πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ Bill Comeau Crush the Curve πŸ“‰ Profile picture
#Covid19 #Tableau at https://t.co/M4k060GgAQ. More πŸ“ˆ at https://t.co/Mm08LosHVU UofW M.Math (Stats) retired. Set compass to #COVIDZero 🧭
CMarie...#CovidIsAirborne #BetterMasks! Profile picture 2 added to My Authors
9 Mar
πŸ§΅πŸ¦ πŸ“ˆ Ontario March 9 Update
1,185 new cases (33K tests*, 2.6% wkly pos)
*Tuesdays are low
Rt = 1.08
hospitalizations 689 ICU 290
50 80+ weekly deaths
32% variants
912KπŸ’‰
#Covid19 #Covid19Ontario #onhealth #onpoli
πŸ’‘find more in viz at bit.ly/Billius27
New case trend is bending up
Weekly test positivity beginning to rise (3.7% today). Tuesday is normally the lowest reported test volume of the week.
Read 12 tweets
9 Mar
🧡 Ontario is sabotaging its own revised science and risk-based πŸ’‰ plans days after it was announced. This will kill more vulnerable. Let's take a look. Dr. Warner points out that anyone can jump ahead saying they have an eligible health condition in April. #onpoli #vaccines
We know from their track record that when the @ongov refuses to impose rules and leaves it open to people to choose, many will break the rules. So this is an open invitation for mass queue jumping. Especially for a vaccine, not a fluffy decorator pillow.
This was the strategy announced. It looks good when it recognizes that 96% of the deaths are 60+. Health conditions look fine too *until* you sabotage it with a "Homesense" version. Every healthy person can step in line and divert vaccines from the truly vulnerable and seniors.
Read 8 tweets
9 Mar
I'm finding myself at odds with people who want to just measure vaccine performance by the raw statistics (and I produce such charts lol). I want to see the v80+ vaccinated first and fast. Govts can easily ignore that challenge and just open the gates to the lower priority.
This pressure for popular results is what led to the Premier's meddling in testing strategy back in April and to the delay in vaccinating LTC residents. Convenient and fast will cost lives but make voters happy.
So when you say you want the freezer cleared, be careful what you wish for. Just because the govt doesn't give you the numbers on vaccinations by age doesn't mean you should lose sight of the priority. Demand that 80+ be completed, then demand 70+, demand the other vulnerable.
Read 5 tweets
8 Mar
Mystified as to how some regional vaccination plans think that 80 or 95 year olds can just run out to mass vaccination sites like 40 year olds. There is still a lot wrong in the way we are treating our most vulnerable and that's because no one in that age group had input.
Ageism starts by not having a clue because you're not that age and you assume they are like you. Ageism continues when you never add an elderly rep to a vaccine task force.
I suggest that many of these poor people have bladder, spine, leg/hip, and diabetic issues. Waiting in line outside is going to keep some of them from going, especially if they are alone and depressed, without a care giver. We can do better.
Read 6 tweets
8 Mar
πŸ§΅πŸ¦ πŸ“ˆ Ontario Regional Update March 8
1,631 Ontario new cases. Possibly includes a correction. Will add to replies if there is one.
Toronto reports 568. Peel 322 new cases.
#Covid19 #Covid19Ontario #onhealth #onpoli
πŸ’‘find more in viz at bit.ly/Billius27 Image
These two statistics: weekly cases per 100K and 7 day test positivity are both very important in assessing where a region is. Image
These two help you understand which regions are growing and how much significance they have in driving the Ontario numbers. Ideally, you want to see the biggest 7 day average bars at the bottom right. Image
Read 4 tweets
8 Mar
πŸ§΅πŸ¦ πŸ“ˆ Ontario Morning Update
1,631 new cases ⬅️may include data correction
(38K⬇️ tests, 2.6% wkly pos⬆️)
Rt = 1.01
91 weekly deaths, 80+ = 47
31.2 % variants
890KπŸ’‰
#Covid19 #Covid19Ontario #onhealth #onpoli
πŸ’‘find more in viz at bit.ly/Billius27 Image
Let's wait to see if there was a data correction. 1,631 is suspiciously high given trend. Image
Lower testing and higher positivity today. The weekly positivity trend is an important indicator. Image
Read 7 tweets
8 Mar
Prelim: Ontario expected to report 1,631 new cases this morning. Trends coming after 10am.
Let's wait and see if there was a data correction, 10:30 Ontario report will let us know. But this is a very high number based on recent trends.
Read 5 tweets
8 Mar
80+ Ontario Vaccine Rollout Status March 8 9am
*** check PHU websites for more details
*** add updates or corrections to replies
Thanks to volunteers who update this daily!
#VaccinesSaveLives Image
Note: I have added the 14 day new cases per 100K to the table. This gives an idea of which regions will be seeing the most 80+ deaths per capita in coming weeks. Part of getting vaccines to regions is understanding where the greatest immediate need is.
Latest for Toronto hospital-led clinics. toronto.citynews.ca/2021/03/08/tor…
Read 5 tweets
8 Mar
Canada Vaccine Status evening of March 7. Nearly 2.4 million doses have been administered. Image
There is a widening and significant vaccine gap. Image
Reported deliveries remain sporadic by day. Image
Read 4 tweets
8 Mar
πŸ§΅πŸ¦ πŸ“ˆ Canada March 7 Update
* based on PHU reports this evening *
Canada's weekly case rate stands at 55.2, almost unchanged over the last 18 days.
#Covid19 #cdnpoli
πŸ’‘explore in the viz at bit.ly/Billius27 Image
Top regions. Image
Provincial weekly case rate ranking. Manitoba is breaking from the "Covid-6" Image
Read 5 tweets
7 Mar
πŸ§΅πŸ¦ πŸ“ˆ Ontario March 7 Update
1,299 new cases (46.6K tests, 2.5% wkly pos)
29.5 % VOC share
Rt = 1.0
49 80+ weekly deaths
860KπŸ’‰ ⬆️40K
*** hospitalizations are underreported
#Covid19 #Covid19Ontario #onhealth #onpoli
πŸ’‘find more in viz at bit.ly/Billius27 Image
New case trend now rising. Image
Test positivity rising. Image
Read 8 tweets
7 Mar
80+ Ontario Vaccine Rollout Status March 7 9am
*** check PHU websites for more details
*** add updates or corrections to replies
Thanks to volunteers who update this daily!
#vaccines Image
This article gives an idea of Toronto hospital-led pilots.
cp24.com/news/toronto-r…
Vaccines are coming for the most vulnerable. Hang in there. Be sure to listen to public health advice on taking precautions AFTER your shot. Be careful of phone scams. #vaccinatethevulnerablefirst
insidehalton.com/news-story/103…
Read 5 tweets
7 Mar
Canada's vaccination status 8pm March 6. Shots dropped back down today to 74,446. Almost 3 million doses have been supplied. More ‡️
#vaccines Image
The vaccine gap is growing and is now 591,648. Image
Daily reported πŸ’‰deliveries. Image
Read 4 tweets
28 Feb
🧡 I need to touch on the disconnect between the Ontario vaccine priorities, the opening framework and variant risk. The current combination amounts to preventable #SENICIDE. Let me explain.
We know who will die in a next wave: 6,666 60+ have died, 96% of all deaths. #onpoli
We know that the province is reopening, a plan that is turning Rt and case growth back up.
We know now how the Fall growth in cases affected deaths. 4,055 have died. 4,055. Let that sink in.
Read 16 tweets
28 Feb
πŸ§΅πŸ¦ πŸ“ˆ Ontario Morning Update
1,062 new cases
Rt = yesterday's shown (1.03)
2.5% wkly positivity (49K tests)
20 deaths
18.9% screened were variants
24K new πŸ’‰
#Covid19 #Covid19Ontario #onhealth #onpoli
πŸ’‘find more in viz at bit.ly/Billius27
New case trend remains up.
Variant continues to gain a greater share of infections, now 18.9% for the 7 days ending Feb 25.
Read 7 tweets
28 Feb
Canada tonight based on today's PHU reports.
Plenty of available doses, 61,729 jabs given today.
#Covid19 #Vaccines More ‡️
viz at bit.ly/Billius27
Canada's weekly case rate up 4.8% on the week.
Eastern Newfoundland falls to red.
Read 7 tweets
27 Feb
As of Feb 19, 1,402,139 #covid19 doses were administered in Canada and 167 had serious adverse events reported afterwards (about 1 in ten thousand). 10 were deaths - 7 were found to not be due to the vaccination. The other 3 are under investigation (2 per million).
#vaccinesafety
Link to GoC Covid-19 Vaccine Safety site
h/t @Dr_Dissonance
health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/vacci…
Here's how often different reported adverse events occurred.
Read 6 tweets
27 Feb
πŸ§΅πŸ¦ πŸ“ˆ Ontario Feb 27 Update
I am seeing a resurgence, linked to the reopening of regions into the Ontario tier framework and despite Toronto and Peel remaining in Stay at Home.
Let me touch on some of the latest stats and trends.
#Covid19 #Covid19Ontario #onhealth #onpoli
Ontario's new cases are trending upward since sub-1000 case reports 10 days ago. The smoothed trend has picked up on that and now expects them to rise above 1,200 per day.
The recent rise in the 7 day test trend would normally mean lowering test positivity. It has remained flat.
Read 20 tweets
27 Feb
Ontario reports 1,185 new cases, led by Toronto's 331.
Thunder Bay's weekly cases have grown 89% over last week to 181. Brant is up 88%, Toronto 18%. More ‡️
#Covid19Ontario
public.tableau.com/profile/bill.c…
Where Ontario's case growth is coming from.
School risk. #onted
Read 4 tweets
26 Feb
🧡There's an important new brief out from the #Ontario Science Table on an enhancement to #vaccine prioritization and I want to touch on it now. I was made aware of this work some time ago and I am 100% supportive. It WILL save more lives! #vaccinestrategy
covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/c…
2/ You may recall that I took a controversial position early on how vaccines should be distributed across Canada, advocating that they be dist'd based on local mortality risks rather than provincial populations. This is that idea applied within Ontario.
3/ The brief explains (and we all know from my charts) that much of the burden has been in certain areas such as Peel and NW Toronto. By prioritizing based on both age and neighbourhood (first 3 chars of postal code), more lives can be saved faster. Image
Read 7 tweets
26 Feb
πŸ§΅πŸ¦ πŸ“ˆ Ontario Morning Update
1,258 new cases (64K tests)
Rt = .98
2.5% wkly positivity
hospitalizations 683 ICU 284
28 deaths
variant 17.4% (2/23)
πŸ’‰ +19K
#Covid19 #Covid19Ontario #onhealth #onpoli
πŸ’‘find more in viz at bit.ly/Billius Image
The tenuous uptick in new cases is strengthening. Image
64K tests and the test positivity remains flat at 2.5%. Image
Read 9 tweets