Biotech investor for over two decades. Data driven ideas. I study and share my takes on biotech companies.
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Apr 21 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Over the weekend, I spent a ton of time picking through the $NBI and $ARKG looking for ideas. I shared my comments on many, but not all the companies I looked at. Here is a list of links to those threads.
$NBI part 1:
They have 35 holdings in the $ARKG and I am going to look at them all and give you my opinion.
$TWST is a DNA company that makes and sell DNA sequences to biotech companies. I don't see them becoming a very huge company. I think the potential is actually small. One of the reasons I sold them when I really got to know the company.
Apr 12 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
There was a lot of hype over the FDA announcement for replacing animal testing with AI modeling over time. A lot of the companies in the TechBio space rocketed higher yesterday. The market is not smart enough to know the winners and losers. It paints with a broad brush. My plan over the coming weeks it does dig into these TechBio companies. This has been a major theme of mine for years now. With all my study of the space, I will be able to help you sort the winners from the pack.
Here is the link to the FDA announcement where they are going to replace animal testing with alternatives over time. That is right. The huge pop in the TechBio names seems to be very premature. Nothing it going to change right away.
I know in a market that is super bubbly with the indexes trading at over 27x earnings many investors are wondering where to put their money. I know I have been looking and searching for value of any kind in this market.
1/ #Tech is a very big space, but there are some key themes here I am focused on as I think they are still innovative and disruptive. They are #Cloud, #Cybersecturity and #Automation.
Jun 19, 2024 • 21 tweets • 4 min read
🧵Innovation: (Part 2)
I know in a market that is super bubbly with the indexes trading at over 27x earnings many investors are wondering where to put their money. I know I have been looking and searching for value of any kind in this market.
1/ The next major theme is Financial Technology called #FinTech. This has been very disruptive to the old school financial industry which has been very complicated and unfriendly to consumers for many decades. I know last year I abandoned my obsolete old bank for fintech.
Jun 19, 2024 • 21 tweets • 4 min read
🧵Innovation: (Part 1)
I know in a market that is super bubbly with the indexes trading at over 27x earnings many investors are wondering where to put their money. I know I have been looking and searching for value of any kind in this market.
1/ I have been an innovation investor for many years. I put out a thread a few years ago about my thematic investing style. Some of my top themes at the time where #AI, #Automation, #Cybersecurity in Tech, #Fintech, #TechBio and #CRISPR in Biotech.
Apr 27, 2024 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
🧵Looking at $RXRX Platform:
Here I am going to look at the platform for @RecursionPharma and attempt to value this company as a sum of the parts.
1/ The Recursion platform comes in the technology pieces. They are the Data Collection, Mapping and Machine Learning. I will look at each of these parts.
Apr 18, 2024 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
The Biotech Report:
This covers all my companies since my last report in March. I will cover my 3 new companies here too.
$RXRX
This is going to be for companies not inside the $XBI. I will post companies here as I come across biotech names and check them out.
$ABSI is a company using synthetic biology to create antibodies and AI to model and design antibodies. They are working on generative AI platform to allow for antibody development. Its a massive bubble at 2x valuation. I love it at the right price.
Apr 13, 2024 • 34 tweets • 5 min read
🧵The Little Book of Biotech: Part 4
This is going to be part 4 as I ran into the thread limit for the number of companies each thread will show. Make sure to go back and check out Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3.
$FATE is a iPSC cell company working on CAR-NK and CAR-T therapies. I have owned them for many years, but opted to sell them recently as they have failed over and over again in the last several years. Time to move on.
Apr 11, 2024 • 32 tweets • 6 min read
🧵The Little Book of Biotech: Part 3
This is going to be part 3 as I ran into the thread limit for the number of companies each thread will show. Make sure to go back and check out Part 1 and Part 2.
$RXRX is actually my top pick right now. They are using robotics to do experiments and collect data to feed into their super computer and use AI to develop drugs. This is the future of drug discovery. It should, over time, reduce costs and improve rates of success.
Apr 9, 2024 • 25 tweets • 5 min read
🧵The Little Book of Biotech: Part 2
This is going to be part 2 as I ran into the thread limit for the first set of companies. Don't forget to look at my first 30 companies.
$FOLD is an old ERT company working in rare diseases which changed into gene therapies. I use to own them for a while so I know they have had some success and some failure along the way. Its a solid company, but I am moving beyond gene therapy to gene editing now.
Apr 7, 2024 • 32 tweets • 6 min read
🧵The Little Book of Biotech:
I plan to go through every company in the $XBI and do my DD. Then leave a post in this thread for my quick take on each company. Make sure you book mark this thread. I will start building it today and try to add every day at least 1 company.
$CYTK is a company working in muscle biology starting with heart indications. They have 3 late stage indications and a few early stage indications. They have about $700 million cash and burn about $450 million. Very impressive company on 1st look. Added to my list to advance.
Mar 28, 2024 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
My Top 10 Ideas
This is updated since earnings.
#1 $RXRX is still my top pick. They blend AI technology and biology to discovery drugs. They have a technology platform which could change the way we develop drugs. Its still very early, and it has to validate the platform works with human data.
Jan 20, 2024 • 23 tweets • 4 min read
🧵A lesson from the past:
I know no one wants to hear about bubbles popping, but you are gonna. I lived through many bubbles and I avoided all of them. I am going to tell you why because maybe it will save someone from the next bubble popping.
1/ I started out in the mid 1990's. I read all of Ben Graham's works and learned from him about the real science of fundamentals and valuation. I learned about buying great companies at a cheap price.
Jan 15, 2024 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
🧵The Biotech Report for $CRBU:
They did a press release along with a presentation for JPM. I was tempted to promote them above Gingko to my #2 position, but I am holding off.
I think they need data to show their version of immune evasion works. They are also solely focused on cell therapies with no other platform development. They are not doing any gene editing programs or regen medicine.
Jan 13, 2024 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
🧵The Biotech Report: $RXRX
One of the amazing things that keeps Recursion at the top of my Magnificent 7 list is their ability to really impress me all the time.
I thought their deal they did with Nvidia to build out their Supercomputer adding 4x the capacity for Machine Learning was impressive. They even did a deal with Tempus to get the 22 petabytes of data to use in oncology.
Dec 25, 2023 • 8 tweets • 6 min read
🧵My Thread on Investing Themes:
Here I a going to slowly build a thread on my key investment themes and each company I have selected in that theme.
My Thesis for Tech Bio:
It takes over $1 billion dollars to develop a new drug and still 90% of drugs fail in clinical development. The cost of new drug discovery is high which relates to higher drug prices. If we can use technology like Artificial Intelligence (AI), Large Language Models (LLM) and Machine Learning (ML), we can drive down the costs and increase the level of success rates. This comes with ideas like digital chemistry, digital antibody mapping and digital genome mapping and teaching machines to read and write DNA and RNA. It also brings with it the automated lab. Each person you can eliminate with robotics saves money. There are a lot of repetitive tasks that can be automated. Its about empowering the few key scientists with technology and automation to do more. I believe this is one of the most critical themes of the next decade. At first companies and investors will be complacent and skeptical, but as disruptive smaller companies show improved economics around technology in drug discovery, the losers will be those who do not embrace the AI revolution in biotechnology. This theme is still in it infancy. It is still fragmented by many smaller players. There is still no clear winners, but some favorites are emerging.
Dec 18, 2023 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
🧵T Cell Receptor (TCR) Therapies:
Here we will look at TCR and TIL therapies.
1/ A T cell receptor (TCR) therapy uses the original T cell receptor. Some of them will sort and select donor T cells looking for the correct ones that react to the antigen they desire. Other programs will edit the TCR to change its antigen of target to the one desired.
Dec 17, 2023 • 20 tweets • 4 min read
🧵A Look at CAR-T:
Here we will look at what CAR-T is, how it works and how it has evolved.
1/ I remember the early days of these programs as an investor. It was like many of the therapies we here about today that are untested. There were challenges and eventually huge success. It all started with autologous CAR-T therapies, but what does that really mean?
Dec 8, 2023 • 17 tweets • 4 min read
🧵Signal Transduction Pathways:
Here we will look at the pathways inside a cell that translates receptor into cell reaction.
1/ Now we are going to look at the two major growth pathways that take the signal at the growth receptor and translate it into actions by the cell through activating key genes.
