THREAD: The entire “NATO provoked Russia” argument is built on a series of false assumptions ASSUMPTION NO. 1: Russia fears NATO attack

REALITY: Putin knows NATO poses no security threat to Russia itself. This is confirmed by Moscow’s recent unilateral demilitarisation of its border with new NATO member Finland. NATO merely prevents Russia from bullying its neighbours

1/6: Military aid for Ukraine may seem expensive but it is actually far, far cheaper than the price Western nations will have to pay if Putin’s invasion is allowed to succeed

A THREAD ⬇️ 2/6: If the West proves unwilling or unable to stop Putin in Ukraine, there will be little to deter further Russian aggression against smaller and more vulnerable former Soviet republics. Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and Kazakhstan would all be immediate targets

1/6

2022: THE YEAR RUSSIA LOST ITS MILITARY SUPERPOWER STATUS

The invasion of Ukraine has shattered Russia’s reputation as the world’s No. 2 army. Here are five of the most humiliating setbacks suffered by Putin’s discredited military: 2/6

1. Russian tanks towed away by Ukrainian tractors: in the early weeks of the war, nothing illustrated the disarray among Putin’s troops than the sight of Ukrainian farmers casually stealing damaged or abandoned Russian tanks

THREAD: The Kremlin continues to repeat predictions of a forthcoming Ukrainian “provocation”. Many observers in Kyiv and elsewhere fear this may be part of Russian efforts to justify an escalation in Putin’s Ukraine War.

rferl.org/a/russia-repea… In addition to the Kremlin’s frequent recent references to an allegedly imminent Ukrainian provocation, there are a number of other factors fueling fears of a coming Russian escalation.

THREAD: Since the start of Russian aggression in 2014, a consensus has emerged in Ukraine that international media coverage of the conflict is hampered by an over-reliance on Moscow-based journalists who lend the legitimacy of equivalence to demonstrably false Kremlin narratives. Objections often revolve around the Kremlin-friendly framing of the conflict and the choice of terminology, with particular ire reserved for outlets that refer to a "Ukrainian civil war" or talk about Russian hybrid forces as "pro-Russian separatists".

Alarm is growing over a possible major Russian escalation in Ukraine.

Key signs:

1. Russian military buildup in border zone

2. Russian naval aggression in Black Sea

3. Russian banks advised to prepare for cut-off

4. Kremlin media cranking up anti-Ukraine hysteria

Why now? There are a number of factors which could serve to convince Putin that now is an opportune moment to launch a large-scale Ukraine offensive: