Brad Setser Profile picture
CFR senior fellow. Views are my own. Retweets are not endorsements. Writes on sovereign debt and capital flows.
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Sep 16 5 tweets 2 min read
My actual concern -- a concern that is global -- is that China's unbalanced domestic economy has contributed to an incredibly unbalanced pattern of global trade.

1/ Image China has a great deal of agency. It chooses to have its state banks intervene to hold its currency down v the USD. It has chosen to maintain a regressive tax system (with heavy taxes on low wage work and consumption) and to limit redistribution and social benefits

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Sep 12 8 tweets 3 min read
President Trump has ripped up the global trade rules.

But, so far at least, there hasn't been much impact on "core" global trade.

All the volatility has been in pharmaceuticals and gold ...

cfr.org/blog/trump-sho… US imports are on track to be up modestly for the year
(with strong electronics imports driven by the AI boom and the tariff exclusion for chips offsetting weakness in vehicle trade)

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Sep 10 7 tweets 2 min read
Probably time for China to try a different strategy

The IMF article IV is due this fall. Shouldn't the IMF be recommending that the central government use its obvious fiscal space to directly support household spending?

1/ Image The FT stated the obvious "Beijing has relied on exports in recent years to meet its ambitious annual growth targets" - the IMF should too ...

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ft.com/content/156125…
Sep 9 5 tweets 2 min read
A chart that I always find interesting -- global reserves v Treasury notes and bonds (reserve managers generally don't buy bills) as a share of US GDP

Period between 03 and 08 notable for reserve growth w-o // increase in supply of US classic reserve assets

1/ Image Always striking to me that there is a lot more talk about the dollar as a reserve currency now, when the impact of reserve holdings on markets is waning, than there was talk of the market impact massive reserve growth back when it was happening

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Sep 9 7 tweets 3 min read
Not a fan of most of the Miran paper (and the Treasury restructuring proposals), but also not a fan of Employ America's claim that dollar strength doesn't impact the US manufacturing sector

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employamerica.org/monetary-polic…Image This argument in particular has two particular problems --

a) it ignores lags, and treats 02 to 08 as one period of dollar weakness
b) it doesn't look at petrol and non-petrol trade

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Sep 9 5 tweets 2 min read
Set aside politics for a moment (which no one in Argentina ever does) and focus on the numbers. Milei's core problem is that fiscal adjustment hasn't generated balance of payments adjustment. Net out IMF lending and Argentina has been burning through its reserves

1/ Image and set aside funds borrowed from the IMF and SDR conversion -- even so Argentina's net fx reserves are flat (data through July). And ~ half of that fx more or less is CNY from the PBOC swap line which isn't freely convertible into USD ...

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Sep 8 10 tweets 4 min read
Some additional detail on China's trade surplus, which is up about $400b since the IMF (in)famously declared imbalances were receding back in the summer of 2024 ...

1/many Image First things first -- don't obsess too much about the slowdown in exports relative to July. That is mostly a base effect. Exports in dollar terms have been pretty constant the last few months, at levels (in USD terms) a bit higher than last year

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Sep 6 5 tweets 2 min read
According to @Lingling_Wei China isn't feeling much heat from Trump's tariffs, and isn't currently inclined to make significant concessions without getting something in return. That shouldn't be a surprise -- China's overall exports are still doing fine

1/ Image President Xi apparently views the phase one deal as one sided (China accepted significant US tariffs and committed to large purchases to avoid even larger tariffs ... ) and doesn't want a repeat

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wsj.com/world/china/ch…
Sep 4 6 tweets 2 min read
The dollar, famously, rallied during the global financial crisis (which originated in the US).

It didn't though rally because foreign investors rushed into US assets --

A new blog on an important bit of financial history

cfr.org/article/foreig… There is a very common belief that foreign investors ran into the safety of US assets (and specifically Treasuries) during the global financial crisis (folks tend to reason from the dollar's rise)

But that isn't what the balance of payments data shows Image
Aug 24 5 tweets 2 min read
Good chart from the Times; would love to see EU broken out between Ireland and the rest of the EU ... and line items for Singapore and Switzerland for the patent protected/ branded meds

1/ Image And useful detail on a number of meds, including those where there is a well known (but not yet resolved) dependence on a few factories in China

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nytimes.com/2025/08/23/hea…
Aug 22 4 tweets 2 min read
A somewhat premature headline from the Economist --

Last I checked, China's growth was being driven by:

a) net exports of manufactures
b) investment in new manufacturing production

1/4 Image I don't see any signs of deindustrialization in China's trade (China is still gaining market share in a range of industries, including autos)

2/4 Image
Aug 18 6 tweets 3 min read
Euro area exports fell back to earth in June, after pharma front running inflated the q1 number.

Imports (excluding fuels) continue to march up even with slow growth. China ...

1/ Image Imports from China continue to be on an strong upward trend (Chinese industrial policies, China's undervalued CNY .. ). They are now running around EUR 40b a month/ EUR 500b a year. The EV case didn't have a macro impact

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Aug 15 14 tweets 5 min read
Foreign appetite for safe US government bonds seems to have waned a bit, at least in June.

But foreign demand for US risk assets was exceptionally strong. Big inflows into equities and corporate bonds in the June TIC data (close to $150b)

1/ Image Looks like there were net sales of LT Treasuries tho, led by official investors ... so a bifurcated report

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home.treasury.gov/news/press-rel…
Aug 10 10 tweets 3 min read
Chinese state banks were buying fx to keep the CNY at the fix during the second quarter; with China now intervening to hold the CNY down (v the USD) it would not be hard to engineer a stronger yuan ...

1/ Apart from a brief period in q1 when the market feared China would respond to Trump tariffs with a CNY depreciation, fx settlement has been positive since September --indicating that China's state actors are generally pushing the CNY down.

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Aug 9 8 tweets 3 min read
According to the WSJ, the "transshipment" provisions will in reality be rules of origin that limited embedded Chinese content --

1/ Image This potentially matters quite a lot, as the primary impact of the tariffs on China to date have been a reallocation of the point of final assembly inside Asia -- so rising imports from the ASEAN countries and the NIEs (Korea, Taiwan)

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Aug 7 8 tweets 3 min read
China's seemingly inexorable march toward a $1.2 trillion goods surplus (customs data) continues.

The July monthly surplus was a bit below $100b, but still up about $15 billion compared to July 2024.

1/ Image Higher US tariffs are having an impact on bilateral trade (the US and Chinese data agree on the trend tho not the level of trade) ...

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Aug 6 4 tweets 2 min read
Lots of folks (including the FT!) seem puzzled by the broad strength of Chinese exports so far this year --

The answer tho seems easy. China's real exchange rate has fallen by at least 15% over the last couple of years -- giving China's exports a big boost

1/ Image . @sobel_mark has a good piece today for OMFIF making the case that an appreciation of the yuan is a necessary component of any global effort to bring China's surplus down. I of course agree

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omfif.org/2025/08/its-ti…
Aug 5 6 tweets 2 min read
One by product of Trump's obsession with bilateral trade deficits is that it has brought attention to the big deficits the US runs with pharmaceutical exporting tax centers ...

1/ Image The deficit in pharmaceuticals is now big ($200b, ~ 1/6th the total deficit ...) and 1/2 of that is with Ireland alone ... (hence the bigger bilateral deficit with Ireland than with Germany this year)

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Aug 5 9 tweets 4 min read
The June trade data confirms that imports are down a low from the March (gold and pharma front running) peak -- but they aren't down as much in q2 as they were up in q1 ...

1/ Image So the goods deficit is still running ahead of its 2024 pace, even without all the pharma craziness ...

(Pharma imports fell $10b in June v May, driving much of the import weakness)

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Aug 4 5 tweets 2 min read
Good summary of the state of Trump's term two tariff offensive, from the FT's Aime Williams and @dimi

1/ Image The "deals" struck by the deal maker in chief haven't been entirely, well, coherent -- raising tariffs on SE Asia to ~ 20 and some tariffs on Mexico to 25% helped China out, as it reduced the edge of alternative suppliers



2/ ft.com/content/05e524…Image
Aug 4 12 tweets 4 min read
President Trump often says he admires President Xi.

He now seems to want to emulate President Xi (or at least China) when it comes to massaging economic data.

And it sure seems like China will up, adjust, its q2 external surplus (down)

1/ Image The issue, as some already know, is that China changed how it calculates its goods surplus in the middle of the pandemic, moving away from the (reliable, and verifiable from counterparty data) customs data to an "internal" survey ...

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