Teams always talk about wanting to draft an "impact" player with their pick, especially the high ones.

Impact star players mostly come from two small groups.

There's 5 ways I've started grouping players in terms of their normalized production within their draft year.

Here's a look at the forwards...

Group 1, a very small elite group, is the most likely to make the NHL (76%) as well as become a star (43%).

Group 2 is a larger but still rather small group where still 60% turn into NHLers and 20% turn into stars.

Group 3 is a large group of above average producers. 35% of them make the NHL and 5% turn into stars.

Group 4 is largely a younger low producing DY group. 18% make the NHL and ~0.5% turn into stars.

Group 5 is mostly low producing older prospects. 16% make the NHL and almost none turn into stars. This is a huge group that makes up nearly 50% of forwards drafted every year.

As to what's in the groups specifically. There's a lot of iterations for each group. As well, as of right now I don't fully want to reveal what's in each group (once it's on the line it's on the line forever!). So for now I'll just keep that to myself. Usually you follow the math and the probabilities and you win. And I'm certain that applies here as well. If teams draft more from groups 1, 2 and 3 they'll get more draft wins over the long run.

I liken it all to Blackjack.

You could win starting with a 12 (Group 3), a 6-8 (Group 4) or 5 or less (Group 5). You could hit and get your cards up close to 21. The dealer could bust. But most likely... you're losing. If I willingly had the choice I would much rather start with a 19-21 (Group 1) or 17-18 (Group 2) rather than a low number. Nearly 50% of the time, often with many "better cards" still available, teams choose to start the game with a 5 or less.

Dallas' amateur scouting is amazing. No question.

But there is something else very telling about their picks that have hit of recent. Something that teams should key in on if they're going to replicate the 'Dallas Model'

(thread)

https://twitter.com/HabsLinks/status/1785148872576106708

Roope Hintz - 49th Overall in 2015

Hintz showed incredibly well in his D-1 year (mid-1st round caliber equivalency). Regressed a bit back in his DY, but also switched to the pro Liiga league. He worked out better than you could have ever expected from this type of archetype but overall great value as a mid-2nd round pick.

It's quite something that the Rangers have managed to rebuild into a playoff team when their 1st OV, 2nd OV, 7th OV and 9th OV picks from the past 5 years didn't really work out and they got lit on fire with the Buchnevich trade. Any other team, that doesn't attract 90% of all free agents, would have been toast.

Drafted from 2000 to 2016, only 18 forwards drafted outside the 1st round have turned into stars in the NHL (200+ games, 0.7+ points-per-game). 18 out of roughly 1,800 players drafted in those rounds (1%). Drafting a star outside of the 1st round is akin to winning a small lottery. If your team has done so recently, cherish it. It might not happen again for decades.

After a couple days of digesting things, I have some thoughts about Johnny Gaudreau (as a fan).

I think we're losing our way with the hate.

I think Johnny had very relatable and good reasons for leaving.

I just don't think he can put them into words for us all. I've listened to the press conferences and read everything I could find about the situation.

The Anaheim Ducks had a very strong 2021 draft. They added tons of value to their prospect pool and significantly overshot their draft slot.

Here's a thread explaining what they drafted and the significance...

#FlyTogether The Ducks had the 3rd overall pick, took a gamble and selected Mason McTavish. They gambled in the sense that McTavish didn't really play in his draft year (the OHL got wiped out) and it was such a high pick. There's a bit of risk there with so much unknown.

NHL TEAM PROSPECT POOL STRENGTH RANKINGS (JULY 2021 - POST DRAFT) 1. Los Angeles Kings

The Kings already had the best prospect system in the NHL and they added to it with Brandt Clarke, one of the very best prospects in the 2021 draft. All the system needs is an elite goalie prospect. It's loaded everywhere else.