Votes for right-wing minor parties tend NOT to be driven by a rise in right-wing ideals.

They’re HEAVILY linked to economic and social factors.

Below is booth data for LDP, UAP, PHON showing Senate votes.

What do you see?

1/..

https://twitter.com/roymorganaus/status/1777219455153832410

The most obvious thing is the vote skews heavily towards outer metro and regional areas.

This graph shows the vote by electorate size (as a proxy for “regionalness”).

Bigger electorate?
Bigger One Nation vote.

But by itself it’s not enough to explain the vote.

2/..

Word in #Farrer is this event has been a big bust.

“There’s more staff and speakers here than attendees”

“Average age sixty-something”

Really interesting to see…

1/.. Photos + agenda suggest there are 33 speakers and about 70 people listening in live.

The ~60ish estimate of average age looks ballpark correct.

2/..

Idk why they have to make shit up.

They could criticise factual things. Or use evidence. Or policy. But don’t.

At least she got ONE out of 16 right

❌ not a party

❌ not their own name (it’s a media name), nor is it consistent given the definition of who’s “teal” shifts

1/.. ❌ pretty easy to Google and confirm he’s not a billionaire, however…

❌ …he’s not a paymaster nor even majority donor. Again, pretty easy to Google donation disclosures, reporting, and public transparency. No need to make this up.

2/..

First look (just woke from a nap)

3.85% shifted in TPP from LIB to ALP - which is about half of what’s necessary to flip the seat (2022 TCP was 56.27% to Labor)

All the key booths yet to report except Mt Eliza were won by ALP in 2022.

Only 2 of the 8 significant booths saf… …within 49.99 to 56.27%

None sit within the current swing range

So none of the remaining booths are likely to flip

Pretty clear imho Labor wins this.

🧵: The contact between Sofronoff and Albrechtsen is inexplicable - and raises significant questions.

Google shows 103 related articles on The Australian published in this period…

google.com.au/search?q=%22ja…

https://twitter.com/farrm51/status/1752617206226243822

These articles *universally* deride Higgins & others involved in the prosecution, and laud the bravery of Lehrmann.

The inquiry had barely begun before she began her editorial character assessments.

And it’s into this environment that Sofronoff’s 7 hours & 55 calls were made…

Watching ADVANCE “flood the zone with 💩” is a masterclass in manufacturing outrage.

The news quote?… It’s not from a topic expert.

It’s an opinion piece by a right-wing podcaster regurgitated as a news citation to enhance its credibility.

Let’s deconstruct the strategy:

🧵:

Let’s deconstruct this strategy, called “Borrowing Authority”.

It plays on a shortcut hard-wired in our brain where we search for things we can recognise as authoritative when facing situations of complexity, ambiguity and uncertainty.

(See: Cialdini)

news.wpcarey.asu.edu/20070131-gentl…

On this, it’s important to recognise how DISENGAGED Australians are with news.

Let’s take a sample of 1,000 Australians…

- 610 will consume National news 3x a week, so if a story lasts less than 48 hours, they’ll likely miss it.

- 323 will read news stories online

🧵[thread]

https://twitter.com/brenthodgson/status/1744541691284226133

- 142 are likely to click on a news article (130 pay for a news subscription)

It means AT LEAST 85.8% of Australians’ perception of an issue is ENTIRELY made up of what they skimmed in a headline.



But it gets worse…infrastructure.gov.au/sites/default/…

Extremist conspiracy theory groups have now CONFIRMED they will be targeting 2024 VIC Council Elections

WA Council Elections saw MANY successfully elected

Experts including @KGelber & @DrJoshuaRoose have raised alarm bells about this group

1/🧵

abc.net.au/news/2023-04-0…

https://twitter.com/sos149/status/1741053240366751753

How do you prevent them from securing a stranglehold over your local council?

Frankly, the ONLY way is by campaigning locally to get BETTER candidates elected.

No amount of social media awareness-raising can compete against local engagement with actual voters.

2/..

There’s a group dynamic I love about this time of year - especially around “bring a plate” events.

Invariably people bring more than they themselves could eat.

They bring generosity!

LOTS of it!

When we are connected, we tend to be at our best & most generous.

…BUT…

1/… …But when we are isolated, we tend to be more “protective” of the little we might have individually.

We can see it here on Twitter.

(As a simple measure, compare the follower and following counts of some progressive vs conservative accounts for example.)

2/..

🇦🇺: *200+ years of historic policy that targeted, marginalised, and even murdered Indigenous people*

🚫 No Voters: “There’s nothing we can do about the past.”

🇦🇺: *1 policy that seeks to redress that history, and create a positive future*

🚫 No Voters: “That’s racism!” If you think restorative justice, or self-determination by marginalised minorities, is racist…

…There’s no easy way to say this, but you’re wrong.

Let’s pick out all of the important words in this definition.

Brief history lesson:

Indigenous people (1788-onwards): *had almost everything they are, know and own taken*

Indigenous people (1901): *explicitly written OUT of Constitution by Deakin, who also authored the White Australia Policy and dehumanized Aboriginal people*

1/6 Indigenous people (1885-1942): *couldn't even vote, few rights... until we recruited them for WW2*

Indigenous people (1944-1962): *Mostly couldn't event vote. Some like Army vets could - but only if they didn't talk to Indigenous people outside their immediate family*

2/6

The timeline of appointments gives some clues here.

The Yes23 campaign is run by Australians for Indigenous Constitutional Recognition Ltd.

It was registered on 1 October 2019.

🧵

https://twitter.com/SenatorThorpe/status/1697479210116505860

This coincided with the beginning of the Indigenous Voice Co-Design Process (October 2019).

The process was announced by Hon Ken Wyatt AM - Minister for Indigenous Australians, the Member for Hasluck, and (crucially) a member of Scott Morrison's Cabinet at the time.

5 days is a long time in Liberal politics.

RECAP 🧵:

Liberals claim “new dawn” victory in one-horse Warrandyte race.

Pentecostal Nicole Werner joins party room, replacing right-aligned Ryan Smith.

Deeming suit hits.

KJK suit hits. Battin comes out with his wacky car crash theories. Seeks front pages.

Pesutto forced to respond to rumours it’s a play for the top job.

Party says we won’t pay legal bills for 4 MPs targeted by KJK’s suit, or JP’s legal bills as coffers are dry.

Respectfully, if this is the case, it’s also the case that you’ve been party to this decline: treating politics as a bloodsport, and reporting on personalities ahead of policy.

If you believe the Greens, Labor and Liberals are all lacking – but deny…

theage.com.au/politics/victo… …oxygen to better alternatives by continuing to report the trainwrecks of incumbents over their betters, haven’t you contributed to maintaining incumbency?

Damn woke culture crusaders and their willingness to accept defamation suits from plaintiffs then cancel them by finding substantive fact that the plaintiff did indeed murder unarmed civilians in a war zone constituting a war crime.

Political correctness has gone too far!

/s I mean what kind of world are we living in when you can’t literally murder people in ritualistic “blooding” ceremonies and get away with it while being a white member of the armed forces?

Back in my day we’d give them senior managerial positions at PwC and 7.

/s

@jvscricket @Mon4Kooyong 3 great questions!

1. EV batteries get ground up and turned into about $4400 of raw materials @ 97% recycling rate (Eg Ecobatt), or reused in lower load applications like Audi is doing with forklift batteries, and Nissan is doing with home batteries.

Thread: 🧵 @jvscricket @Mon4Kooyong 2. The batteries last longer than the cars. Most come with an 8 year warranty, but Tesla estimates typical battery replacement is around 300,000 to 500,000 miles (482,000-804,000 kms) or 1500 charge cycles. That's 37-62 years for the average Australian car @ ≈13,000km/yr.

So uh….

How are we doing in Australia with our pokies-backed Leagues clubs, and wall-to-wall gambling advertising?

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1646471388407156739

Ping @zdaniel this news might be up your alley…

So inflation affects us all…

…but interest rate rises overwhelmingly target Australians who have less wealth, are newer to the housing market, and found it harder to enter it.

And they BENEFIT deposit holders and many investors.

Seems fair, right?

sbs.com.au/news/article/w… The alternative is using POLICY to address the drivers of inflation.

For example:

- reducing record energy profits & their effect have on inflation
- addressing supply chain issues by addressing shortages of components and transport
- addressing building sector finance risks

Crikey’s @cameronwilson has been reporting on this guy’s Facebook page for some time.

Pics include a sampling of ongoing comments I screen grabbed today, and a quote from one of Wilson’s articles discussing how Clark’s FB page is allegedly fuelling a search for infamy. On a semi-related note… remember the “African Gangs” problem in Melbourne?

Remember how they robbed jewellery stores repeatedly, and performed home invasions in a hunt for getaway cars and jewellery?

The problem disappeared suddenly – right?

dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4…

The plot thickens…

It turns out the PREVIOUS recruitment event for the Liberal Party’s hardline Christian Right featured none other than Kevin Andrews.

🧵

https://twitter.com/brenthodgson/status/1641257015350816770

Not just that, but Victorian Liberal MP Ryan Smith has been added to the speakers schedule of the UPCOMING event in a move that reveals alliances and battle-lines forming ahead of an expected Victorian Leadership Spill.

Lemme explain why this is SUPER valuable…

Events like SXSW and TED are idea super-pollinators.

Ideators & implementers from EVERYWHERE travel to be there – to bring the seeds of good things home to grow.

It means putting @byron_fay_ on this stage could lead to ONE MORE Mon…

https://twitter.com/simonahac/status/1645705746297020416

… Or it could be ONE MORE David Pocock.

Or ONE MORE Kylea Tink, Zoe Daniel, Kate Chaney, Allegra Spender, Helen Haines, or Sophie Scamps.

And THIS could be the ONE vote in parliament that leads to positive forward-looking policy instead of more of the same.