamic between G7 govts and their Central Banks - it’s analogous to slamming on the brake while pumping the accelerator…. Govts will win this friction, as they provide what electorates want, which is protecting them from energy, climate and providing security from geopolitical risks…