Climate alarmists are annoyed that global climate-related disaster deaths have declined dramatically

Then they discovered how to cherry-pick deaths to look like they’re increasing

— just (indefensibly) remove the top 50 most deadly mega-disasters and rig the scales

🧵+refs After manipulating their stats, they have the temerity to claim “Misinterpreting statistics could be harmful if it supports a discourse minimizing the importance of climate action”

I’m pretty sure misinterpreting statistics is wrong no matter what

, p7cred.be/sites/default/…

Gasoline, not electric cars:

Two-thirds of American's want their next car to be fossil fuel driven, with just 6% battery-electric

Deloitte new 2024 Global Automotive Consumer Study

Key trend: "Slowing EV (electric car) momentum"

deloitte.com/global/en/Indu… Electric cars: Consumers worry

They worry about charging time, range anxiety,
cost, battery safety, and availability of charging infrastructure

deloitte.com/global/en/Indu…

Climate alarmists incessantly hype extreme weather

But global climate-related disaster costs are declining

This decline is not just evident globally but also for rich and poor countries, and for flood, flash flood, coastal flood, cold, drought, wind, and all damage

Why don't we hear this?

Notice, damage is measured in % GDP, as even the UN insists on measuring it (e.g. SDG 11.5.2, )

This is because the same flood or storm will create much more damage in a much richer world:

If there are twice as many houses, a flood will tend to damage twice as many houses

Update of academic paper:


unstats.un.org/sdgs/metadata/…
tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/global-disas…

https://twitter.com/RogerPielkeJr/status/1746205926074253771

Cost of climate-related disasters has dropped nearly 5-fold since 1980

True for both richer and poorer countries and for all countries

sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

As cold envelops the Northern Hemisphere, stay warm!

Despite the climate narrative, almost everywhere cold is much more deadly than heat

Cheap and reliable energy to keep us warm used to be the hallmark of prosperous countries

no more because of our climate obsession

🧵+refs Why is cold dangerous?

Because it causes outer blood vessels to constrict to conserve core body heat, driving up blood pressure

Here 2+ million measurements, 6 cities in the US

130+ is classified as high blood pressure
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29677012/

Despite breathless climate reporting about ever more fire

The US burned area last year was the lowest this century

It was less than 7% of the 1930s

Climate does increase the burned area

but zoning and forest management are much more important

Thread + refs We actually have good decadal estimates of US burned area from 1900

2023 saw less than 3% of the area that burned each year in 1900s (1900-1909)



data credibility: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.…
nifc.gov/fire-informati…

https://twitter.com/BjornLomborg/status/1353012754462998529

Congrats to Germany

Super-expensive but ineffective climate policies mean

De-industrialization

with small climate benefit


telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/…
archive.ph/uHOKy
Germans pay ever more for power

Even before war in Ukraine, costs had increased more than 50% from 2000 to early 2022

to 35 euro-cents per kWh (or 38 US¢)


destatis.de/EN/Themes/Econ…
ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/e…

Climate-related disasters have declined 97+% over the century

Richer, smarter and more resilient societies reduce disaster deaths

This swamps any potential climate signal

Why is this not reported?

Instead, media only delivers climate doom

facebook.com/photo/?fbid=93…
The risk of dying from climate-related disasters has declined 99.4%

As the global population quadrupled over the century, the risk per million declined from 241 in 1920s to 1.5 in 2020s

Compare, global risk of dying in traffic is 163

Update of sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

Wrong:

Just 6 months ago, the International Energy Agency predicted that rapid replacement with electric cars would mean gasoline demand peaked in 2019

Climate political correctness = bad predictions
🧵

archive.is/JPsdh
The International Energy Agency has gone all-in claiming/hoping that the end of fossil fuels is just around the corner

It puts them in sharp disagreement with Biden's Energy Information Administration, which sees more gas, oil and coal use up to 2050

rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/going-all-in…

Climate alarmists scare us of ever more fire

But NASA satellites show that the world is burning 𝙡𝙚𝙨𝙨

Why don't we hear this?


wsj.com/articles/clima…
archive.ph/WfDJh
modis.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/dataprod/…
Data: Fire has burned 𝙡𝙤𝙬𝙚𝙨𝙩 area in Europe in a decade

Media: constantly showed fire from Greece (much more burn), but ignored France, Spain, Bulgaria, Ukraine, Portugal and all other places with much less burn

We need better information
gwis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/apps/gwis.stat…

China is super-cold, with Beijing coldest in seven decades

Yet, some just can't help themselves: claiming it is caused by global warming

Apart from sounding stupid, it is also simply wrong

reuters.com/world/china/ch…
Apparently, a climatologist claims that the China cold fits with climate change, because we'd expect more extreme cold waves

But no, that is *not* what the 2023 UN Climate Panel summary report tells us



, p46 scmp.com/news/china/sci…
ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/

We're told solar and wind future

But when there is no wind and sun?

Batteries!

But

In 2024, storage just 5min

After that, need 100% backup, mostly fossil fuels

In 2050: 47min

Yet, 100% Solar&Wind needs almost three months



frontiersin.org/articles/10.33…
eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/d…
Lots of people suggest batteries can fix intermittency

Yes, but makes 𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗲𝘄𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘀𝘁𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗿 because we need to pay for backup

More realistic solar & wind 2x or more

from cheap but very unreliable to expensive and only less unreliable

lazard.com/research-insig…

Paris climate policy will cost a sizable fraction of 21st century prosperity

Two new, explosive, peer-reviewed papers show net-zero/1.5°C :

Benefit $4.5 trillion/year

Cost $26.8 trillion/year

Total loss is $1,800 trillion over the century

We must do better

🧵 + refs New special issue of peer-reviewed journal 𝘊𝘭𝘪𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘊𝘩𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘦 𝘌𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘰𝘮𝘪𝘤𝘴

First climate economic article shows cost and benefit of 1.5°C target

worldscientific.com/doi/10.1142/S2…
worldscientific.com/doi/10.1142/S2…

US electric car sales are overwhelmingly concentrated in the most left-leaning counties

In most of the US, the share of EVs is zero or near-zero

This is still true for 2022, where half of all EVs went to the 10% most Democratic counties

aeaweb.org/articles?id=10…
Most US electric cars sold in very left-leaning counties

Hard to see how EVs gain broad appeal

Part of the reason Ford Lost $62K for every EV sold


haas.berkeley.edu/wp-content/upl…
substack.com/home/post/p-13…

No, electric cars aren't taking over the world

Even in 2050, two-thirds of all cars globally will still be gasoline and diesel cars

Electric cars will be one-fourth

Acc to Biden's Energy Information Administration's October 2023 Reference projection eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/d…
According to Biden's Energy Information Administration's October 2023 projection

Sales in 2050 will still be 62% gasoline and diesel cars and electric cars 28%

https://twitter.com/BjornLomborg/status/1721490042411962403

According to Biden's Energy Information Administration, what percentage of US cars on the road in 2050 will be electric?

Pls answer the poll in the next tweet

before seeing the answer below

International Energy Outlook, October 2023
eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/
According to Biden's Energy Information Administration, in its reference scenario,

what percentage of US cars on the road in 2050 will be battery electric vehicles?

From October 2023, eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/

Alternative energy is bleeding money

If your pension fund invested $100 in the global stock market 15 years ago, it would now be $461.61

But if they went all-green, your pension will now only be $73.56

(Since Sept 23, global lost another 2%, green 11%)

msci.com/documents/1019…
NY City Pension Fund is proud divesting $4bn of fossil fuels stocks

— could have been smart as fossils done less well than general stock market over past 15 years

But they divested stupidly in 2021, after which fossils rallied


msci.com/documents/1019…
climate.cityofnewyork.us/subtopics/dive…

Data:

Fire has burned 𝙡𝙤𝙬𝙚𝙨𝙩 area in the US in a decade

Have you seen that reported anywhere?

Yes, Canada burned much more (constantly reported), but the US, Europe, Africa, Asia burned 𝙡𝙚𝙨𝙨

In total, world burned 𝙡𝙚𝙨𝙨

🧵 and refs below

gwis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/apps/gwis.stat…
Contrary to what you constantly hear in the media

Global fire in 2023 has so far burned 𝙡𝙚𝙨𝙨 than normal

Yes, the Americas burned much more,

but surely the media should also tell you that Africa and Europe burned much less?

gwis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/apps/gwis.stat…

Data: Fire has burned 𝙡𝙤𝙬𝙚𝙨𝙩 area in Europe in a decade

Media: constantly shows pics of fire from Greece (much more burn), but ignores Bulgaria, Ukraine, Portugal and all other places with much less burn

We need better information

https://t.co/S3dVREKnOQgwis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/apps/gwis.stat…
Contrary to what you constantly hear in the media

Global fire in 2023 has so far burned 𝙡𝙚𝙨𝙨 than normal

Yes, the Americas burned much more, but surely the media should also tell you that Africa and Europe burned much less?

https://t.co/JsMjfcWFDvgwis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/apps/gwis.stat…

2023 Record Harvest

This year, the world will likely produce more cereals (wheat, corn, rice etc) than 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝗯𝗲𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲

Yet, irresponsibly, climate alarmists claim imminent food system collapse

https://t.co/ueFY5KNtxIfao.org/worldfoodsitua…
For instance, Monbiot claims food systems are on the verge of collapse, based on a paper that says no such thing (synchronized low yields could underestimate yield reductions by 3%)

(for comparison, global feed grain is about 33%, so plenty of buffer)

theguardian.com/commentisfree/…

Heat waves deadly and more frequent bc climate

But we're badly informed when not told:

1) solution over next decades:

air-con, cheap energy, more heat-resilient cities

2) ~10x more temperature death from cold

Again, solution cheap energy for heating

https://t.co/d4JpLsDXIqthelancet.com/journals/lanpl…
Unfortunately, Europe is presented very misleadingly in latest study of heat and cold deaths:

Scale for heat is much smaller than scale for cold

(original figure on left, equal axes on right)

https://t.co/P0BWI9qqBtthelancet.com/journals/lanpl…

Five years ago Greta Thunberg tweeted

“Climate change will wipe out all of humanity" in five years

Now, she's deleted it

https://web.archive.org/web/20230307215203/https://twitter.com/gretathunberg/status/1009757391515156480

But "fact checkers" claim this story "distorts" the truth

See, Thunberg "never said the world was set to end in 2023" — she only quoted a Harvard professor saying exactly that

Nice to have politized backers that bend over backwards

apnews.com/article/fact-c…