People like Bud will gladly campaign to ruin a vessel for tens of thousands of kids who have very little value in the NIL market as an athlete, but have great need for an education and being molded by men who have 30 years of experience in doing so.
Feb 22 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
When you want real bad to call someone a racist, but also don't know the facts 🧵
1. College isn't professional. It is its own thing, bound by Title IX legislation and a lack of unified bargaining
2. No professional sport operates the way the current NIL + free transfers.
Where is the concern for the player in all this? Where is the concern that we won't EVER crown the actual best champion because teams will be nowhere near 100%?
Is this what we want CFB to be? The team with the easiest schedule who happens to get injury luck is the "best"
Feb 11 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Why the Super Bowl isn't filled with five-star recruits, a 🧵
Simply put, it's a matter of volume. Let's start with this point: there are only ~32 five-star recruits per HS class. That's only 1 per NFL team per year. As 40% won't pan out, each team can only sign 2-3 per 5 years.
This highlights that there are are way, way more athletes as you drop down each recruiting tier.
It increases about 10x each jump, so 33 five stars, 330 four stars, 3000 three stars, 10,000 two stars.
If all were equal, you'd have 100 former 3 star players for every 5 star.
Dec 31, 2023 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
While I appreciate Kirby's comments, there aren't any good solutions.
Paying players to play bowls or tying NIL to a full season's participation is only valuable to players who weren't opting out anyway.
1st day players aren't risking $$$ for $
There's a bigger issue.
🧵
For a decade, there has been a huge push from sports media and a large portion of CFB fans to devalue anything but the playoffs.
Journalists, who are largely pro-sports focused, push for massive change with zero concern for unintended consequences.
Dec 29, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Contextualizing stats is important. Both Washington and Texas are thought to have bad pass defenses and it will be their weakness in the Sugar Bowl.
Surface level:
Washington Total Pass Defense Rank: 118th
Texas Total Pass Defense Rank: 84th
Yikes. But wait! 🧵
Let's dig into this a little bit:
When adjusted for opponent, things look better:
Washington Relative Performance Total Pass D: 76th
Texas RP Total Pass D: 56th
But there's more!
Dec 26, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
From a team analysis standpoint (vs Michigan), way too much is made of Alabama's near-loss to Auburn. 1) Auburn is favored over Maryland, they're dead even in FPI and FEI, and Maryland-Michigan was very close. 2) Bama outgained AU by 115 yards. 3) The NMSU loss was an outlier.🧵
If you want to talk deservedness for the playoff, that's one thing, but Alabama's issues with Auburn weren't the sort of thing that flags a terrible team. 1) Bama was hurt on big plays, not snap-to-snap.
2)That Auburn team had also handed Arkansas its worse loss 2 weeks prior.
Dec 24, 2023 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
Basic transfer portal logic in CFB: 1) It does not get more players drafted 2) It does slightly change *who* gets drafted 3) It does not create more scholarship opportunities 4) It does shift HS scholarships more to small schools (transfers take P5 slots and open G5 ones) 🧵
Saying "the transfer portal is good for the players" is an oversimplification. It is good for players who transfer to a bigger school and get more NIL money and a higher draft slot. But it's equally bad for players you don't know who they replaced. Is that, overall, "good"?
Dec 22, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
The argument that FSU is estopped from even challenging the GOR because they agreed not to take any action against it is really dubious. "You agreed not to damage the GOR so we decide everything" is obviously weird logic. That said, I don't know how FSU wins this.
(I am a lawyer)
Taking the argument to its conclusion, the ACC is arguing that because FSU agreed not to damage the GOR, then FSU can't bring a suit about whether the agreement itself is valid. Covenants not to sue are a thing, but you can always challenge the *covenant* itself.
Dec 21, 2023 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
Nobody wants to say it out loud, but here's the truth about the CFP rankings 🧵
Oregon/FSU were overrated for different reasons heading into champ weekend
You either pay your taxes as you go or all at once, but you have to pay. The committee failed to live by this truism
First, Oregon:
Bama, Texas, and Ohio St all had better resumes than Oregon. More ranked wins, same number of losses, all with tougher schedules.
But dropping Oregon would ruffle feathers, especially among those who clung to early-season narratives about P12 strength.
Dec 3, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
This is the first year since 2014 I feel someone will get screwed out of a CFP slot and have a legitimate beef.
Texas, Alabama, or FSU not making it isn't fair.
Let's look at some others 🧵
2015 Ohio St - Lost to Mich St but Mich St was without their starting QB.
2016 Penn St - Won the conference but lost two games, including one to an unranked team. 39 point loss to Michigan
2017 - Ohio State two losses
2018 - UGA left out. 2 losses, including a brutal close game to Alabama in the SECCG. Oklahoma wasn't better imo but conf champ 1 loss
Nov 27, 2023 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
There's a subtle, but growing problem in college football with how games involving good teams are called by the refs.
Here are some notable teams ranked by OPPONENT penalties:
🧵
This completely refutes the long-standing notion that "Alabama/Ohio State/Georgia" gets all the calls
What this means is, a number of the best teams are rarely seeing opponents penalized.
This is either subconscious or intentional, but either way, it's unfair.
Nov 26, 2023 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Pretty shocked at the CBS broadcast during the Iron Bowl yesterday going to their rules expert and getting mostly silence on a really interesting penalty scenario🧵
The reason it was shocking is that the entire point of having a rules expert is to explain obscure situations like this, not to agree with what the hosts or fans already see or know about targeting or pass interference
Here we have Alabama (correctly) flagged for being offside
Oct 22, 2023 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Really frustrating to see Acho, a constant NIL cheerleader, celebrate the idea of a guy taking millions from businesses and not trying to give them value for their money.
Screw those who took care of him amirite?
Also, statistical reasons why Caleb needs to play for Caleb: 🧵
Great numbers. But remember, he was on a title contender in a weak league.
Jul 1, 2023 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
ESPN has a pretty dire problem problem.
They're acknowledging the problem, and going about fixing it in a completely wrong way.
Settle in, grab a coffee, and let's discuss the 3 biggest things that led to ESPN's downfall and how they're screwing up again
Super long🧵
In its golden era, ESPN employed talking heads and scripted programming like SportsCenter because:
They had really good people on air.
But more importantly, they had a near monopoly on the information and distribution.
What happened?
May 23, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
We've been viewed as alarmists, but (as with most of our "hot" takes) we weren't wrong. *Most* ADs operate at a deficit. If the big schools consolidate, half of college football can't financially survive in their current form. 1/x
Taken a step further, realize that if WSU stops playing major CFB, that's less eyeballs, and TV revenue as a whole will go down. If you're a WSU or Georgia Tech fan, and you're left out, will you still watch Washington and Georgia? There's a domino effect here people ignore. 2/x
May 20, 2023 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Since I'm catching slander for my reasonable stance on Texas A&M's #1 class, a thread:
Texas A&M's #1 class coincided with the first year of NIL
Texas A&M is the only team in the playoff era to sign a #1 class having never made the playoffs.
The average record of a team preceding a #1 class ranking is 13-1. Texas A&M's was 8-4.
A&M fans suggest the 2022 class was built on the 2020 season. But two seasons prior to UGA's first #1 in 2018, they went 8-5. They made the playoffs the year before signing the top class
Oct 14, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
How much has college football shifted to talented offenses?
- In 2011, 5 of the top 10 defenses were in the SEC.
-- The best G5 defense was #10.
- Right now, only 2 of the top 25 defenses are in the SEC.
-- 4 of the top 10 defenses are G5s.
Everything in football is relative. As talent has shifted to the offensive side of the ball (starting in high school), high-talent conferences have shifted to more yards and points. As offensive stats go up, defensive stats necessarily go down.
