Strange how the pragmatic factual No Fed stance - which I think is impossible to refute with data - stirs some up. It seems to be a sorta inverse function - the more angry the more, deep down, they k now they are full of shit going on and on about the Fed this or that. I say the window is closing now, either you start to savage the Fed and save your career or you will go down with the Fed. Didn't last weeks Fed cacophony scare the heck out of you being a fellow traveler of the Fed?

suspect the 2:00 PM move was the Fed leaked NFP so as to buttress the idea might not cut Fed Funds until late this year - "Bostic Plan".
this goes on and on yet there is no signs that Fed Funds impacts NGDP nor employment for a decade now.
Period of ZLB depressive note the year over year at SA at 2,927 new jobs or a 1.9% increase. that is 2% add to real NGDP, productivity is also up so that makes real about 3% rolling year over year. extremely strong economy in context of last decade plus.

Wholesalers inventories and sales should be given more attention. The usual way is to see inventory levels is to glance at the levels for inventory size and then to the wholesalers sales.
Note how noisy the NSA sales number is compared to the inventory levels.

This is because wholesalers data is forward looking, anticipating sales for the upcoming year. This level decision is heavily influenced by the popular meme which in turn is defined by the Federal Reserve forward guidance.

What is the curve, the schedule of rate given maturity, for risk free in the US.
How is the US Treasury curve the same or approximate to the risk free curve - when it is so and when not.
How is the US Treasury 10 year rate determined?
This is the main problem now. Every media and analysis I here do not understand this but for two - @crossbordercap or The Monetary Frontier. Everyone else is in error be it Bloomberg economics to NYT to WSJ to NY Fed to....and so on.

Going forward all pundits etc to make the turn and survive (@LynAldenContact @dampedspring @BobEUnlimited @JeffSnider_EDU @crossbordercap @JackFarley96 @stevehouf @AnnaEconomist @FedGuy12 ..and others) must make the following changes: 1) bring all analysis start and end to spot duration, leave the Fed forward space to the Fed;
2) define a risk free curve for the US - which is not currently the US Treasury curve;
3) in process of #2 define a US 10 year risk free rate which is now not the US Teas 10 year;

To be able to have reasonable forward view now, must understand how the economy is evolving since the massive fiscal stimulus starting with covid made Personal Consumption the main factor, must consider Personal Consumption Expenditure first. Note the year over year % change is in excess of per covid, and the annual change in level is around 1 trillion a year.

Should be kept in mind that SP500 is only a few ricks above the 2021 high, yet NGDP has expanded an additional 3 trillion since that point. Throughout 2022 and parts of 2023 the markets latched onto a monetary cycle meme that expected the opposite. Therefore SP500 should further break free of this error of Fed monetary cycling and reflect not only that 3 trillion NGDP growth from Jan 2022, but also anticipate likely more NGDP growth. 6000? 7000?

as I babble about QRA - what experience or knowledge do I have to allow me to say such outrageous things? In later half of 1980s I was in a meeting with E Craig (Sali) and my boss at the time John to discuss the upcoming QR.
It went like this. "John we will fund all the US Treasurys you wish to buy along with us in the auctions" turning to me, he asked "Is this so?" "Yes it is so"
John went silent and E Craig was starting to give Bob, the salesguy, dirty looks.
He went silent for a long time.

The importance of monetary games. As Fed is clearly not data dependent now in terms of here and now, but only forward space, then "games" are developed to replace the here and now bustle and fill the void of no longer present reaction function. These games come in series and usually based on some meme or the meme with highest holding in the popular view. The are even attempts to author the pop meme for trading gain.

well guess this is where it has to go. using mortgage 30 year concventional to peg down a US Treas 10y year, and then a NGDP last 6 months to define a neutral Fed Funds rate - heck use 5.4% - gonna figure out how to do an affine curve model. then figure the risk premium. do same procedure back for 30 years, see what I come up with.
if seems robust, that is the term premium. curious what it says about forward views on econ. also see where equity

In markets, the most dangerous are those fools who are far smarter than I and are expert traders. Just they feel they have to have a brilliant macro or monetary explanations as they can not abide being but brilliant traders. Dangerous if you do not do exactly their trades... ....all you get is their loony macro theories. Then they can say - I made alot of money with those theories so beats me you lost money. "The easy money has been made" at exactly time and level of max (so far) US Treas 10 years market rate.

As far as I can figure out, to see reason in what is obviously a self damaging national policy, the current immigration policy (or lack of policy) is a brazen attempt to revive 3/5th a man clause in the US Constitution. It is to swell or protect number of House seats in Dem area Otherwise the policy is senseless. So if a Dem, you welcome (at first) these never to be citizens and voters to areas Iike NE urban areas, or mid-west like Chicago, or LA and NW. Sanctuary and all that.

Bonds - risk free bonds - are only of extra value if they have expectations of neg correlation to equity which in turn is because bonds are insurance for an adverse business cycle, otherwise they price to inflation expectations. But if there is no business cycle like now, then bonds will not be rich versus the pricing to inflation.

The deficit understates the size of the fiscal stimulus as it doesn't depict the redistribution of the federal spend. Payouts were mostly in the form of direct 'helicopter' money while taxation was from same sources as before covid This means the deficit being net understates the power/amount of the stimulus in terms of consumption, wages, and savings. Net, the fiscal impulse was as much as 3.5 trillion

for now over a 8 quarters I have been ridiculed, ignored, or blocked. Yet for 8 quarters I have been right, not because of brilliance but because I use current data and ignore the Fed forward guidance and forward monitoring.
i think almost all cannot afford to do what I do. they cannot afford doing so as it means realizing what a con this current Fed is now. It means spending some time and learning Neo Wicksell policy. They must read Woodford Jackson Hole 2012. They must give up their punditry as is all Fed Reserve centric.

It seems everyone is using ideas of Federal Reserve flippantly and in error.
And equally so, ignoring the fiscal (federal government) input to the US economy.
It is time to consider what exactly is the Federal Reserve doing to the economy, and what is the federal government doing It is readily done to break these flows down with great accuracy using Fed Reserve H8 tables provided weekly, and monthly BEA data. Data is disaggrated to daily and then using M2 and M2 with velocity, brought to current values.

The housing market has been the first mover to show the Fed policy changes. If the fiscal is usual march under the evolving of Congess "purse strings" role, then monetary policy will dominate. So, the new home sector will be the first to show monetary tightening. And the set back in new homes has been expected since Powell announced the Fed tightening Jan 2022

the size of the fiscal response to the Covid emergency cannot be overlooked. it was off a size that is similar to WWII fiscal shaping of the US economy. the Fed was not even mentioned for close to 20 years after WWII and then as an irritant in the Keynesian promises. the Treas Fed Accord of 1951 was required to just let the Fed breath . it was a fiscal dominant world until Volcker 1979. this was the rattles of the 20% plus of NGDP spend and then more starting in WWII. why do folks seek to ignore this reality given the covid response…

Was asked why JPM earnings was a marker? The ern were as they have always been since 10/22, so now 6th earnings that are surprises to the upside. Ever since Dimon warned in Jan 22, no doubt getting a talking point page from Michele Smith, every analysts ....carries on being in synced with the Fed authored meme tabled QI 2022 that a large raise in Fed Funds would result in a recession, raise unemployment. Was the price to pay to contain inflation. This was the source of Dimon's stern words on Jan 22 and was repeated by many CEO

There can be little debate that Fed Funds have not been tight and at most are now approaching neutral - reality have been at ease for almost a decade. so if Fed Funds are not an issue, the inputs which form NGDP (and thereby employment) are US federal government net spend, and the Federal Reserve limiting or tightening credit correction. The "fiscal impulse" and the "monetary impulse".

Come across in many places the notion of market based ease, the opposite of market tightening. Usually both are offered up as to the efficacy of the Fed as otherwise there is no signs of the Fed. Reality is that this market based idea of ease or tighten proves there is no Fed. Prior to the current market based tightening, the was the market based tightening - "near steepener", USTreasury 10 year rise to drop the mortgage market, all based upon - supposedly- on Fed actions or Delphic promises of the Fed action.