Bill Comeau 🇨🇦🇺🇦 Profile picture
Hemingway: "Gradually, then suddenly" #Covid19 chartmaker. UofW M.Math (Statistician) ret. #WearAMask 😷 #N95 #CovidisAirborne #VaccinesSaveLives
CMarie #CovidIsAirborne #SmallTownAB #WaterNotCoal Profile picture CL Prokopich Profile picture Melodie Osborne Scott 🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 Profile picture John Gunn Profile picture 5 added to My Authors
May 18 26 tweets 6 min read
🧵Inspired by @cdavidnaylor, a talk with my dog Casper on Ontario's sick school kids.
Casper: How come so many kids have gotten sick this year Bill?
Bill: It's a long story. It starts with the idea that kids have to be in school no matter what because education is important. Image Casper: What does school have to do with being sick?
Bill: This new Omicron virus can make you sick and spreads much more easily in indoor air when large groups are together a long time in one room. Like a school classroom.
May 18 11 tweets 6 min read
🧵Let's look at a few Ontario #covid19 trends.
#covid19ontario #onhealth
1. Hospitalizations are down -18.3% over last week (1248) as hospitals recover from wave 6. 7 day average ICU admissions are up slightly. Only 37.9% of hospitalizations are "for" covid (vs "with"). Image 2. The hospital picture is now strongly tilted to hospital wards vs ICU. This is tied primarily to high incidental infection rates among those admitted/hospitalized, vaccination levels (rates are high for 60+) and [presumably] improved treatment.
#onhealth #covid19 Image
May 18 6 tweets 2 min read
Reminder that mask requirements on air flights make everyone safer. Ventilation/filtration and masking are not meant to be either/or, no more than seat belts and brakes are meant to be. They are meant to complement each other to reduce risk. If you see someone cite "evidence" to the contrary, use critical thinking and note whether they were at a time when infection levels were lower and variant transmission risks were 6-7x lower than the current varieties. Then weight that against the "hardship" of wearing a mask.
May 18 5 tweets 2 min read
We don't need less masking, we need universal masking back, better masks, and wide distribution of free high quality masks with clear communications, especially for those at highest risk, the marginalized, and those with lower incomes. We don't need surrender, we need action. We don't need full capacities without safe ventilation or filtration, we don't need full capacities without indoor masking, we don't need to ignore the risks, we need to confront them with smart actions. The virus adapts, are we too stupid to adapt?
May 17 5 tweets 2 min read
New nasal vaccines look promising and may help fill the gap in infection control against Omicron.
#onhealth #covid19 Several trials underway. But as you know these take time and go through several phases before filing for approval.…
May 16 5 tweets 2 min read
There are *not* reasonable arguments on both sides of mask mandates during a highly infectious wave, there just aren't. One side supports science-driven public health and benign and simple precautions to reduce infections, the other side has convoys, disinformation, and trolls. To my knowledge, no regional MOH or the province's CMOH have put forward any rationale to support the removal of mask mandates. If there was a rationale, you would assume they would have shared it widely in messaging. They have mostly gone silent.
May 15 4 tweets 1 min read
The community transmission levels in US states bordering Ontario are high (chart by CDC). BA.2.12.1 is growing and is now estimated to exceed two thirds of NY cases. Normally this would cause heightened surveillance and preparations but Ontario is not testing the genl population. I used to produce a transmission risk map for Ontario but of course that would depend on valid Ontario testing and case data (which does not exist here).
May 1 6 tweets 2 min read
One of the freest countries in the world that recently had a free election does not need freedom lessons from a bunch of troublemakers intent on whining about losing an election or the use of scientifically-proven vaccines and masks to keep people safer in a pandemic. #Ottawa The predicted irony of this thread will be the quality of responses from those I am criticizing. /s
Apr 30 5 tweets 2 min read
🧵Ontario is seeing drops across #covid19 hospitalization and death indicators today.
1. Hospitalizations have stabilized and are down -8 from a week ago. They now stand at 1,676.
#onhealth #covid19ontario #covid19 2. ICU is down to 188, -24 from a week ago.
Apr 29 13 tweets 3 min read
1/There is a logical problem in immunity wall arguments that say the combination of massive prior infections and high vaccination levels will protect the province. If that were enough, then why are we still seeing an extraordinary level of ww-estimated infections every day? 2/The truth is, that argument depends on you and others getting infected and there are still millions of you. Not such a great idea. Your infections are placing tremendous strain on hospital staffing and beds and harming health care for many. At one end you have people
Apr 28 9 tweets 3 min read
One of the biggest lies of the pandemic was assuring Ontario that schools were safe, said by politicians at the peak of the January wave and supported by paediatricians and OCBM (Ontario's Big City Mayors). The rest is history. #onpoli #covid19 #onted… Evidence continues to emerge that school children (most unvaccinated) were harder hit than adults.…
Apr 27 7 tweets 5 min read
🧵I am seeing a significant slowing in the Ontario weekly growth rate of hospitalizations. This is consistent with the prior slowing of the wastewater signal and PCR-eligible test positivity and is a welcome development.
#onhealth #covid19ontario #covid19 This is the PCR test positivity trend I was referring to, it is only for those at higher risk so may not reflect the provincial trend.
Apr 27 8 tweets 4 min read
1/ If I have symptoms or test positive on a RAT test, I will isolate using a #covidisairborne plan and not exit until I test negative for two days. I'm aware how RATs work, how transmissible #Omicron is, and how long I may be infectious.
#onhealth #covid19… 2/ When infection levels are high, rapid tests are exceptionally accurate at detecting my infectiousness. They are also less accurate at confirming I am not infectious. That's why I will ensure I have two negative RAT tests 24 hours apart to exit isolation.
Apr 26 4 tweets 3 min read
Ontario #covid19 hospitalizations at 1,730 (+7.1% vs last week*). We're seeing a slowing growth rate. Clearer picture tomorrow. ICU up +6.3% vs LW.
*somewhat an estimate since I had to estimate last Tuesday's underreported hospitalizations.
#onhealth #covid19ontario Image New Adult ICU admissions.
#onhealth Image
Apr 25 4 tweets 1 min read
This is the genius who is taking over twitter so free speech from influential accounts like his can spread disinformation to millions, like he did at the start of a major pandemic that has killed a million Americans. Many trusted him, many became infected, some died. Unfortunately I had a small account and hardly anyone noticed the truth I was sharing. Not all geniuses know what they are talking about.
Apr 24 5 tweets 4 min read
Error: I mistakenly said this chart was by @PublicHealthON, my apologies. This chart is by the Govt of Ontario itself(Ministry of Health) and is on its main website under vaccinations. (I deleted the original thread mentioning PHO).
#onhealth Image @PublicHealthON continuing the thread again...

... are vaccinated. If we look at this Science Table chart, we get a clearer picture of how well vaccines are working. Evaluating vaccines needs proper data, not a heavily biased sample from high risk hospital workers and others. Image
Apr 23 4 tweets 2 min read
As far as I can tell, the ON govt's own experts are aligned with my view on long covid. It's the govt I disagree with; the casual acceptance of mass infections with little or no public health protections. I do not assign a weight of zero to non-hospitalized infections. #onpoli source: Public Health Ontario report, last updated April 20:…
Apr 23 12 tweets 3 min read
Even though it's from July 2021, I have yet to see a better thread describing how the precautionary benefits of masks got twisted in the West. Much like the debate on covid being airborne. Professor Greenhalgh's has had it right for a long time imo. #covid19 #MasksWork I should explain a little more. My school classmate went on to become the founder of EBM (Evidence Based Medicine). I don't believe he would see the equivalency of assessing messy and urgent real world population issues against the controls possible in medical RCT's.
Apr 22 4 tweets 2 min read
How can a govt spew out this big lie with a straight face "Ontario continues to EFFECTIVELY manage the sixth wave". This fig leaf of partial mask mandates is just that, another in a long stream of nothingburgers that leave Ontarians getting infected in massive numbers each day. We're talking benign masks here, not some draconian measure that can only be used in the most serious situations. The infection levels are serious almost everywhere. The way they ration these mandates out you would think people are being locked down with chains. It's a mask lol.
Apr 22 8 tweets 4 min read
🧵New US published study of nearly 10,000 #covid19 breakthrough infections after vaccination in 2021 shows no reduction in #longcovid feature risk. Also, in general, 60+ are less likely to see vaccine benefits on many outcomes of breakthrough infections.… Image A matched retrospective cohort has used to arrive at the hazard ratios shown here. Breakthrough infection outcome HR's to the left of the dashed line show risk reductions associated with prior vaccination. Reductions for ICU and death are significant, long term sequelae are not. Image
Apr 16 8 tweets 4 min read
1/🧵#Ontario wave 6 analysis
One caution I have raised about new waves is that early infections start in younger age cohorts then progress to older. Here is the age-test positivity for those eligible for restricted PCR testing. As you can see,
#covid19 #covid19ontario #onhealth 2/ wave 6 in Ontario is following that pattern, eventually those more risk averse, better protected by vaccines and with fewer social/work/school contacts on average suffer enough cumulative exposure risk that they too become infected.