Danny Boy Profile picture
Irish & European. The abuse on twitter is relentless, will likely delete it permanently soon.
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27 Oct
If Irish media insist on giving this "herd immunity" guy a platform in the interests of balance, there should be fact checking at the bottom of his articles because some of his claims are stupidly misleading.

Fine I'll do it myself. /1

irishtimes.com/opinion/martin…
Quote:

"The HSE published (December 2018) the recorded data which showed a Flu mortality (CFR) of 2.14 per cent; that is almost 10-fold higher than Covid-19. Undoubtedly, this is an overestimate but there was a vaccine"

Gonna file this under "completely misleading bullshit".
2018 Flu season:

Notified cases: 11,889
Notified deaths: 255
CFR: 2.14%

Dr. Feeley is then saying this Flu CFR is 10-fold higher than Covid-19 fatality rate.

Interesting argument, and by interesting, I mean embarrassing sleight of hand trickery.
Read 11 tweets
27 Oct
Belgium's positivity rates are reflecting their new policy of not testing asymptomatic close contacts.

As a result, positivity rates in Liège are running well over 33% and the age-specific positivity in those over 80-years-old is even higher.

It is looking desperate. /1
In terms of ICU, it was reported that Belgium asked Netherlands to accept some of their patients but Netherlands declined, on the basis they themselves already had to ask Germany to accept some of theirs.

Maximum capacity in Belgium is 2,000 but the rate of admission is the key.
There's 809 admitted into ICU in Belgium, which is a doubling rate of 8 days with +50 daily.

Belgian experts anticipate ICU will be overwhelmed like Lombardy by November 9th if they can't get the admission rates down.

Germany will accept Belgian patients into ICU, which helps.
Read 6 tweets
26 Oct
This is popping up everywhere as an example of an expert getting a prediction laughably wrong.

Make no mistake, it IS laughably wrong - today.

But you have to consider what this tweet was saying back then, not now, and when you do that, it's not laughable at all. /1
The tweet was written on September 14th.

3 population-level interventions were implemented since this tweet was written:

-Level 3 imposed in Dublin, September 18th
-Level 3 imposed in Ireland, October 6th
-Level 5 imposed in Ireland, October 21st
Tweet projected 5,000 cases a day in Dublin alone at the end of October with no intervention.

That is a considerable distance from Irelands 1,283 cases peak notified on October 18th and obviously leaves him wide open to mockery.

But there were interventions.

3 of them.
Read 12 tweets
25 Oct
I see some discussion about the Level 3 impact in Dublin, and more broadly whether Level 3 was working nationally.

You'd need to agree on what 'working' means but I'll take a look at the relevant case rates here and try discuss if it worked.
Dublin went into Level 3 on September 18th while at a 14-day incidence of 120.9 per 100,000.

120.9 was over double the national incidence which stood at 62.4 per 100,000.

No other county was above 100.0, with Louth 2nd highest at 93.9.
14-day incidence progression for Dublin (+/- 1 week difference):

Sep 19: 123.6
Sep 20: 136.4
Sep 21: 138.0
Sep 22: 136.9
Sep 23: 140.3
Sep 24: 144.5
Sep 25: 146.6 (+20%)

Sep 26: 148.7
Sep 27: 152.9
Sep 28: 160.3
Sep 29: 156.0
Sep 30: 159.3
Oct 1: 162.9
Oct 2: 168.2 (+14%)
Read 15 tweets
25 Oct
The complete breakdown (ROI and NI) is here.

The most concerning part of the Northern Ireland situation is undoubtedly in nursing homes and hospitals, in that order.

There is less pressure on hospitals here but we are far from out of the woods.
14-day cases per 100,000

NI: 749.0
ROI: 302.9

Derry City & Strabane: 1,393.8
Belfast: 1,053.2
Mid-Ulster: 1,013.4 ⬆️
Cavan 981.9 ⬇️
Lisburn & Castelreagh: 683.6
Meath: 652.7 ⬇️
Antrim & Newtonabbey: 647.6
Causeway & Glens: 572.6
Newry & Mourne: 571.6
Fermanagh & Omagh: 498.1
Good ✅:

-Derry & Strabane has fallen significantly from the peak (which reached almost 1,800.0). In around 6 days they will likely fall below Belfast if current trends hold.

-Cavan and Newry & Mourne improvements continue.

Bad ❎:

-Mid-Ulster growing, Belfast too high.
Read 7 tweets
25 Oct
I was praising Germany for what they have done to help others.

It was meant to be an uplifting tweet but you immediately want to be miserable, turn it into a negative and talk about politics.

Ok lets see what Ireland has done for others in the pandemic:
Ireland has donated €123 million so far in Covid aid to other countries.

€46.5 million went to initiatives like the UN’s Covid19 Global Humanitarian Response Plan.

That is an effort to help the poorest countries in the world gain access to tests and medical supplies.
€76.8 million went to other partnerships, such as Team Europe Covid Response, the EU's initiative to help other countries.

Countries like Gambia, to ensure they have enough oxygen in their hospitals and public services to stay afloat.

ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…
Read 7 tweets
25 Oct
Sorry this has taken me so long but I have a definite answer to your question.

Drinking age people (19-24) have a far higher incidence than school age people (15-18).

And honestly, the question is well-worded because alcohol has a definite role in that. /1
These are the official 7-day incidences per 100,000 presented in the Daily Briefings.

Week 40:

19-24: 174.2
13-18: 63.2

Week 41:

19-24: 303.7
13-18: 127.3

Young adults with a far higher rate than teenagers.
This doesn't fully answer the question asked though, because this shows you 13-18 vs 19-24.

The question is 15-18 vs 19-24.

That can be calculated through combining a few pieces of information given at the October 22nd press conference, it just took me a while :)
Read 18 tweets
24 Oct
Last 24 hours:

Tests: 17,572
Positives: 969
Negativity rate: 94.5%

Another improvement today. I'll add a few more thoughts on it. /1
The reason 5.5% is grounds for *tentative encouragement* is if growth is left unchecked, you don't get these weeks where the positivity rate drops a couple of %.

What you get is it increasing daily with no let-up, that was certainly the case in Belgium, Israel, Czech Republic.
The key word is "tentative".

Nobody is doing any celebration jigs at 5.5% positivity and 300.0+ per 100,000 14-day incidence.

The situation remains very precarious & infection is far too high.

But you'd clearly take this 5.5% tentative encouragement over 10%+ worry.
Read 6 tweets
24 Oct
I don't have the energy to keep blocking 200 people like you every day.

None of whom ever discuss threads I invest a lot of time into and skip directly to personal attacks.

Near-universally "fans" of Sinn Fein giving me grief, too.

I have had enough of your nonsense. /1
Many of my tweets are on what is happening in other parts of the world and funnily enough, nobody seems to abuse me for those.

I've written nearly 3,000 tweets on other countries to try keep people informed.

My tweets on Ireland range from discussing things like ICU survival rates, contact tracing, positivity rates, hospitalisations.

I do one of these updates most days so people don't have to go trawling the internet to find out the situation:

Read 20 tweets
23 Oct
Wow! :(

Northern Ireland now has more people admitted in hospital with Covid19 (333) than they did during the April peak (322).

They join a very small list, alongside Czech Republic, for whom the Winter Wave is already worse than the Spring Wave, in terms of hospitalisations.
Hospitals picture is desperate for them.

Derry area alone has nearly 200% of the April peak admitted today and there's 34 in ICU with 94% bed occupancy:

Northern Ireland:

Admitted: 333
ICU: 34

Ireland:

Admitted: 311
ICU: 37
Unfortunately, Northern Ireland have also surpassed the April peak in Nursing homes.

Outbreaks:

Northern Ireland: 103 (92 confirmed, 11 suspected)
Ireland: 37 (5 in week 42)

That's a huge number of care homes dealing with outbreaks in Northern Ireland, it's 1-in-every-4.
Read 6 tweets
23 Oct
The early impact of October 6th's Level 3 restrictions is potentially on display because the positivity rate was quickly heading north of 8% and has dropped off this week.

It's 5.8% in Last 24 hours:

Tests: 17,746
Positives: 1,038
Negativity rate: 94.2%
It's difficult to know how long that impact will last for or how the Level 5 impact will supplement it.

But right now, Ireland has steered away from the trajectory of Belgium or Czech Republic, in that neither of those experienced this 5-day drop off in positivity rates.
The positivity rates in Belgium (18.7%) and Czech Republic (34%) increased daily for weeks, with no drop-off period.

So whether it's the Level 3 impact or simply people staying on their couch more a few weeks ago, there's a demarcation or divergence happening.
Read 4 tweets
22 Oct
It amazes me how some think there is no world outside Ireland or the issues we face must only be happening here.

Right across Europe testing/tracing systems are buckling under the weight of community infection, most worse than here.

I'll outline why this is important to know.
Netherlands system = collapsed.

They now have so much infection testing turnaround is a week in parts & they can't find new contact tracing staff.

GP's were recently told it is no longer even possible to be informed if patients test positive.

nltimes.nl/2020/10/21/gps…
Think that through.

A Dutch GP sends someone off for a test, and they are so overwhelmed they don't have the system nor staff to inform the GP of the result.

It is up to the patient to call their own GP to say "Soooo, I am positive" or "Hey Doc, good news I'm grand".
Read 19 tweets
22 Oct
There are over 2,500 nursing home outbreaks ongoing in Europe today, including 130 on this island (93 in Northern Ireland, 37 in Ireland).

When community infection is high, it's difficult to keep the virus out of the setting.
Some of the Nursing home clusters (active cases):

France: 304 (2,870 cases)
Netherands: 159 (2,091 cases)
Portugal: 129 (1,425 cases)

There is ~28,750 nursing home residents involved in these recent outbreaks in Europe (period - past 3 weeks).
Netherlands give a breakdown of nursing home testing, which I find very useful.

Week ending:

October 4th:

Tests 5,460
Positives: 454
Positivity: 8.3%

October 11th:

Tests 5,984
Positives: 581
Positivity: 9.7%

October 18th:

Tests 7,390
Positives: 863
Positivity: 11.7%
Read 5 tweets
22 Oct
Going through the HSPC Outbreak report, in terms of vulnerable populations.

It is mostly good news, reflecting a lot of good work.

However, this has been a terrible week for Irish Travellers and is not acceptable, we have to protect everyone in society equally.
Now, there's some confusion on this because the numbers do not add up.

On one hand, there are 17 new clusters accounting for +258 cases in Week 42.

On the other hand, the increase in overall cases is listed as +458 (minus 5 denotifications).
I'm guessing there is a typo here and that 258 is the correct number because the average cluster size of 15 is in line with previous weeks for Travellers.

Either way, 258 cases in one week doubles the entire case count for the pandemic.
Read 7 tweets
22 Oct
I took a look back at some of my threads to reflect on whether I was accurate in forecasting what was coming to Ireland and Europe in October.

I got the core of it correct, so this is a 🤫 to people who called me names over those threads. /1
Europe's hospital & ICU numbers are rising at a frightening pace.

There is 3,748 more in ICU in Europe tonight than there was 10 days ago. The total now stands over 12,000.

I predicted all of this on September 13th.

Where Europe is at tonight:

France is over 2,000 in ICU, Spain will join them Saturday.

Italy and Germany are both set to exceed 1,000 each in ICU by Friday, UK set to follow on Monday.

Belgium and Netherlands set to surpass 500 by Saturday.
Read 12 tweets
21 Oct
This is incredible and infuriating.

I am going to defend Northern Ireland and also here too, seeing as they have decided to rip into both of them lately. /1
6 days ago a Sinn Fein MLA called Northern Ireland's test/trace an "abysmal failure, as useful as a chocolate fireguard".

So it's an abysmal failure up North, inadequate down South...

But up North it's the Public Health Agency's fault and down South they blame... FF?

WHAT.
The exchanges up North were disgraceful, forcing this defence by the PHA.

"“I’m the chief executive of this organisation (PHA) so I am responsible and I can’t accept that you compare the service that we have set up to a chocolate fireguard,” said Olive MacLeod.
Read 11 tweets
21 Oct
People's misconceptions are wild.

I saw someone say it's a travesty that Ireland's contact tracing has "collapsed" and why can't we be like Sweden.

That would be Sweden where people had to *do their own contact tracing* for months. /1

reuters.com/article/us-hea…
Quote:

"Unlike most tracing systems, the Swedish system is not anonymous as individuals are expected to deliver the news of their infection to anyone they’ve been in close contact with."

Literally "how about just do it yourselves lads".
As for Ireland - 1,000+ cases a day, average close contacts is 5-6. Tens of thousands of calls weekly.

First 19 could have 3 contacts and then one was at a house party, pub and went into work and has 43 contacts.

That can take days to trace, near-irrespective of more staff.
Read 8 tweets
21 Oct
I've updated the current 14-day incidence by age group.

More needs to be done to get younger adults on board because their rates are disproportionately high compared to rest of population.
14-day cases per 100,000, by age:

Ireland: 279.3

15 - 24: 565.4
25 - 34: 350.1
85+: 241.8
45 - 54: 232.7
55 - 64: 221.8
35 - 44: 210.0
65 - 74: 132.4
75 - 84: 132.1
5 - 14: 131.9
0 - 4: 110.9
You don't need to be Sherlock Holmes to see the biggest problem is sky-high cases in young adults.

Ireland's 14-day incidence excluding them is almost 40% lower at 190.2 per 100,000.

Overall case rates would drop markedly if rates in young adults fell.
Read 5 tweets
20 Oct
I know it's difficult to see a glass-half-full view but I think Irish society has done very well in the last 4 months to keep deaths to a minimum, after a tough Spring.

You can see that more clearly when you compare the cumulative deaths in the EU 27 over that period.
Cumulative deaths per million population, July 1st to October 20th, European Union:

1. Romania: 226
2. Spain: 126
3. Czech Republic: 116
4. Bulgaria: 112
5. Malta: 84
6. Croatia: 67
7. Hungary: 64
8. Portugal: 62
9. France: 62
10. Poland: 59
11. Belgium: 59
12. Sweden: 57
13. Netherlands: 40
14. Luxembourg: 40
15. Slovenia: 39
16. Greece: 33
17. Italy: 32
18. Austria: 24
19. Ireland: 24
20. Denmark: 15
21. Lithuania: 15
22. Slovakia: 13
23. Germany: 11
24. Latvia: 9
25. Cyprus: 5
26. Finland: 4
27. Estonia: 2
Read 4 tweets
20 Oct
14-day cases per 100,000:

NI: 714.3
ROI: 261.7

Derry City & Strabane: 1,723.7
Belfast: 1,001.9
Mid-Ulster: 890.1
Cavan 824.4
Newry & Mourne: 638.8
Lisburn & Castelreagh: 571.7
Antrim & Newtonabbey: 563.6
Causeway & Glens: 501.9 ⬆️
Meath: 490.1 ⬇️
Fermanagh & Omagh: 451.9
Good:

-Derry & Strabane improving.
-Newry & Mourne going right direction.
-Belfast lowest daily growth in weeks

Bad:

-Hospital situation precarious.
-Belfast breached the 1,000.0 mark.
-Causeway & Glens substantial increase.
Hospitals:

NI:

Admitted: 286 (+25 on yesterday)
ICU: 29 (no change)

ROI:

Admitted: 315 (+17 on yesterday)
ICU: 34 (no change)

Northern Ireland now at 95% bed occupancy with 142 out of 2,782 beds available.
Read 6 tweets
20 Oct
Tests per million population, EU countries (1m+ population):

October:

1. Denmark: 139,573
2. Belgium: 81,632
3. Spain: 59,429
4. Ireland: 54,890
5. Finland: 52,193
6. Lithuania: 48,515
7. Portugal: 47,349
8. France: 44,756
9. Germany: 43,299
10. Czech Republic: 41,835
11. Latvia: 40,062
12. Italy: 38,163
13. Austria: 35,421
14. Slovenia: 32,837
15. Slovakia: 31,514
16. Sweden: 26,012
17. Netherlands: 24,638
18. Romania: 25,545
19. Croatia: 24,291
20. Estonia: 24,131
21. Greece: 23,270
22. Hungary: 20,179
23. Poland: 18,972
24. Bulgaria: 12,162
3 member states < 1 million population:

Tests per million, October:

Luxembourg: 181,692
Malta: 100,831
Cyprus: 46,416

Someone got mad at me about separating this last time but the logistics of Slovakia testing a 5 million population are not very similar to Malta with 490,000.
Read 4 tweets