Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Ciarán Murray Profile picture
Ciarán Murray
@C1aranMurray
Founder of https://t.co/Qh8q5GRG6d. Building another decentralised media project in stealth. 🦇🔊 ciarán.eth
May 17, 2021 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
1/ Bayesian reasoning applied to crypto - A Thread

There are various theories that have been devised to try and understand crypto's future. These include the halving cycle, the stock-to-flow model, and various wave theories among other things. 2/ The reality is that there is little data to support any of these theses. They’re either beset by confounding factors (eg S2F) or involve tiny samples (eg halving theory).