Lots of dicussion about sufc/CW/PA relationship, recruitment etc. My opinoin....

This is a pretty sad thing to be played out so publically from both sides. There's a clear disconnect between 2 that seems beyond repair & that normally only ends in 1 way, which is the way.... no Blades fan should want this to go, CW not being here long term.

To the question of the recruitment. We clearly do not invest budget into the club that others do. We clearly don't have scope to compete with 95% of PL clubs.

The budget will have been known before....

Swansea look ruthlesssly efficient & hard to play against. Be interesting to see if they can continue to out perform their undelying numbers. 27.4 xGA only 15 conceded. Huge over performance there. Defence looks solid (27.4 xGA is still good for division) but this run.... Of low goals conceded doesn't look sustainable. On attacking side 30.5 xGF with 35 goals scored. Mid table underly attacking metrics.

Love the structure & development Cooper has given to some players many had wrote off BUT may be a tad early to have them as sure things.

Liverpool went from over performance & clinical finishing last season to under performance and being wasteful this.

The difference? My take - game state. Last season Liverpool took lead in 29/38 matches avg 2.83 points from those games. They spent a league high 44.3 mins per game on avg leading. Per game they created approx 1.08 xG (inc pens) when leading but actually scored 1.18 goals per game when ahead. So they scored 1st often, controlled the game flow, created a whole xG when ahead and were clinical....

Wayne Rooney by the way has improved Derby County a ridiculous amount. Also Bielik is every the bit the player alot of people including me said he was! No coincidence their upturn in form as been linked to his recovery from injury and starting games!

Cracking journey from CW/AK and the lads though. For players that have spent their careers in L2/L1 and Champ to do what they've done is incredible. Won't ever be forgot by me whatever happens for the rest of the season. Natural time to turn over a few/recycle and mix it up. When i say mix it up, i don't believe in changing the system. It's a sufc blueprint now, the academy play same shape and same patterns. The club is locked in to this and thank god we have a style of play concurrent throughout the club...

Here's the crux now.

We are going to be relegated. No doubt. So we now have to plan for the Championship. Chris will want 2 1st team players in January but if they aren't here after 6 months I hardly see the point. Play players who will be starting in the Championship now... Ampadu now needs to come out the team. He's impacting it for the negative and he isn't here come start of next season. People might moan but get Norwood back in now. Play 3-4-1-2 as that's what we will play in the Championship. Mcburnie & Brewster as front 2 as....

I cannot fathom what's happening.

11/14 losses by a single goal. 78% the most in PL history in terms of % share of losses by a single goal margin and for us that after only 16 games. People will hate me but it's such fine margins. Burnley didn't have a shot on target.... the goal. We controlled the game, had openings until last 10 when we completely fell off and were too passive in our forward passing. We worked good openings but we massively lacked quality and movement to provide goal threat in the box.

Box to box i cannot criticise that. We've been the better side arguably in that aspect. Our quality and decisiveness in both boxes is woeful though. Zero quality in final 3rd, strikers making it easy for Burnley CBs to gobble up crosses high or low. Defensively Robinson... Ampadu have been awful at high balls, losing individual battles with ease.

Didzy, Bash & Stevens all been excellent. Didzy outstanding. What a player.

Amapdu may be a good player in years to come but his lack of understanding of when to overlap wide, when to press...

Dom Solanke #afcb There is a world of difference for strikers between the PL & the Championship. In a side which dominates games Solanke is being a ridiculously effective pivot to play off, creates his own shots from his dribbles and carries & links play well.

I'm a data guy which means i consider process more important than output in certain contexts but you cannot criticise the mean justfying the ends in Sam's case. Is he a long term plan? No. Will it be enjoyable for neutrals? Not really but those WBA players defended better than... They have all season, limiting Liverpool to 2 shots on target and keeping themselves in with a shout. Tactical tweak to a slightly more positive approach and they got what they wanted. Sam is a results guy. Ownere bring him in to keep their club in the league to reap the £.

Statistically hard to spend any time analysing sufc this season but I cannot get over the fact that duration wise we have spent the most time at level (drawing) in games in the league. 10/13 losses have been through 1 goal margins. We seem to be on wrong end of coin flips consistently. Not scoring goals has absolutely killed us.

Thread - Rhian Brewster #sufc

The 20 year old striker earns a club record move to the Blades. Here's what Blades fans can expect to see with Brewster's strengths/areas of improvement highlighted and what i feel he'll add to the Blades front line. Using @insightMrkt player profiles tool we can see that based on his small time at Swansea Brewster was a clinical & accurate shooter. Over performing his xG by a large amount considering the sample but still getting into good enough areas and getting a lot of shots away

Let's talk simple numbers in football and why yes they do indeed have a big correlation on the ball going in the net and ultimately points on board.

To score goals you have to take shots. Not all shots are equal of course. Some shots are closer to the goal with less pressure.... Often these type of shots have a much higher likelihood to be a goal than pot shots from distance or headers from crosses.

So to score goals we want to create GOOD shots.

To create GOOD shots you often have to move the opposition defence around, to create gaps, GOOD shots....

On yesterday and reaction. I think it's absolutely fine to be frustrated about result, critical of missed chances or worried about the start.
That said many agreed with me that 17th this season would be a huge success. That's the aim quite simple. Check the wage bills season.... End. You'll find sufc in bottom 3. FACT. To stay up the staff have to squeeze every inch out of the players both individually and collectively. They also need a bit of luck with injuries, reffering decisions & being clinical. Nothing has fell our way yet but we've lost last....

This won't be popular with the doom & gloom merchants.

xG
Blades 1.68 Leeds 1.38.

I thought 2nd Half Leeds took over. Had greater energy & Rodrigo just dominated the game linking play between lines as we tired. I thought 1st half we were exceptional. I won't be critical of that performance, frankly i didn't feel we deserved to lose the game, backed up by the stats. Leeds just simply had more energy and quality in latter stages of game.

Unfortunately haven't had time to complete my side to match the brilliant @ChrisSummersell work on SUFC vs LUFC due to a bit of a family illness taking up some time over last few days BUT here's some thoughts about the huge Yorkshire derby today! Against Liverpool Leeds adopted a 4141 system with great emphasis on the full backs pushing high to provide width which allows the wide midfielders to either run in behind or invert in rotation patterns. The 2 no 8s Klich & Hernandez were very very advanced which looks to....

Thread
I spoke about long term tracking of players through advanced models a few days ago, here's another example.
James Justin is now contributing minutes to Leicester City, and looking very assured in doing so. JJ's first breakthrough season came in 16/17 season in EFL L2.... Using @insightMrkt xT (Expected Threat) model we can highlight Justin's contributions compared to all other Full backs or wing backs in L2 from that season. Justin with a well above average contribution to xT from passes & carries at the age of just 17.

Despite working on the game I still find it staggering when you here of clubs targets (genuine interest not just speculation) for a similar/same position and the 2 or 3 names suggested are all very different profiles. There's absolutely nuance to recruitment that isn't easy to acknowledge on the outside BUT the structure of having a playing philosphy, having detailed positional profiles, a clear identity of what each player is required to do in whatever system or style of play you choose...

Regardless of anything all i know is I'm so proud of those lads for the effort, the work rate and desire to Shut down Villa. We've given them nothing. Brilliant from Burke in build up to penalty. Not mentioned in commentary but outstanding tactical tweak by CW... We had gone 441 and were defending well but struggling to have any real counter threat. Amapdu on and back to 351. Basham ridiculous energy to arrive in box to win penalty. Amapdu been fantastic defensively since being bought on.

https://twitter.com/JamesPearceLFC/status/1308006786788720641

In all seriousness it shows that for a number of reasons we simply don't have the finances this summer to get a 1st choice striker who isn't some form of gamble. I've said this a million times but this is where opening up to options from the continent can be of huge help.

Not sure anyone is too fussed about being out of the Carabao. Low chance of winning it & right now without fans i'm not sure it holds any endearment. Minutes in more of the squads legs, new boys got time too. Burnley were much more like a full strength side so decent to end 1-1 Positives no doubt about: Didzy, Max Lowe, Berge. Thought Didzy looked like he needed games and time but some touches and link up were nice and good to grab a poachers goal.

Lowe looked excellent, pacy, strong runner, good delivery. Wing back will make him even better...