🧵 Spot the Next MSTR Before It Moons: How to Find the Purest #Bitcoin Plays

Want to know which stocks are truly driven by BTC—and which are just pretending?

We built a system to quantify that.

Here’s how to find the next MSTR 👇 Not all BTC treasuries are created equal.

Some companies moon with BTC.

Others barely budge.

We measure model fit—the correlation between a stock’s price and its BTC per share.

https://x.com/_ChaitanyaJ/status/1936135471467286864

🚨 BTC Treasuries: The Global Stacking Race Is On!
From Tokyo to Surrey, companies are sprinting to stack sats.

Who’s leading? Who’s overextended? And who’s flying under the radar?

Let’s dive into this week’s MicroStrategist Weekly 🧵👇 📈 BTC Still Above Trend

Bitcoin is cruising safely above the power law trendline—currently at the 63rd percentile.

Things are heating up, but we’re not in FOMO territory... yet.

🧵 THREAD: How $MSTR is creating a Bitcoin Monopoly & What History Tells Us Can Happen Next 🧵 1/ Asset monopolies consistently crush the market, with monopolists delivering 40% annual returns vs just 15% for competitors. That's a 25% outperformance every year! 📈

MSTR’s mNAV: The Wild Ride – How High (and Low) Can We Go?

MSTR’s multiple of net asset value (mNAV) is a rollercoaster—exciting, unpredictable, and sometimes downright terrifying.

While MSTR’s mNAV might appear erratic, the data provides clues to its long-term trajectory.

· The good news? MSTR’s mNAV is trending exponentially upward and to the right.
· The even better news? If history repeats, it could go MUCH higher.
· The bad news? There’s no guarantee we’ve hit the floor just yet.

As the bulls and bears battle it with massive bets in either direction—particularly in the options market—MSTR’s price and mNAV swing wildly.

For long-term holders, this volatility acts like a vortex, sucking more capital into the MSTR ecosystem.

However, for short-term traders, mistiming the cycle can lead to financial pain.

So, how low can we go? And more importantly, how high can we climb?

In this 🧵, we’ll decode MSTR’s mNAV, explore quantile regression models highlighting its historical patterns, and map out where it could be headed next—including price projections through December 2025.

Ready? 🚀

Buckle up! 🎢 Understanding mNAV: The Key to Unravelling MSTR’s Valuation Mystery

In our previous article, MSTR’s Mysterious mNAV: Solving the True Value Equation, we examined MSTR’s actual multiple of net asset value compared to its theoretical fair value mNAV (based on the BTC value it holds). The actual and fair values mNAV values follow a slow exponential trend up to the right.

As MicroStrategy transforms from a BTC holding company to a BTC Refinery and potentially the future BTC Bank of the world, people are willing to pay a higher premium for the BTC they hold.

As MSTR leverages up to buy more BTC, traders get FOMO and buy-in, driving the price up rapidly. Then, when it’s overextended, traders short it and drive the price back down. Eventually, when MSTR takes on more leverage and BTC rips, the shorts cover, and the cycle starts again.

· The good news for long-term MSTR common shareholders is that this massive options market acts like a vortex, attracting more money into the MSTR ecosystem.

· The bad news for short-term holders is that they can get rekt if they jump in at the top of the FOMO cycle and then ride swing back down.

But what if there were some guardrails to understand when MSTR is overbought or oversold based on long-term trends?

MSTR’s Mysterious mNAV: Solving the Equation

How the hell do you value MicroStrategy?

One day, it’s a Bitcoin ETF, like BlackRock’s IBIT.

Then they’re a Bitcoin treasury company.

Now, they’re claiming to be a Bitcoin Refinery Company (whatever that means).

You’ve probably seen plenty of arguments on X over how MSTR should be valued.

The reality is that they’re all wrong. And they don’t matter.

What matters to an MSTR investor is how the market values MSTR and how that might change.

To add some data-driven clarity, this article will examine what our models tell us about MSTR’s mysterious mNAV. 🧵

@JoshMandell6 @adam3us mNAV on the Move: Decoding the Trends

The multiple of net asset value (mNAV) is the ratio of MSTR's price to the value of the bitcoin they hold per share. As the chart below shows, MSTR’s mNAV has been trending up.

· In the early days, MSTR held BTC instead of cash and didn’t do much with it except buy more when they had spare cash. Because MSTR was the first to do this, it traded at a slight premium to its underlying Bitcoin because many cannot hold Bitcoin directly.
· They took on some debt to buy more Bitcoin, but when the Bitcoin ETFs were approved in early 2024, this edge appeared to have vanished, and MSTR’s mNAV plummeted back to 1.2.
· However, shortly after, once the options traders realised that MSTR was a leverage BTC play and they could trade MSTR’s volatility, it rose from the ashes to a peak mNAV of 3.2 in March 2024.
· Then, in August 2024, they started with their aggressive strategy of selling shares (ATM) and convertible bonds to raise even more money to buy more bitcoin and focus on BTC Yield, and the mNAV shot to 4 before crashing back to less than two a week ago.