CapOrbit Profile picture
Active investor with interest in funda. analysis, quant. approaches. Views are strictly personal. Views are not investment recommendations.
Rohit Chauhan Profile picture 1 added to My Authors
4 May
I read a transcript of a podcast where Graham Duncan, co-founder of East Rock Capital, a multi-family office investment firm that manages $2 billion for a small number of families was interviewed
Some good excerpts in the thread below:
tim.blog/2019/03/01/the…

1/n
On not being rigid in investment management. Not being hung up on labels and identity but rather focusing on the goal and adapting to markets which are dynamic.

2/n
On the topic of win rates...

3/n
Read 4 tweets
1 May
Thread on long Covid and health risks.

Recovery from Covid is understood by most to be when acute phase symptoms, including fever, cough, fatigue, headaches, go away.

Are there hidden risks beyond the acute phase? Are some of them even fatal? Could some be prevented?
1/n Image
There is ample evidence that the body does not come back to pre-Covid equilibrium for some people, partly due to permanent damage to cells in different organs (as varied as pancreas, brain, lungs) for some and/or heightened inflammatory state in the body.

2/n
In light of this, it is important to recognize that there is need for caution even later. The impact of some of these long-covid conditions can be non-fatal but chronic. More worrying is the potential risk of death even months later.
3/n
Read 25 tweets
3 Apr
A thread on possible clotting risks, elevated D-Dimer and Long Covid.
Disclaimer - this is not medical advice. In health matters speak to a doc. You do have a right to ask your doc though on things you read about, it is your health after all
1/n
D-dimer Wiki
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D-dimer

In addition, it is used in the diagnosis of the blood disorder disseminated intravascular coagulation.[1] A four-fold increase in the protein is a strong predictor of mortality in those suffering from COVID-19.
2/n
D-dimer test is prescribed nowadays in acute phase to be sure that there is no clotting risk. I do not hear of it as much for most patients post-Covid (after few months).
I have heard of at least a few cases of sudden strokes/pulmonary embolism events 2-3 mths after recovery
3/n
Read 10 tweets
2 May 20
Thread - A book topic that I had read some time ago on the factual vs. the myriad counterfactual cases got me interested in this way of looking at events/actions.

On Covid (factual)
Deaths caused to date - 1218.
The lockdown has reduced what might have been a larger number
1/n
Tuberculosis in India - data for 2020 and 2019. Notified patients have decreased by 2.5 lakh. Big drivers of the decrease would be lack of transport/healthcare diverted to Covid/migration, primarily due to the lockdown.

2/n ImageImage
Source of above data: reports.nikshay.in/Reports/TBNoti…

Number of patients in India - 26.9 lakh. Notified patients - 19.9 lakh
economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-…

Number of patients dying of TB in India - 4.2 lakh

indiaspend.com/indians-dying-…

3/n
Read 11 tweets
10 Feb 20
Thoughts on impact of nCov on chemicals sector in India.

1. One cannot use a broad brush approach. Many companies have diversified revenue streams. They sell many different chemicals.

1/n
2. To make a chemical here you need the RM, which could be imported from China. Does the listco in India have access to alternate sources? At what cost?

2/n
3. A Chinese plant may be shut down because of restrictions. World-level supply comes down for that chemical. In this case, the Indian company can benefit it it did not have RM dependency on China (a good chance of that happening in chemicals, not in the pharma sector though)
3/n
Read 6 tweets
28 Nov 19
A thread on Mudra loans. They are in the news again after the RBI flagged off the fear of NPAs in Mudra loans.

Most people do not know (including the press and the sell-side) that the word "Mudra" has 2 meanings.

1. Mudra loans (as spoken of in press)
2. MUDRA, the company
Mudra loans - basically optics/marketing exercise. Quoting from the Mudra website - "All loans sanctioned on or after April 08, 2015 up to a loan size of 10 lakh for non-farm income generating activities will be branded as PMMY loans."
Imp. point - Such loans are not new
From the Mudra FY18 AR:

Imp. to note - Rs. 5.44 lakh crore disbursed by other institutions including banks, NBFCs, MFIs, not lending by the government specifically
Read 17 tweets
14 Oct 19
...the SIP closure ratio, which is the number of discontinued SIPs as a % of new SIPs registered, rose to 66% in Aug and Sep.

This meant that for every 3 SIP accounts opened, 2 were discontinued over the last 2 months.
business-standard.com/article/market…
on SIP equity flows :
Aug-19 saw around Rs. 82 bn of SIP and Rs. 7 bn of lumpsum inflows.
Sep-19 saw around Rs. 89 bn of SIP inflows, Rs. 20 bn of lumpsum outflows.

Until when will expensive names be held up? Let's see over the next few months.
Large Cap SIP returns (sorted on 2yr) from Moneycontrol:
Read 5 tweets
1 Oct 19
A thread on authoritarian rule and outcomes for a country. These are thoughts that I had shared a few months ago with a group of investors:
-Most people do not consider base rates. How many such leaders ruled different countries and how many countries were successful?

1/n
When a large section of population is frustrated it is easy for a leader to cultivate hatred of a minority /xenophobia. Most are fine until the brunt is borne by somebody else. They basically have taken a long shot or what is called as a Hail Mary pass in American football.
2/n
Howard Marks had talked about risk and return. With higher risk, there is higher variability in returns. So, to begin with, people have decided to up risk levels by electing an authoritarian leader.

3/n Image
Read 9 tweets
3 Sep 19
A thread that has some thoughts on gold, USDINR and recessions.
This is the long term chart of gold in USD (XAU/USD in investing.com)
Period considered - from Jan 2007 to date
the same gold in USD series (right axis) with USD-INR (left axis).

Gold is considered as a safe-haven during crises and a store of value when currencies/broad money (M3) is debased continuously by governments, especially more so, after the Bretton Woods era ended in 1971 (2/n)
I was interested in seeing behaviour of gold in USD during the global crisis of 2008. We zoom in to CY08, in the first chart. (same data - XAU and USD-INR)
In the second chart, see the same series but showing % moves through the year.
INR depreciated by 22%. Gold rose 3.5% (3/n)
Read 13 tweets
8 Jun 19
Thread:

Got this nice piece in an article. I think the same holds for direct stocks vs. mutual funds.

My view is that anybody who is starting off with equities should not use more than 5 pc of the amount they intend to commit through the direct route. (1/n)
This is assuming that one knows some basics of investing. You should scale up direct stocks over time if you know you are not losing money terribly. Some "tuition fees to market" / losses are understandable. Only when you get better, exposing more money makes sense (2/n)
The rest of the 95pc of money will be working hopefully in the hands of a decent MF manager. For no reason should goals be jeopardized by making losses on a large fraction of investible capital in direct equities when you are not good yet. (3/n)
Read 5 tweets
8 May 19
A very topical piece on the bailout of real estate sector with PSU banks / public money indirectly during the 2008 global financial crisis.I say topical because we will see part 2 this year imo
equitymaster.com/ht/detail.asp?…
well, some data which shows that this game is already on.
Direct assignment transactions for loans jumped to Rs. 1.28 lakh crore in FY19, 2.6x the amount seen in FY18. 66% of this was DA by housing finance cos. most of it is being picked up by PSU Banks (from an ICRA report)
in line with an old thread that I'd written, this is 2008 redux. Bailout again for RE is very much happening and will continue.
Read 5 tweets
19 Oct 18
during crash of 2008, PSU banks stepped on the gas and heavily increased disbursements to RE. They were bailed out, plain and simple. We can guess who pushed them to do so and why. In the years that followed, NBFCs became an important source of credit. (1/n)
Let's see whether this govt. is any different and whether they finally call an end to the game of hot potato where many RE companies are kept alive on borrowings. Extend and pretend. The NBFCs knew it too but kept playing. When will the common man see lower RE prices? (2/2)
With the pressure on the RBI, looks like we've got the answer to which way the country takes...
Read 8 tweets