In the long run - we’re all dead.
Do you see the cat?
May 22 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Can someone explain to me like I’m 5 how AI will replace the 30-40% of workers who have fake email jobs? The last time we had a wave of automation in office work (rise of the computer) - we just created a lot of new busywork. How is AI any different?
Automating call center work or secretarial functions seems like the most obvious functions for direct role removal. But that’s based on the cultural view that those jobs are “rote”. Lots of fancy fake email jobs are basically glorified secretarial work (“Chief of Staff”)
Feb 11, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
$ASTL. Whole company trading at under half the value of what other companies (eg $X) are paying for new similar levels of capacity (not a perfectly fair comparison but still…). Other notes from call:
1) Iron ore index on 6 month lag, so major input cost there should negative comp next 2 quarters, offsetting met increases (of $100/t) in CYq2. (IO:coal factor ratio is ~2:1 as I understand it so $50/t lower IO costs balances the met increase which doesn’t kick in til April)
Aug 13, 2021 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
$LEGO $LEGOW Algoma steel has yet to successfully deSPAC, but showed some significant movement this week. Stock up 10% and warrants up ~50% in past few days. Obviously many risks but here's why I still think this is a high E[X] / asymmetric upside bet:
(Note: high volatility / high risk, position accordingly, DYODD). Anyway - since original write-up steel futures have stayed strong and now US MW HRC sitting ~$1.9k with curve bending down to $1.7k by end of year. Meanwhile - curve 3-6 months out keeps pushing higher and higher
Jul 2, 2021 • 18 tweets • 4 min read
Saw some talk about $LEGO and $LEGOW and decided to read into it since it looks like an interesting deep value play.
Legato Merger Corp SPAC ($LEGO) is proposing a transaction with Algamo, a Canadian integrated steel mill operator looking to transition to EAF production
(for ESG reasons – EAF production way less carbon intensive than traditional BOF steel production process) over next few years. No comments on the long term strategy here. The company was restructured out of bankruptcy in 2015 and Legato is now attempting to take the company
Apr 19, 2021 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
1/n In 2007 Buffett ($BRK) bet Ted Seides (Protégé Partners) that the SP500 index would handily outperform any set of selected hedge funds over the next ten years. Over the next 10 years, Seides’ selected funds were up a measly ~22%, while the SP500 had gained ~85%.
2/n Starting in 2011 and the hedge fund’s performance has been even worse relatively (so I suppose one could argue they at least ‘hedged’ a bit in 2008 as the market crash).
Mar 21, 2021 • 25 tweets • 5 min read
$AER has been our second largest position since July (average cost basis: $26/sh) when the likelihood that vaccines under development would be successful was looking increasingly obvious. At the time, we believed AER was trading at such a tremendous discount to intrinsic value
that even worst case scenarios wouldn’t be able to wipe out shareholder’s equity. For example, at $8b of tangible book value (~$60/sh) and $35b of aircraft assets – a write-down of $5b would be required to take the tangible BV below the share price at the time.
