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Callum Hunter Profile picture
Callum Hunter
@Callum_L_Hunter
Senior Data Scientist & Strategist | @JLPartnersPolls | Chair NW Hants CLP 🌹 Work featured in @DailyMail @Spectator @thetimes @LabourList @WSJ
Dec 29, 2024 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
With 4.5 yrs to an election, doing this kind of analysis seems a little redundant. But, it's about more than just projecting the number of seats - underneath that lies important lessons about how our politics is changing.

A 🧵 on the changing electoral map of Britain. (1/7) The old assumptions about red and blue walls are no longer true. The electorate is more fluid and fractured than ever. Labour is currently in a perilous position in NE, and even in parts of the Manchester-Merseyside bulwark. Something unthinkable even a few years ago. (2/7) Image
Oct 18, 2024 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
🇺🇸 Less than 3 wks to election day and the race is LEAN TRUMP🧵

📈Trump has surged since Sept - Harris' Honeymoon came to an abrupt end

🐘Trump wins the EC in 61% of simulations

⛴️Great Lakes states flipped for Trump on 10/10 and remain Trump

@J_L_Partners/@DailyMail Image 🤏 The race was tied during Aug and Sept but since has opened up quite wide - with Trump leading by 23% in our probability tracker

🏇Trump leads Harris by a head and shoulders coming into the final furlongs of the race. Huge push needed from Harris to turn the Trump tide. Image