Heard an absurd take that new WFH protections would see businesses refusing to hire “marginalised people” recently.

What a load of utter 🦖💩.

Here’s the facts:

• 21.9% of Australians have 1+ disabilities. Since widespread WFH adoption (2019) their employment is up 4.4%! • The data shows mothers, carers, and those with chronic illnesses are all benefitting similarly.

• The data also shows WFH is taking pressure off infrastructure, and making it more feasible to live in more affordable outer-suburban housing.

Hearing Australian Local Govt Association’s General Assembly (ALGA) was derailed by NAT MP Anne Webster today.

Apparently her 20-min speech was so piercing in its dog-whistling it led to a board walk-off.

Beginning with an anti-renewable rant, it apparently moved onto…

1/.. …complaining of the closure of cultural heritage sites (like Mt Arapilies/Dyurrite) to rock-climbers, and other cultural heritage sites closed to campers.

Even Coalition-linked ALGA board members seated on stage walked off during the remarks.

2/..

In Tamworth, about 1km from Barnaby’s office, is a museum dedicated to an engineering feat that placed the town among world-leaders of the era.

In 1888, Tamworth was one of the first towns in the world to produce electricity for street lighting – 15 years before Sydney.

1/..

https://twitter.com/barnaby_joyce/status/1899984705828876451

It took 7 years of advocacy for the technology.

Unfortunately most of the town’s elected leaders didn’t trust the evidence, and briefly invested in gas street lamps instead, figuring it would be more economical than “untested” electrification tech.

2/..

Ever wanted to see a push-poll in action?

Here's one that's running in Wentworth right now.

(I don't want to ruin the surprises, so I'll let you guess who might be running it...)

1/.. It starts off with a reasonable first question...

2/..

This town is the size of Tamworth, in a region the population of Canberra.

What’s fascinating about rallies in the US (in particular Democrat rallies) is that they pivot into volunteer-led canvassing.

In Nevada in August, 15,000 attendees resulted in 5,010 volunteers.

🧵

https://twitter.com/amy_siskind/status/1834734474828910674

In a less structured tarmac rally in Detroit, 1,100 people signed up as volunteers from a crowd estimated at 15,000.

And a rally of 12,000 in Wisconsin led to the canvassing of 13,000 local voters in a single weekend.

Front page of the West today speaks to how “low water marks” aren’t necessary low tides to return.

The polling is for the seat of Hillarys, which at one point was “Liberal Heartland” (19% margin a decade ago).

But, having lost the seat, voters aren’t coming back.

1/🧵 The phenomenon is happening elsewhere too.

In December polling, the primary vote in WA for Labor had fallen nearly 16% - but less than half of that had been picked back up by the Liberals.

Current trends suggest WA Libs will end up with 6 of 27 gains required.

2/🧵

I don’t think Dutton likes VIC & NSW…

Higher edu is Victoria’s #3 export behind food, and fibres (textiles and timber).

It supports 40,000 jobs, and generates $6.9bn in export revenue for Victoria ($38bn in total national economic activity) with similar in NSW.

1/ 🧵 About 70% of all international students head to Victoria or NSW - because that’s where most of Australia’s Universities are located: in Melbourne (VIC) and Sydney (NSW).

It means the impact of “stop the international students” policy is low outside of Melbourne and Sydney…

2/

Once upon a time Uni was viewed as a great nation-builder and leveller of class: a reliable path to overcoming social disadvantage, an investment worth making widely.

Nowadays, sadly, it’s perceived by some as a revenue stream for government.

abc.net.au/news/2024-03-0… I sometimes wonder if conservatives would advocate for us to become a nation of plumbers as VET is cheap.

A return to a manual labour economy of the 1970’s.

I put their pieces together and wonder what kind of nation they want to build.

Then I realise: they don’t.

Votes for right-wing minor parties tend NOT to be driven by a rise in right-wing ideals.

They’re HEAVILY linked to economic and social factors.

Below is booth data for LDP, UAP, PHON showing Senate votes.

What do you see?

1/..

https://twitter.com/roymorganaus/status/1777219455153832410

The most obvious thing is the vote skews heavily towards outer metro and regional areas.

This graph shows the vote by electorate size (as a proxy for “regionalness”).

Bigger electorate?
Bigger One Nation vote.

But by itself it’s not enough to explain the vote.

2/..

Word in #Farrer is this event has been a big bust.

“There’s more staff and speakers here than attendees”

“Average age sixty-something”

Really interesting to see…

1/.. Photos + agenda suggest there are 33 speakers and about 70 people listening in live.

The ~60ish estimate of average age looks ballpark correct.

2/..

Idk why they have to make shit up.

They could criticise factual things. Or use evidence. Or policy. But don’t.

At least she got ONE out of 16 right

❌ not a party

❌ not their own name (it’s a media name), nor is it consistent given the definition of who’s “teal” shifts

1/.. ❌ pretty easy to Google and confirm he’s not a billionaire, however…

❌ …he’s not a paymaster nor even majority donor. Again, pretty easy to Google donation disclosures, reporting, and public transparency. No need to make this up.

2/..

First look (just woke from a nap)

3.85% shifted in TPP from LIB to ALP - which is about half of what’s necessary to flip the seat (2022 TCP was 56.27% to Labor)

All the key booths yet to report except Mt Eliza were won by ALP in 2022.

Only 2 of the 8 significant booths saf… …within 49.99 to 56.27%

None sit within the current swing range

So none of the remaining booths are likely to flip

Pretty clear imho Labor wins this.

🧵: The contact between Sofronoff and Albrechtsen is inexplicable - and raises significant questions.

Google shows 103 related articles on The Australian published in this period…

google.com.au/search?q=%22ja…

https://twitter.com/farrm51/status/1752617206226243822

These articles *universally* deride Higgins & others involved in the prosecution, and laud the bravery of Lehrmann.

The inquiry had barely begun before she began her editorial character assessments.

And it’s into this environment that Sofronoff’s 7 hours & 55 calls were made…

Watching ADVANCE “flood the zone with 💩” is a masterclass in manufacturing outrage.

The news quote?… It’s not from a topic expert.

It’s an opinion piece by a right-wing podcaster regurgitated as a news citation to enhance its credibility.

Let’s deconstruct the strategy:

🧵:

Let’s deconstruct this strategy, called “Borrowing Authority”.

It plays on a shortcut hard-wired in our brain where we search for things we can recognise as authoritative when facing situations of complexity, ambiguity and uncertainty.

(See: Cialdini)

news.wpcarey.asu.edu/20070131-gentl…

On this, it’s important to recognise how DISENGAGED Australians are with news.

Let’s take a sample of 1,000 Australians…

- 610 will consume National news 3x a week, so if a story lasts less than 48 hours, they’ll likely miss it.

- 323 will read news stories online

🧵[thread]

https://twitter.com/brenthodgson/status/1744541691284226133

- 142 are likely to click on a news article (130 pay for a news subscription)

It means AT LEAST 85.8% of Australians’ perception of an issue is ENTIRELY made up of what they skimmed in a headline.



But it gets worse…infrastructure.gov.au/sites/default/…

Extremist conspiracy theory groups have now CONFIRMED they will be targeting 2024 VIC Council Elections

WA Council Elections saw MANY successfully elected

Experts including @KGelber & @DrJoshuaRoose have raised alarm bells about this group

1/🧵

abc.net.au/news/2023-04-0…

https://twitter.com/sos149/status/1741053240366751753

How do you prevent them from securing a stranglehold over your local council?

Frankly, the ONLY way is by campaigning locally to get BETTER candidates elected.

No amount of social media awareness-raising can compete against local engagement with actual voters.

2/..

There’s a group dynamic I love about this time of year - especially around “bring a plate” events.

Invariably people bring more than they themselves could eat.

They bring generosity!

LOTS of it!

When we are connected, we tend to be at our best & most generous.

…BUT…

1/… …But when we are isolated, we tend to be more “protective” of the little we might have individually.

We can see it here on Twitter.

(As a simple measure, compare the follower and following counts of some progressive vs conservative accounts for example.)

2/..

🇦🇺: *200+ years of historic policy that targeted, marginalised, and even murdered Indigenous people*

🚫 No Voters: “There’s nothing we can do about the past.”

🇦🇺: *1 policy that seeks to redress that history, and create a positive future*

🚫 No Voters: “That’s racism!” If you think restorative justice, or self-determination by marginalised minorities, is racist…

…There’s no easy way to say this, but you’re wrong.

Let’s pick out all of the important words in this definition.

Brief history lesson:

Indigenous people (1788-onwards): *had almost everything they are, know and own taken*

Indigenous people (1901): *explicitly written OUT of Constitution by Deakin, who also authored the White Australia Policy and dehumanized Aboriginal people*

1/6 Indigenous people (1885-1942): *couldn't even vote, few rights... until we recruited them for WW2*

Indigenous people (1944-1962): *Mostly couldn't event vote. Some like Army vets could - but only if they didn't talk to Indigenous people outside their immediate family*

2/6

The timeline of appointments gives some clues here.

The Yes23 campaign is run by Australians for Indigenous Constitutional Recognition Ltd.

It was registered on 1 October 2019.

🧵

https://twitter.com/SenatorThorpe/status/1697479210116505860

This coincided with the beginning of the Indigenous Voice Co-Design Process (October 2019).

The process was announced by Hon Ken Wyatt AM - Minister for Indigenous Australians, the Member for Hasluck, and (crucially) a member of Scott Morrison's Cabinet at the time.

5 days is a long time in Liberal politics.

RECAP 🧵:

Liberals claim “new dawn” victory in one-horse Warrandyte race.

Pentecostal Nicole Werner joins party room, replacing right-aligned Ryan Smith.

Deeming suit hits.

KJK suit hits. Battin comes out with his wacky car crash theories. Seeks front pages.

Pesutto forced to respond to rumours it’s a play for the top job.

Party says we won’t pay legal bills for 4 MPs targeted by KJK’s suit, or JP’s legal bills as coffers are dry.