I read a transcript of a podcast where Graham Duncan, co-founder of East Rock Capital, a multi-family office investment firm that manages $2 billion for a small number of families was interviewed
Some good excerpts in the thread below:
tim.blog/2019/03/01/the…

1/n On not being rigid in investment management. Not being hung up on labels and identity but rather focusing on the goal and adapting to markets which are dynamic.

2/n

Thread on long Covid and health risks.

Recovery from Covid is understood by most to be when acute phase symptoms, including fever, cough, fatigue, headaches, go away.

Are there hidden risks beyond the acute phase? Are some of them even fatal? Could some be prevented?
1/n There is ample evidence that the body does not come back to pre-Covid equilibrium for some people, partly due to permanent damage to cells in different organs (as varied as pancreas, brain, lungs) for some and/or heightened inflammatory state in the body.

2/n

A thread on possible clotting risks, elevated D-Dimer and Long Covid.
Disclaimer - this is not medical advice. In health matters speak to a doc. You do have a right to ask your doc though on things you read about, it is your health after all
1/n D-dimer Wiki
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D-dimer

In addition, it is used in the diagnosis of the blood disorder disseminated intravascular coagulation.[1] A four-fold increase in the protein is a strong predictor of mortality in those suffering from COVID-19.
2/n

Thread - A book topic that I had read some time ago on the factual vs. the myriad counterfactual cases got me interested in this way of looking at events/actions.

On Covid (factual)
Deaths caused to date - 1218.
The lockdown has reduced what might have been a larger number
1/n Tuberculosis in India - data for 2020 and 2019. Notified patients have decreased by 2.5 lakh. Big drivers of the decrease would be lack of transport/healthcare diverted to Covid/migration, primarily due to the lockdown.

2/n

Thoughts on impact of nCov on chemicals sector in India.

1. One cannot use a broad brush approach. Many companies have diversified revenue streams. They sell many different chemicals.

1/n 2. To make a chemical here you need the RM, which could be imported from China. Does the listco in India have access to alternate sources? At what cost?

2/n

A thread on Mudra loans. They are in the news again after the RBI flagged off the fear of NPAs in Mudra loans.

Most people do not know (including the press and the sell-side) that the word "Mudra" has 2 meanings.

1. Mudra loans (as spoken of in press)
2. MUDRA, the company Mudra loans - basically optics/marketing exercise. Quoting from the Mudra website - "All loans sanctioned on or after April 08, 2015 up to a loan size of 10 lakh for non-farm income generating activities will be branded as PMMY loans."
Imp. point - Such loans are not new

...the SIP closure ratio, which is the number of discontinued SIPs as a % of new SIPs registered, rose to 66% in Aug and Sep.

This meant that for every 3 SIP accounts opened, 2 were discontinued over the last 2 months.
business-standard.com/article/market… on SIP equity flows :
Aug-19 saw around Rs. 82 bn of SIP and Rs. 7 bn of lumpsum inflows.
Sep-19 saw around Rs. 89 bn of SIP inflows, Rs. 20 bn of lumpsum outflows.

Until when will expensive names be held up? Let's see over the next few months.

A thread on authoritarian rule and outcomes for a country. These are thoughts that I had shared a few months ago with a group of investors:
-Most people do not consider base rates. How many such leaders ruled different countries and how many countries were successful?

1/n When a large section of population is frustrated it is easy for a leader to cultivate hatred of a minority /xenophobia. Most are fine until the brunt is borne by somebody else. They basically have taken a long shot or what is called as a Hail Mary pass in American football.
2/n

A thread that has some thoughts on gold, USDINR and recessions.
This is the long term chart of gold in USD (XAU/USD in investing.com)
Period considered - from Jan 2007 to date the same gold in USD series (right axis) with USD-INR (left axis).

Gold is considered as a safe-haven during crises and a store of value when currencies/broad money (M3) is debased continuously by governments, especially more so, after the Bretton Woods era ended in 1971 (2/n)

Thread:

Got this nice piece in an article. I think the same holds for direct stocks vs. mutual funds.

My view is that anybody who is starting off with equities should not use more than 5 pc of the amount they intend to commit through the direct route. (1/n) This is assuming that one knows some basics of investing. You should scale up direct stocks over time if you know you are not losing money terribly. Some "tuition fees to market" / losses are understandable. Only when you get better, exposing more money makes sense (2/n)

A very topical piece on the bailout of real estate sector with PSU banks / public money indirectly during the 2008 global financial crisis.I say topical because we will see part 2 this year imo
equitymaster.com/ht/detail.asp?… well, some data which shows that this game is already on.
Direct assignment transactions for loans jumped to Rs. 1.28 lakh crore in FY19, 2.6x the amount seen in FY18. 66% of this was DA by housing finance cos. most of it is being picked up by PSU Banks (from an ICRA report)

during crash of 2008, PSU banks stepped on the gas and heavily increased disbursements to RE. They were bailed out, plain and simple. We can guess who pushed them to do so and why. In the years that followed, NBFCs became an important source of credit. (1/n) Let's see whether this govt. is any different and whether they finally call an end to the game of hot potato where many RE companies are kept alive on borrowings. Extend and pretend. The NBFCs knew it too but kept playing. When will the common man see lower RE prices? (2/2)