Professor of Politics & Economics Univ. of Toronto. Great Powers. Currencies. Economics & Security. Senior fellow @AtlanticCouncil 🇸🇪 🇪🇺 🇺🇳
Sep 23, 2023 • 17 tweets • 3 min read
1/ My piece for @ProSyn explains why understanding the persistence of the dollar-centric system requires looking beyond the dollar's reserve currency status & appreciating the network effects that keep the dollar on top of the currency hierarchy.
project-syndicate.org/commentary/why…2/ The dollar enjoys full-spectrum dominance across both public and private markets. Any shift away from the dollar must t/f be supported by multiple actors.
Feb 23, 2023 • 18 tweets • 6 min read
Dollar hegemony is likely to persist despite geopolitical challenges. My piece @ForeignAffairs
🧵 1/18
foreignaffairs.com/united-states/…
U.S. sanctions in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have pushed some countries to further reduce their reliance on the dollar.
Oct 1, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Dollar dominance is indisputable. But there are a lot unknowns when interpreting what these shares mean, and it is too early to tell whether the war will halt the long term move away from the dollar. 🧵
1/ The overall share of dollar reserves increased 1% between the end of March 2022 and the end of June 2022. But this mixes a period of war with a period of war.
Apr 13, 2022 • 9 tweets • 7 min read
So much for the “capitalist peace” that was supposed to ensnare Russia economically and forestall military aggression
The economic angle now runs in the reverse direction
🇫🇮 & 🇸🇪 security “under the umbrella” is seen as a condition for prosperity 🧵
Amidst satellite images of mass graves in Butja and Russia’s intensified Eastern offensive, military assistance to Ukraine is urgent
'Rubles for gas' is a Russian trap. Further economic sanctions, even energy sanctions, are unlikely to have the intended effect 🧵
Following atrocities against civilians in Butja, Ukraine’s president Zelensky says Russia is committing genocide
Humanitarian experts agree, the scale of carnage is not key. Indicators are: systematic murder, rape, torture of civilians, deportation, targeting of “ethnic” group
Mar 20, 2022 • 17 tweets • 6 min read
Written 3 weeks before the Russian invasion, my piece on the “new economic containment” is FINALLY out @ForeignAffairs
A 🧵 on financial deterrence, isolation and signalling
foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukrai…
The immediate goal of the sanctions is to end the war effort by raising the price of financing the war and the overall cost of not reaching a peace settlement. Lowering the net gains of conquest presents Russia with a guns-butter trap
Jul 24, 2020 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
In the midst of escalating US - China tensions, I highly recommend @segoddard's book 'When Right Makes Might', provocative, learned, enthralling and a remarkable achievement 👇🏾 1/
