VWAPS - All You Need To Know🧵

One of the most overlooked and misunderstood orderflow indicator out there. Personally VWAP is the base of my trading model and something I use every trading day.

This is a detailed guide on how to trade using VWAPs 1) Intraday VWAPs

You can use VWAPs to build bias for the day, where a particular market session is going to trend and how to effectively position yourself.

Link to original post:

https://x.com/BullyDCrypto/status/1950615153675993473

$WIF - Trading System Examples

Using EMAs, Key Levels and VWAPs Normal trend-based bias forming:

- Rounded bottom structure forms
- Reclaim of EMA200 for H4 or D1, please check what works best for the asset you’re looking at
- Reclaim of EMA200 with volume is usually a sign that we can gap up to EMA100 fairly quickly

Tools you need to WIN in the current environment:

- S/R levels
- EMAs or heuristic bands (choose your pick)
- VWAPs

Nothing else.

Should I drop 10 altcoin charts in the current market to show you examples? 1/10

https://twitter.com/bullydcrypto/status/1926105718702112980

Understanding Open Interest (OI)

Open Interest (OI) represents the total value of open positions on a specific contract. In simple terms, if the OI on btc perps is $1 billion, it means there’s $1 billion worth of long and short positions currently active on that contract.

Every time a new position is opened, it involves a Maker and a Taker, always a 1:1 relationship. In other words, two parties are needed to complete a trade, one who places the order (maker) and one who takes it (taker). For instance, if we decide to market buy one BTC perpetual contract as the taker, the OI for that contract will increase by the value of 1 BTC. How to Read OI

When the price rises and OI increases, it means new long positions are being opened at market.

When the price rises and OI decreases, shorts are closing their positions at market.

When the price falls and OI increases, new short positions are being opened at market.

When the price falls and OI decreases, long positions are being closed.

The larger the timeframe you use, the less precise this data becomes. Lower timeframes are the most reliable for this.

Evolving R: Dynamic Risk Management in trading

This Concept popularised by Trader Dante refers to:

- Dynamic nature of the risk to reward ratio (R) as a trade progresses
- Trade EV gradually changing, not worth price but also with time
- JUST AVOID ROUND-TRIPPING Evolving R refers to the dynamic nature of the risk to reward ratio (R) as a trade progresses. Initially, traders set a fixed R based on their entry, stop loss, and target levels

However, once the trade is active, the potential reward and risk fluctuate with price movements

At trade entry:

You set your stop loss (risk)
You set your target (reward)

Your initial risk to reward ratio (R) is fixed on paper.

In this case risking 3% for 9% target, which equates to 3R

But once the trade moves into your direction, the potential (R) shifts, you're now risking your unrealised gains as well

Market Trends 101

Understanding The market trend + trend reversal is key for any trading idea being formed

Here’s my structured approach for it: 🧵 You can view the market from two different lens:

1. Market moves in a “range-impulse-range” framework
2. Market Moves in Trends and alternates (will use this framework to keep this simple and will cover the nuances later)

NOTE: My assumption to structure this properly is - A trend remains in effect until there is clear evidence of reversal

Trends Have Three Phases:

1. The accumulation phase (books are typically thick here)

2. Public/Retail participation phase (trend gains momentum)

3. Distribution phase (trend is broken and retail is left offside)

$MAVIA Trade Review: Here's How I made $50k shorting an altcoin up 500% in 3 days using:

1. Price Action
2. Volume Profile
3. Open Interest
4. VWAPs
5. Intuition $MAVIA

(before we begin:
I had shared the short idea in my telegram the moment I took the trade. Please join for free trades and key trading discussions. Proof of trade: t.me/CryptoDBully/4…)

is just another overhyped play-to-earn (P2E) cash grab.

No sustainable in-game economy, just another P2E Ponzi

Copying Clash of Clans but without the user base or fun factor (shilled by the biggest VC plants in the space like Kang/Ansem, etc)

Why did it interest me?
- Large perp positions filled gradually and then pumped on illiquid spot markets by (probably) one entity

10 Trading Concepts to Avoid Losing Your Capital

Some basics. Some Advanced concepts.

A thread🧵


1. Risk Management

Risk management is what makes trading profitable. Traders do not go broke because they cannot trade but because they handle their risk irresponsibly. The golden principle is never risking more than 1-2% of the entire capital for one trade (this applies to 99% and there's likely a chance that you're no different). This way, even after running a string of losing trades, you will be left with the enough capital to recoup your losses.

Most expose themselves too much to the market in anticipation of big wins. But being right consistently is better than being occasionally right with grand wins.

The NPOC Liquidity Magnet Strategy. Exploiting Naked Points of Control (NPOCs), areas where liquidity is left unfilled. By identifying these levels, you can capitalize on price’s natural tendency to revisit them. This strategy offers precise entries, targeting areas where the market is most likely to react, providing a powerful edge for intraday trading setups.

A Thread

Intraday Range Trading Strategy Using Volume Profile

- Scalping in Sideways Markets

- Markets Range 70% of the time on the higher timeframes. Here's my framework that helps me profit consistently in these conditions:🧵
Understanding Context Of Market Environment:

- Markets spend 70% of the time in a range and only 30% trending.
- Price moves in bursts (impulses) and then consolidates before the next big move.
- Key is not to get all chopped up and mentally drain yourself your in a ranging market and take full advantage when price starts to trend

Beginner to Advanced Guide to Trading Accumulation and Distribution🧵

The Accumulation and Distribution (A/D) cycle is critical to form swing trading biases

I’m sharing a structured approach to trading these market phases effectively: Why does Accumulation & Distribution Work in Trading

Accumulation and Distribution (A/D) works because they reflect the real actions of institutional traders, who drive market movements. Retail traders chase price action, while smart money engineers liquidity to accumulate or distribute positions efficiently.

Here’s why A/D is a core trading principle:

Markets Move in CyclesPrice doesn’t trend in a straight line.

Typical Market Cycle:

1. Accumulation: Range bound phase after a downtrend/uptrend.

2. Markup: Price breaks out of the range

3. Distribution: Aggressive trending price action to the upside/downside (some people call a distribution range the inverse of an accumulation range and you can just inverse the concepts to fit that bias, I will address the rapid move away from these ranges as distribution)

PS: Call these things whatever you want. Just need to trade it properly and generate trading theses

My favourite Reversal Trading Pattern: Bump and Run Reversal (BARR)🧵

- Catch both bullish/bearish reversals before they occur
- Use Price Action with Volume confluence
- Beginner friendly + Advanced concepts (with examples) One of my favourite indicator that signals a potential trend reversal. It typically occurs after a sharp price increase or decrease, often driven by excessive momentum, followed by a steep uptrend/decline.

Phases of the Bump and Run Pattern:

Lead In Phase: The price moves in a steady uptrend/downtrend with moderate slope.

Bump Phase: A sudden and steep price surge/dump occurs, often fueled by manipulation, causing the trendline to become unsustainable.

Run Phase: The price breaks the trendline and reverses downward/upward, leading to a sharp incline/decline.

Tutorial: How to Draw Levels and How to trade them?💯

Covering:
- Drawing levels across multiple timeframes
- Fake breakouts
- Sweeps/SFPs at important levels
- Levels as zones 1) Understanding Support And Resistance

A support zone indicates a price point where the buying pressure is more than the selling pressure

A resistance zone indicates a price point where the selling pressure is more than the buying pressure,

A good support and resistance level should ideally be on higher time frames and should have a few touches validating this level, it should be easily visible from the naked eye and not something you would have to observe deeply to locate it on your charts.

HOW TO MAKE MONEY USING FIBONACCI LEVELS🧵

Beginner friendly + Advanced Strategies Covering:
- How to find swing points
- Best settings for Fib Retracement Tools
- Profitable Strategies With Proper Risk Management
How to find swing points?

Before going into intricacies let's look at the basics and the work you need to do before using the fib tool

- Identifying the most recent swing high and swing low

- A swing high (SH) is where price forms a reasonable high (a higher than average up move on the timeframe you're trading) before making a swing low

- A swing low (SL) is where price forms a reasonable low (after a higher than average down move on the timeframe you're trading) before making a swing high

- These places form the "anchor" points for your Fibonacci Retracement Tool

How To Actually Trade $ETH Profitably (A Thread🧵)

- Mini market cycles for BTC->Alts->ETH
- Dump buying
- Which assets to buy, when and how to rotate - ETH often shows strength during illiquid periods, attracting traders before a sudden liquidation event where it drops 20-30% as market makers pull bids

- A sharp but illiquid recovery follows, with altcoins outperforming while ETH lags

- Traders then rotate profits into ETH, leading to a final OI flush with a double bottom or wick fill. Understanding this cycle helps traders minimize risk and maximize gains

1. Illiquid period when ETH is strongest coin + ETHBTC strong green daily candle for 3-4 days

2. ⁠Entire market bleeds down while ETH is strong and every mini bounce and it starts to outperform for a short while

3. ⁠OI is pretty high and looking at “relative strength” people keep aping into ETH

$BTC Pre-FOMC (Jan) Outlook 🧵

Price Action: Two parallels that I can draw parallels from right now are

1. Feb 2024 - Pump on Yearly Open -> Dump under it and Daily Trend -> Rally higher into February onwards -> Liquidity conditions pump us higher with SPX rally
2. April 2024 - Test Daily Trend but speed of recovery gets slower and slower (even with constant spot TWAPs from ETFs, right now it's Saylor as well)

If we think about it, both scenarios had a lot of parallels just that German govt selling news and a bunch of SPX shakeouts and subsequent crypto relative weakness fucked us up

While I remain bullish crypto for now, we can't forget the April scenario given how alts have been terribly going on the euthanasia rollercoaster Now the immediate playbook:

Core Focus Areas:
- Rate Cut Timing: Markets are not expecting an immediate cut but are watching for signals on June/July rate cuts

- Market Pricing: Fed Funds futures imply ~44bps of cuts for 2025, meaning traders will react sharply to any deviation

- Key Macro Question: How will the Fed frame Trump’s tariffs and immigration policies? These could be inflationary, forcing the Fed to stay restrictive longer

Important background information:
- Market had a massive shock at the last FOMC which is where I started calling for a sub-$90k correction while BTC was at ATHs where the Fed was the most hawkish since rate cutting began last year (we got the 89k pullback)
- Since then we've gone on to slowly price in fewer and fewer rate cuts, however, SPX has hit an ATH and despite the deep seek FUD shakeout the "speed of recovery" has been intense for Tradfi while not so much for crypto
- This is exactly what happened in April FYI in terms of correlation being maintained but other factors being at play

Swing Failure Pattern (SFP) - The Price Action pattern that helped me get to Seven Figures as a scalper

Covered:
- How to spot it
- When to use it
- When to not use it (avoid over trading sweeps)

Let's Start:🧵 What is A swing failure pattern (SFP)?
Ans - It is a Reversal trading strategy. It's like the market's way of faking you out before making its real move. Let's dive deep and decode this pattern

In an up trend when price fails to close above a swing high and in a downtrend when price fails to close below a swing low, usually this results in a move towards the opposite direction

Capital Preservation And Risk Management🧵

"2025 is the year when things go parabolic"
- While you're sold the idea that 80% of gains are made in the final 20% of the bull market; this is when it's most important to preserve your capital

Covered:
- Risk Management
- Trading Part-Time
- Stop Loss types and implementation
- Position Sizing for spot vs perps
- Personal Lessons How to preserve profits and increase your account size

Step 1) Make your goals based on available capital and time

Different Capital needs different Strategies:
- Young & Broke- Hunt airdrops, make connections, research memes.
- Some Capital-Scalp and Swing Invest.
- Enough Capital- Automate, Outsource, Swing Trade and Chill.
- Excessive Capital - Buy Spot, Study the Cycle and forget until major headlines on the news

1. Decide the time you can spend on trading.
2. Decide Financial Goals.
3. Be Shameless, Maximise Your investing Capital.
4. Stay away from advices of people who didn't make it by investing but by selling Dreams.
5. Different Capital needs different strategy.

Example of simple working strategy: Buy in Demand Orderblocks. Example attached

Altcoin Setups 🧵

Covered:
- Tickers on my watchlist
- Levels of interest
- When to long what, when to TP and how to manage the positions $ETH
- Detailed update in the previous tweet (keeping it simple here)
- It missed my 3250 levels to long

- now I'm looking to scale into position on LTF dips or on breakout from this level. OI increasing rapidly so I TPed a bit of my 3500 long at 3580 and ready to bid lower

$BTC Nasty Rejection From $100k again🧵

Past trade summary:
- Short $103k to $95k
- Long $95k to $100k again

Video predictions on point so far after we failed to accept above AVWAP from ATH and QVWAP band

Back at Weekly Open with some decent plunge protection rn

https://twitter.com/BullyDCrypto/status/1871608627263574211

What's next?

- $100k volume gap respected and a high volume dump into Weekly Open + VaL of the range
- $50m in market short positions added under $97k, reversal from Weekly Open would squeeze them and we've set the stage for a LTF reversal
- Expecting bounces to be temporary for now as spot selling has continued + no spot bid due to corporate blackout today before 2 more days of US being closed should resolve in lower prices
- Waiting for reaction at 97k (either these shorts close out and send us to 99k rather quickly or spot selling on US open continues {based on Binance spot reactions} and we get sub 93k today)

Bull Market Trading Tools/Strategies

- During ranging environments, it's important to look at order flow/fundamentals on alts and aggr

Here are 3 basic Price Action methods to nail this market without getting analysis paralysis:🧵 The Three Drive Pattern
A simple pattern that signals a potential market reversal. It consists of three consecutive price taps or drives in the same direction, each separated by two corrective waves.
Bullish Case: in a downward trending market once price comes in to the trendline three times and breaks the overall bearish structure, this indicates a clear momentum shift from bearish to bullish market sentiment
Bearish Case: in a upward trending market once price comes in to the trendline three times and breaks the overall bullish structure, resulting in a move lower/shift from the current market trend

How to increase probability?
Ans- look for the second and third drive to have lower volume than the first.

Note: In crypto everything works, from trendlines to fibonaccis to literally a coin toss, as long as you manage your risk and understand the overall trend, you'll come out with money every time.