CFR senior fellow. Views are my own. Retweets are not endorsements. Writes on sovereign debt and capital flows.
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Now the US still has a bit of privilege -- with a net external debt position of 45% of GDP (depends a bit on bond market valuation) and a negative net equity position, the income balance should be negative ... the world owns more US assets than the US owns global assets
The Chinese state banks were buying fx (limiting appreciation) earlier this fall (during the carry unwind), and they stopped buying in November -- but there is no real evidence of selling (I expected modest sales)
Net note (coupon) issuance was about 4% of GDP, and if you add in the increase in privately held marketable Treasuries from the Fed's balance sheet contraction, the net "supply" of notes to market mapped to the fiscal deficit
Turkey's balance of payments is currently, well, pretty healthy -- as the chart above shows, the current account deficit is falling and for now is fully funded by (admittedly expensive for Turkey) lira inflows.
Chinese exports have been on fire (rising at 12% or more in volume terms ... ) while import growth has decelerated (suggesting a weak domestic economy)
This is one of the most important charts for summarizing the global economy -- after 2020, Chinese export volume growth has consistently outpaced its reported import volume growth (and overall global trade)
A central issue for China is that the yuan is currently at a quite weak level -- basically it is at its post 2008 lows -- prior to Trump's arrival in office. Any further move takes it into more or less uncharted territory.
My personal view is that trying to coerce countries into using the dollar (which they voluntarily do now, apart from those facing serious sanctions) is actually a long-run threat to the dollar's global role. It makes the use of the dollar appear to be a favor to the US ...
Tesla also got financing at the "SoE" rate from the state banks ...
First, such a deal is possible only because China's does in fact manage its currency -- so I would view it as a less of a step toward "flexibility" and more of a recognition of the reality of ongoing management. 
Apple's decision to put on a Green Jersey back in 2014 (and have its Irish unit purchase its Jersey unit to get a big depreciation allowance) set a precedent that many companies followed when the so called double Irish was phased out ...
One part of the TIC data requires no interpretation -- China's holdings of short-dated US paper and US bank deposits are up
I obviously agree with this point
What's more, China's investment in new steel capacity -- which did fall from 2014 to 2017 -- has stayed near its 2021 highs even with the collapse in real estate demand
