$TSLA Q1 2024 deliveries and inventory in Europe:

Focus on Model 3 Highland, and how the situation differs strongly from one country to the other.

The local inventory (cars labeled as "available for immediate delivery") shows a weak situation in some countries.

1/11 Looking at the tesla-info source, one might have the impression that Model 3 Highland inventory is building up, and interpret that as a sign of weakness.

But tesla-info does not distinguish between "in transit" and local inventory.

Also, 600 cars is not a lot.

2/11

$TSLA Q4 European deliveries and inventory:

🚨 Unsold Model 3 Highland increasing and spreading to more countries (6) 🚨

🚨 Model 3 Highland discounted as "demo model" 🚨

🧵⬇️ Best way to detect an increase in inventory is

tesla-info. com:

Some 86 Model 3 got added to European inventory overnight from Friday 08 DEC to Saturday 09 DEC

(btw sorry for not feeding your $TSLAQ thirst yesterday afternoon already)

Today's HandelsBlatt article about $TSLA whistleblower Lukasz Krupski is too important to just leave it up to the perseverance of each $TSLAQ member to find it.

So here is a good-enough English translation of the entire text,

17 screenshots:

1-4:





$TSLA HandelsBlatt article

English translation, pages

5 - 8:

This satirical @FT article, Alphaville section, by Bryce Elder, is a succulent roast of Adam Jonas' latest $TSLA "analysis", and is too good to stay behind a paywall.

So I offer a gift link that can be opened 3 times.

on.ft.com/3PzqSXO I am ready to use my 10 monthly gift links on this article.

But a second link to the same article has the same URL, so multiple links for one and same article may not work.

Someone let me know if above link did not work, and this one did:

on.ft.com/3PzqSXO

$TSLA European inventory: major update.

TL/DR: the situation is demonstrably worsening, but you have to look beyond the inventory trackers to see it.

This 🧵 uses the UK and the Model S / X as harbingers of a more general deterioration. Interpreting the data is not so straightforward.

The popular inventory trackers offer only a snapshot (left pic).

We can see visible inventory go up, but that does not say anything about deliveries.

EU-EVS seems to indicate Q2 deliveries are even ahead of Q1 (right pic)!

$TSLA inventory situation update,

Case study: Model X in the US

The inventory made a "step exponential" two nights ago. Source: tesla-info. com, corroborated by EV-CPO and Tesla US site.

What to make of this? EV-CPO data informs us that $TSLA decided to show hundreds of cars that it had kept hidden until two days ago.

$TSLA kept producing Model X standard and PLAID versions until at least last Monday: see "Build date".

Note also that there is no attempt to sell EAP, let alone FSD.

$TSLA inventory problems in Europe - case study France.

"How to knock another 3% off the prices as the two last prices did not work."

It is easy actually:

Put a couple of hundred km on odomoter of Q4 2022 inventory and move them from "new" inventory to "used" inventory. This is how it looks like over on Tesla .com France.

It does not look like a discount at first sight, as $TSLA added EAP, which is "valued" at 3'800 € in France.

ALL of these Q4 2022 cars have EAP added to them, same practice as previous quarters btw.

Bodyguards seem to last longer around Musk than his CFOs or lawyers.

The one in blue shirt on the right has been driving Musk around at least since January 2019.

How do I know that?

https://twitter.com/heathat/status/1619044840548843537

In January 2019 Raven Vanderaeve, prominent $TSLAQ warrior who one day disappeared without saying goodbye, asked me for help with a picture of Musk visiting Zeebrugge, then touted as the beachhead for $TSLA invasion to annihilate European legacy carmakers.

$TSLA European Q1 2023 inventory update.

TLDR: it is worse than you think!

The price cuts work, but only for the cheapest Model 3 and Model Y trims.

The devil is in the detail: We have different sources to get a view on the overall inventory situation.

EV-CPO allows to filter out the 2022 builds, and only consider those builds shipped for potential delivery during Q1 2023.

At first sight it looks like the price cuts are working for Model Y:

🚨🚨 $TSLA Q4 not sold out in Europe !!! 🚨🚨

Overnight, about 30 model Y, built in China between 24 and 27 September 2022, appeared on Tesla France.

The build dates suggest the cars are currently on one of several boats carrying $TSLA cars from China to Europe. Portugal also shows one model Y with same recent build date,

as well as one model 3 built on 26 September in China.

$TSLA has been constrained by demand in Europe since Q1 2022 at least. Now probably in China also.

This will make it a lot harder for @TroyTeslike to keep up his accuracy. He will have to make far more drastic adjustments towards each end of the Q.

A dedicated 🧵. Disclaimer: I pay for @TroyTeslike content on Patreon.

I find it good value for money and highly recommend his work to both $TSLA bulls and $TSLAQ folks.

In this 🧵 I only use his work published on twitter.

$TSLA bulls are happily retweeting Troy's latest update on "backlog".

The problem is that delivery wait times shown on Tesla's website are not in any way indicative of order backlog.

There never was a backlog of >400k over the last 2 years.

small 🧵:

https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike/status/1581090369512812544

Here is some proof for Europe that delivery time is not indicative of backlog:

https://twitter.com/CallerNaked/status/1478528701381885954?s=20

https://twitter.com/CallerNaked/status/1507300572793298963?s=20

https://twitter.com/CallerNaked/status/1530221672975974400?s=20

$TSLA Q4 🇪🇺 delivery update,

integrating EM's "leaked internal mail".

TL/DR: Elon is gaslighting bulls and bears alike, winning time to dump more shares in Q1 2022 and perhaps early Q2 2022.

Report from inside EM's mind (putting on TC's mantle for just a short while): $TSLAQ took EM's mail to mean that Q4 will fall short of prior estimates.

That is too direct a conclusion. I am quite sure that Q4 will beat Q3 in Europe, which is most visible.

Q: Why "start reducing the size of the wave ifo steadier and more efficient deliveries" only now?

$TSLA Q4 delivery cycle in 🇪🇺 :

Concrete signs of weak demand, thread with proof:

1. Overnight $TSLA "unhid" about 12 M3 LR from Q3 and Q2.

No miles, so no test-drive.
Yet offered as "demo" at significant discount.

5% off this beauty in the Netherlands, sitting in Tilburg: 2. Ireland:

The first boat #DonPasquale arrived 10-18, perhaps too late for Q4 cars to reach Ireland.

So most likely the *single* car that $TSLA sold in Ireland for all of October (a M3) must have been a spillover from arrivals in Q3, during which $TSLA sold 168 M3 (0 MY).

Very weak OCT21 car sales out of 🇨🇭.

Part shortages are still to blame.

OEM are clearly allocating scarce parts with priority to BEV, PHEV and MHEV, allowing those to maintain 50% of the market.

This is without help from $TSLA which registered only 58 cars for the month. $TSLA OCT21 sales were also very weak in other 🇪🇺 for which data is already available (Spain, Netherlands, Norway, Finland, Ireland, Sweden).

The bulk of 2 ship-loads of $TSLA that arrived in OCT21 should show up in NOV21.

Raw $TSLA market share data for 🇨🇭:

What is Troy trying to achieve here?
Walk back expectations in case Q4 underwhelms?

This whole "dampen the wave" is starting to sound very suspicious...

Let's look at some cold hard facts out of Europe.

Thread:

https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike/status/1451721573396791296

Boats for Q4 left SHG a full 20 days earlier than previous quarters.

And the trip took less long, so that the first 3 boats for Q4 arrived a full 26-29 days *earlier* than first boats for Q3!

The $TSLA European Q3 deliveries look set to prove one of the main $TSLAQ bear arguments, making the record-setting absolute deliveries irrelevant:

💠Q3 reveals the cannibalization of M3 by MY.
💠New model pipeline is now effectively empty.

A lethal combination! Norway alone is soaking up 1/3rd of the 15k MY that @TroyTeslike estimates for all of Europe for Q3.

This can be attributed to pent-up orders that were supposed to be gradually filled from Brandenburg factory. So this won't be repeated in Q4.

But Norway is always special case.

So where are we again in the $TSLA European Q3 delivery cycle?

Why, we are at the point where "in transit" inventory has become local, but not all those local cars have been matched to order yet. So close to end of quarter...

Time to get out the *** DISCOUNTS !!! *** These M3 LR for Swiss market are now labeled as "demonstration model" even though they have no miles on them.

The LR MIC was already 2000 CHF cheaper due to Chinese battery and slightly lower range.

Now the discount is almost 4000 CHF or over 7%!

$TSLA Q1 deliveries in 🇪🇺:

Most data points towards "ok" quarter:
🔹Ship tracker
🔹Deliveries trackers by country
🔹National $TSLA sites
🔹my own #SGF reports

But this "ok" quarter seems to come at a cost of unsustainable one-offs. Not to mention

🔹Price cuts

Thread: Ship tracker:

Bulls claim "record" 10 ships to 🇪🇺, beating 9 for Q4 2020 and 7 for Q4 2019.

This may lead to a record in UK, which got RHD supply from 3 boats from Shanghai, in answer to *new* BEV incentives.

But rest of 🇪🇺 had to do with 7 ships vs 9 last Q (7 SFO + 2 SHG).

Elon tweets about FSD not simply to pump the stock.

Seems like with all those recent price cuts, FSD makes the difference between selling 2020 inventory at a profit of a loss, both in case of new or used car.

Let's look at just one particular *used* VIN in 🇨🇭 : There are still 17 used M3 on offer in 🇨🇭, and 6 of them are loaded with FSD. In early February that FSD option was basically valued at zero.

At same time only 2 new inventory car had FSD option, see earlier tweet

https://twitter.com/BonaireVolt/status/1357671110574108673?s=20

Finally some life springing back to the EU $TSLA Q3 delivery scene!

Inventory had been emptied out by end of Q2 and the first RORO unloaded only 2 weeks ago, so we could not really expect much before.

Will it be business as usual for rest of Q3?

Thread 1/14 Most inventory for new cars shown on 14 Tesla EU sites still says "in transit". Far fewer cars have a city "site" label attached to them.

For example in CH about 30 M3 (out of 100+) are attached to either Zurich or Geneva. 8 out of 13 S and 5 out of 15 X also "on site".

2/14