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Sep 6 • 26 tweets • 8 min read
The House settlement in college football is failing, a 🧵
In short, it appears that the judge seems to have seen the settlement for what it likely was: an end-around to get legal pay-for-play without going through Congress.
As many of you know, my day job is being a senior partner in a major IP law firm. I'm not an antitrust guy, and I don't do agency/sports law, so it gives me a different perspective (of which there are many).
Also, I do have to say these opinions are my own, not those of my firm or clients.
May 28 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
The college football super conference era + expanded playoffs will mean fewer, good out of conference games.
B12 champion is basically going to play what would have been a G5 schedule a few years ago, and B10/SEC schedules get harder. Why on earth would they add more Ls OOC?
Everyone's goal will be to have as clean of a record as possible to be in that top 10-12 ranked range. The voters and committee have made it clear that clean records and destroying bad teams is more important that even big wins (see Oregon vs Texas ranking all year last year)
May 22 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Can't wait to read about how University of Michigan athletic dept files bankruptcy because RedBird Capital jacked up the rent payments on the Big House in 15 years.
I read the comments from the PE guys involved and still don't see the value add, at all.
All I see are vultures and jackals who have no understanding of what makes CFB great that will gladly profit in the short term and move on to the next thing after they've killed it.
May 17 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
I hire and direct software engineers and have 20 years of experience. The leetcode fad is just the newest form of extreme nerd club gatekeeping that distills decades of experience down to whether or not you can live-code math trick questions.
The result is a very strong core of early career engineers who are still fresh on academic stuff or have time to spend six months grinding test questions and can do them live from memory.
Mar 13 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Bud knows this is an incredibly lame false equivalency.
Saban didn't buy a million dollar home with his first coaching job. He probably got room/board and a ~$15,000ish stipend. Sound familiar?
People like Bud will gladly campaign to ruin a vessel for tens of thousands of kids who have very little value in the NIL market as an athlete, but have great need for an education and being molded by men who have 30 years of experience in doing so.
Feb 22 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
When you want real bad to call someone a racist, but also don't know the facts 🧵
1. College isn't professional. It is its own thing, bound by Title IX legislation and a lack of unified bargaining
2. No professional sport operates the way the current NIL + free transfers.
Where is the concern for the player in all this? Where is the concern that we won't EVER crown the actual best champion because teams will be nowhere near 100%?
Is this what we want CFB to be? The team with the easiest schedule who happens to get injury luck is the "best"
Feb 11 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Why the Super Bowl isn't filled with five-star recruits, a 🧵
Simply put, it's a matter of volume. Let's start with this point: there are only ~32 five-star recruits per HS class. That's only 1 per NFL team per year. As 40% won't pan out, each team can only sign 2-3 per 5 years.
This highlights that there are are way, way more athletes as you drop down each recruiting tier.
It increases about 10x each jump, so 33 five stars, 330 four stars, 3000 three stars, 10,000 two stars.
If all were equal, you'd have 100 former 3 star players for every 5 star.
Dec 31, 2023 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
While I appreciate Kirby's comments, there aren't any good solutions.
Paying players to play bowls or tying NIL to a full season's participation is only valuable to players who weren't opting out anyway.
1st day players aren't risking $$$ for $
There's a bigger issue.
🧵
For a decade, there has been a huge push from sports media and a large portion of CFB fans to devalue anything but the playoffs.
Journalists, who are largely pro-sports focused, push for massive change with zero concern for unintended consequences.
Dec 29, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Contextualizing stats is important. Both Washington and Texas are thought to have bad pass defenses and it will be their weakness in the Sugar Bowl.
Surface level:
Washington Total Pass Defense Rank: 118th
Texas Total Pass Defense Rank: 84th
Yikes. But wait! 🧵
Let's dig into this a little bit:
When adjusted for opponent, things look better:
Washington Relative Performance Total Pass D: 76th
Texas RP Total Pass D: 56th
But there's more!
Dec 26, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
From a team analysis standpoint (vs Michigan), way too much is made of Alabama's near-loss to Auburn. 1) Auburn is favored over Maryland, they're dead even in FPI and FEI, and Maryland-Michigan was very close. 2) Bama outgained AU by 115 yards. 3) The NMSU loss was an outlier.🧵
If you want to talk deservedness for the playoff, that's one thing, but Alabama's issues with Auburn weren't the sort of thing that flags a terrible team. 1) Bama was hurt on big plays, not snap-to-snap.
2)That Auburn team had also handed Arkansas its worse loss 2 weeks prior.
Dec 24, 2023 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
Basic transfer portal logic in CFB: 1) It does not get more players drafted 2) It does slightly change *who* gets drafted 3) It does not create more scholarship opportunities 4) It does shift HS scholarships more to small schools (transfers take P5 slots and open G5 ones) 🧵
Saying "the transfer portal is good for the players" is an oversimplification. It is good for players who transfer to a bigger school and get more NIL money and a higher draft slot. But it's equally bad for players you don't know who they replaced. Is that, overall, "good"?
Dec 22, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
The argument that FSU is estopped from even challenging the GOR because they agreed not to take any action against it is really dubious. "You agreed not to damage the GOR so we decide everything" is obviously weird logic. That said, I don't know how FSU wins this.
(I am a lawyer)
Taking the argument to its conclusion, the ACC is arguing that because FSU agreed not to damage the GOR, then FSU can't bring a suit about whether the agreement itself is valid. Covenants not to sue are a thing, but you can always challenge the *covenant* itself.
Dec 21, 2023 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
Nobody wants to say it out loud, but here's the truth about the CFP rankings 🧵
Oregon/FSU were overrated for different reasons heading into champ weekend
You either pay your taxes as you go or all at once, but you have to pay. The committee failed to live by this truism
First, Oregon:
Bama, Texas, and Ohio St all had better resumes than Oregon. More ranked wins, same number of losses, all with tougher schedules.
But dropping Oregon would ruffle feathers, especially among those who clung to early-season narratives about P12 strength.
Dec 3, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
This is the first year since 2014 I feel someone will get screwed out of a CFP slot and have a legitimate beef.
Texas, Alabama, or FSU not making it isn't fair.
Let's look at some others 🧵
2015 Ohio St - Lost to Mich St but Mich St was without their starting QB.
2016 Penn St - Won the conference but lost two games, including one to an unranked team. 39 point loss to Michigan
2017 - Ohio State two losses
2018 - UGA left out. 2 losses, including a brutal close game to Alabama in the SECCG. Oklahoma wasn't better imo but conf champ 1 loss
Nov 27, 2023 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
There's a subtle, but growing problem in college football with how games involving good teams are called by the refs.
Here are some notable teams ranked by OPPONENT penalties:
🧵
This completely refutes the long-standing notion that "Alabama/Ohio State/Georgia" gets all the calls
What this means is, a number of the best teams are rarely seeing opponents penalized.
This is either subconscious or intentional, but either way, it's unfair.
Nov 26, 2023 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Pretty shocked at the CBS broadcast during the Iron Bowl yesterday going to their rules expert and getting mostly silence on a really interesting penalty scenario🧵
The reason it was shocking is that the entire point of having a rules expert is to explain obscure situations like this, not to agree with what the hosts or fans already see or know about targeting or pass interference
Here we have Alabama (correctly) flagged for being offside
Oct 22, 2023 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Really frustrating to see Acho, a constant NIL cheerleader, celebrate the idea of a guy taking millions from businesses and not trying to give them value for their money.
Screw those who took care of him amirite?
Also, statistical reasons why Caleb needs to play for Caleb: 🧵
