Joumanna Bercetche 🇱🇧 Profile picture
@CNBCi 📺 co-anchor of Street Signs M-F 9am BST, occasionally sarcastic 🤷🏻‍♀️. Lebanese/ British. Sprinkle of Argentine. @aub_lebanon alumna
JORGE CELIO Profile picture Philippe Bustros Profile picture 2 added to My Authors
Dec 31, 2019 22 tweets 3 min read
So here it is: my #Odeto2019 - Enjoy (it's long) !

'Twas the Night before Xmas
Stock markets at record highs
Tech sector breaking into new territory
Brushing off trade war & recession cries But what a year 2019 was,
Let's rewind back to last December
The world was looking a little different
One last hike the Fed would rather not remember
Sep 12, 2019 4 tweets 1 min read
How did ECB over-deliver on & why do banks trade so weak? (thread)
1- Rate cut 10bps (consensus)
2- 2 Tier remuneration system for reserves (details later. In Switzerland it's 20x min reserves but they can't replicate that in Europe without pushing up overnight rate too much) 3- OPEN ENDED QE of EUR20bn as of Nov 1(smaller monthly amount but the open-endedness is a surprise esp given pushback from the hawks)

4- Better rates for TLTRO with sliding scale starting at refi rate and as low as deposit rate if banks lend. This is similar to UK FLS scheme
Sep 10, 2019 12 tweets 4 min read
#ECB thread

Here's what analysts are expecting:
1) Majority expect 10bps rate cut to -50bps (minority 20bps cut)
2) Tiering
3) Restart of Asset Purchases : sov +corp bonds of EUR 30bn x 12 months (risk of LESS given recent hawkish commentary)
4) Enhanced Fwd Guidance 1) rate cuts

The interest rate mkt is expecting 50% probability of a 20bp cut (or 15bps priced in for Sep) and another ~10bps in December, troughs at 34bps cuts next summer

Rate cut to 1/ target EUR & 2/ extra kicker for TLRO3 which starts in Sep 3/ stimulate credit demand
Aug 7, 2019 5 tweets 1 min read
Eurozone Banks (thread): been covering earnings season again; a few takeaways:

Let’s start with positives:
1- Banks much better capitalized & have built up much bigger liquidity buffers in the last few yrs
2- There has been progress on cost cutting but..

Now for the negatives: Negatives:
1- You can’t cut ad finitum without compromising on core businesses. Cost / Income ratios still too high namely because revenues aren’t growing enough/ at all in some cases
2- Low / negative interest rates eat away at margins (even if volumes go up)
3- Too.Many.Banks
Jul 23, 2019 9 tweets 4 min read
Mega #ECB thread- bear w me:)

Thursday’s mtg is shaping up to be an extremely important one

Most analysts expect #Draghi to tilt further dovish & indicate a “package of measures” for Sep but not act YET
Why wait? 1/ Fed first 2/ New projections in Sep 3/ Hv to agree on package Reminder: what are ECB’s tools? ⚒:
- forward guidance (currently calendar based)
- rate cuts
- QE (sovereign, agencies, corporates)* I’ll come back to this point
- bond re-investments (ppl often forget this one)