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Bluegrass Capital Profile picture
Bluegrass Capital
@BluegrassCap
Student of business models. Player of infinite games. Lets build something together.
Cameron Priest Profile picture Stu McKinnon Profile picture Rad Kapital Profile picture Fried Profile picture Andy Gardner Profile picture 7 subscribed
Nov 21, 2020 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
@nachkari The internet is about scale economics. So it's not about finding high roic, but about finding acceptable roic that persists for a long time. @nachkari The best management teams have essentially no training outside of talking to customers. Competitive strategy is of limited value for entrepreneurs creating new markets.
May 10, 2020 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Learnings from Thomas Watson / IBM of the 1920s. Scary how good business models & practices repeat throughout time. Watson himself learned from John Patterson of National Cash Register, improving on the few weaknesses he noticed at NCR. 1/5 Watson leased equipment creating recurring revenue + competitive barrier to entry, turning a customer's large, upfront capital expense into a small, recurring operating expense. He combined that with a razor / razor blade model. 2/5 Image
May 3, 2020 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
What were your biggest takeaways from Berkshire's annual meeting? Buffett on the Louisiana Purchase; ”Don’t sell the mineral rights.”
Feb 29, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Reinvestment opportunity is the last criteria I consider, probably spend the least time understanding, yet is the most important in determining investment outcome. Viewing the investment funnel like this, my excuse=each of the 5 filters above reinvestment need to exist before reinvestment can be evaluated. For most companies, you never get past filter #2 or #3, thus spend least time thinking about most important determinant of success.
Dec 3, 2019 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
At present, is there a better commercial storage solution for renewable energy sources than this? "Hydro storage currently dominates total
installed storage power capacity, with 96% of the total gigawatts installed globally in mid-2017."

Its all dams... batteries arent even on the radar yet. irena.org/-/media/Files/…
Nov 21, 2019 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Content & revenue models by media type... ... if assume social media & digital distribution had always existed, how might the above models & comparisons be different? If social drives old content (eg back catalogs), pretty sure it changes monetization model for games, music & news?
Oct 14, 2019 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
WEN = 1st restaurant franchisor Ive seen say publicly they will roll out dark kitchens on top of their existing footprint (from their investor day) related WEN slide
Oct 13, 2019 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Contactless payments for small ticket, recurring items are the leading edge of future growth for digital payments via @scuttleblurb. The low cost network operator should have even greater advantage in this cohort than existing cohorts. @scuttleblurb does this sound like a digital wallet for businesses? scuttleblurb.com/vma3/
Sep 11, 2019 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Ecolab's virtuous customer cycle (last week's investor day) ECL announces new customer vertical:

Datacenters use 80x more water than a hospital; water is a recurring & critical cost of doing business. Potentially large & fast growing end market for water efficiency where customers are not price sensitive.
Sep 1, 2019 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
DPZ reverse DCF This is dumbed down as much as possible, fwiw, is a blunt force tool, & suffers to explain much. Examples: concentration from supply chain ops & US biz vs international, vs mix shift going forward; capital structure & use of FCF.
Jul 20, 2019 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Compared to Netflix, Spotify has several advantages with content creators that could make its path to participating in content economics even easier... SPOT data capture is much broader & higher quality than NFLX, thus more valuable to creator & their management.
Jul 7, 2019 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
"Complexity Investing" whitepaper: a focus on "companies that are adaptable, long-term focused, innovative, possess long-duration growth, and maximize non-zero-sum outcomes" ht @iamschoeb

static1.squarespace.com/static/5ca38f3… "returns in complex systems are distributed in a fashion much closer to power laws than normal," and occur via "punctuated equilibrium"
Jun 12, 2019 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Druckenmiller: "I think we're in one of the biggest productivity inflection booms since the late 1800s. I am very confident that it is not being measured in real GDP." Uses example of pictures being taken and saved and shown for free on our phones vs paying to have pictures developed 10 years ago.

Recent tech advances are not only not captured in GDP, they are SUBTRACTING from reported GDP by replacing something that used to add to GDP.
May 26, 2019 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
US food order / delivery market share trends by company, population & type of competitive market Some "takeaways" from this data set:
May 21, 2019 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
"Monro’s tire installation services available to customers who purchase tires online from Amazon and select the Ship-to-Store option" here's my search for replacement tires for my Jeep vs the first tire retailer that came up on google
Apr 11, 2019 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Passive investing has had a large impact on equity markets. Though growing fast, its impact on fixed income markets has been much lower. Key barriers to adoption have been the lack of name brand indices (no well known index = no ETF to sell) in the space & >illiquid markets. To date, fixed income trading has primarily been monetized by the existing exchanges via their data / analytics business. The most valuable piece of data to control = an index & the corresponding data that is owned by the index operator.
Apr 2, 2019 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Installed base of international movie screens growing @ 13% CAGR Movie theaters vs sports & theme parks; just as the barbells are working in retail (dollar stores & luxury taking share from the middle), also true in entertainment; movie theaters = the dollar stores of out of home entertainment
Apr 2, 2019 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
6 case studies per former Ruane, Cunniff, Goldfarb analyst on performing scuttlebutt research, developing real world contacts & personal relationships, where to focus your questions & time, etc. ht FinTwit

dropbox.com/s/c8qxz7fefjx5… why Lountzis goes into the field himself
Mar 12, 2019 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
S-1 for electronic bond trading operator Tradeweb ht @TenYearNote sec.gov/Archives/edgar… the ongoing "Electronification of Trading"
Feb 27, 2019 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
CSGP eviscerating Apartments . com competitor RentPath CSGP's success w LoopNet post acquisition
Feb 24, 2019 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Zillow is at a huge biz model disadvantage not controlling its own MLS. Having exclusive, vertical access to MLS data=dominant share+>margins in Australia/UK. Z needs to create its own supply that doesnt overlap w MLS. Offers creates new controlled supply.
As a business model analogy, Zillow is trying to do to the existing RE market (anchored around local MLS) what Netflix did to the cable bundle.
inman.com/2014/09/30/rup…