CapexAndChill Profile picture
Engineer by day, equity investing by night. My highest conviction holdings are $MELI, $META, $AMZN, $GOOG, $ASML, $UBER, & $BN
Jun 17 12 tweets 8 min read
Breaking down $MELI's updated investor presentation 👇

Notice the aggressive decoupling of the fintech arm from the core e-commerce marketplace. Unique retail buyers grew by 20% to 126M, but Fintech Monthly Active Users accelerated faster at 29% to hit 83M. Pago is a standalone financial utility. By absorbing the massive unbanked and underbanked populations of Latin America, they drastically expanded their TAM far beyond standard retail consumers.

This structural shift is actively creating monetization efficiency. $MELI reached a massive $31.8B in net revenue driven by a 49% CAGR since 2020. This heavily outpaces base user growth. Mercado Libre is extracting significantly more cash from each active user over time. They are locking consumers into a closed-loop system of credit, payments, and logistics, relentlessly driving up the LTV of their existing base.Image Notice the massive spread between $MELI's e-commerce GMV and Acquiring TPV. E-commerce GMV sits at $71B, but Acquiring TPV is nearly 3x larger at $204B! By dominating QR codes and in-store payments, they are capturing a massive share of offline and 3P transactions.

This multi-engine structure creates an impenetrable data advantage. The massive $204B in payment volume acts as a proprietary data feed to more accurately underwrite the $15B credit portfolio. While traditional regional banks rely on lagging credit bureaus, Mercado Libre uses real-time cash flow data from its merchants and consumers to issue loans and manage default risk.

By layering high-margin businesses like Credit and Ads on top of sticky utility services like Logistics and Payments, Mercado Libre locks users into a walled garden and drives maximum lifetime profitability.Image
Jun 2 9 tweets 3 min read
$NVDA GTC Taipei just concluded their financial analyst day and it is showing some very interesting insights. Aside from the $1T nod to $MRVL there is a lot of interesting details 👇 Image $NVDA officially committed to returning 50% or more of its free cash flow to shareholders not just for the current fiscal year, but next year and beyond.

This goes along with the newly authorized $80B share repurchase program and a structural intent to scale dividends and repurchases dynamically over time alongside free cash flow growth.Image