2016: Manafort gives Kiliminik internal campaign polling data to lay out where to prepare to "move" on election night.
ABC's Chris Vlasto gives Trump camp secret media consortium exit polling data at 5:01 election night showing he'd lost (and in which states) while polls were still open. Pretty sure Team Trump (Manafort) got it to Team Putin.
77k votes perfectly spread across 3 battleground states then showed up, giving Trump the Electoral College win.
Whistleblower once testified that Karl Rove told her if a state is within 3% on election night, you can cheat undetected. It's why Trump freaked out about mail-in voting in 2020 (due to pandemic) and had Louis Dejoy rip mailboxes out of the ground in heavily Dem neighborhoods, then dismantle $2 million mail sorting machines just before the election. Panic. Harder to cheat with mailed paper ballots. And it's why Trump lost. As outlined in The Mueller Report, Manfort gave internal Trump campaign polling data to Kiliminik, who then shared it with Russia/Putin. Russia knew where Trump might need "help" on election night.
apnews.com/article/donald…

An olf friend of mine in politics told me of a night decades ago when Sen. Biden was in New Orleans visiting (pre-Jill, he was dating a women from there) and they were at someone's home for a dinner party. They talked politics well into the night -- policy, foreign policy, 1/5

https://twitter.com/CheriJacobus/status/1773520047480111130

foreign policy, state and local politics, federal budget -- literally everything you could think of. Some of the men went and even sat napping on sofas in this large home as Biden and the serious folk got deeper into it.2/5

In 2008 I was a GOP strategist and pundit on TV several times a week. Things were different then. GOP and Dems were not "enemies". On inauguration day I did some TV. That night I was at an inauguration party at a neighbor's home to celebrate the first Black President -- Obama 1/6 I was one of only 2 or 3 white people. The older Black people struggled to walk to the Capitol that day but would not have missed it for the world. It was so deeply moving for them. Some of them went to bed early that night. The youngers were heading out to late parties. 2/6

h/t Fred M. Baer
History You Should Know (must read thread)

It was late at night in the Jersey City railroad station in 1864, and Robert Todd Lincoln, the president’s son, was in a crowd of people trying to buy tickets for a berth in a sleeping car. 1/8 Robert, a student at Harvard Law School at the time, was jostled against the side of the railroad car and when the train began to move, he was pulled off his feet and over a crevice that would drop him onto the tracks. 2/8

Before Elon removes my blue check mark tomorrow, I hope you'll sign up for "Politics With Cheri Jacobus". I have truly fabulous guests! @ericswalwell @petestrzok @RepRitchie @sarahkendzior @morgfair @MrJonCryer @itsJeffTiedrich @marceelias @tomarnold 1/4 patreon.com/PoliticsWithCh… @jadedcreative @williegarson @RickPetree @PamKeithFL @NHJennifer @jennycohn1 @davidfolkenflik @glennkirschner2 @cliffschecter @AuthorKimberley @bobcesca_go @john_sipher @reallyactivist @BasilSmiklePhD @JYSexton @Victorshi2020 @cmclymer @StevenBeschloss @IAmSophiaNelson 2/4

Real TV and movie stars are a dying breed (literally). With so many viewing options to opt in or out, the days of "everyone" knowing "all" the actors/stars are pretty much are gone. If you don't get Netflix, you don't know who half the winners are at the awards shows. 1/5 Same with every subscriber TV channel. In fact, the Netflix's, Starz, HBOMax, etc all need to plug in at least one or two "stars" from the era of 3 TV networks and movie theaters to pull it together. Anchor it. To pull us in w/ familiar faces from TV/movie era we grew up on.2/5

Important thread: H/T Ron Faucheux's "Lunchtime Politics"

BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as Feb. 10

RON’S COMMENT: Looks like Biden’s State of the Union message had no impact on his job rating; his poll average was 44% before the speech and it’s 44% now…. 1/7 The Chinese spy balloon incident doesn’t appear to have had much impact, either…. Today’s average is based on four polls. Biden’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (+1 since Feb. 10), putting him at 8 points net negative.2/7

Cancer Pro-Tips:
Reminder to those getting ready for chemo for and their caregivers/supporters: Eat the super salads and extremely healthy diet before you start treatment. And afterwards as you slowly recover from treatment, and then for the rest of your life. Not during! 1/9 This goes double if you're doing both chemo and radiation at the same time and have double recovery to "enjoy"🙄 (BEEN THERE!).
HOWEVER -- while you are actually going through treatment, you need CALORIES and PROTEIN. Drink the milkshakes (if your system can handle it). 2/9

Sherman the cat, a dumped pet that joined my feral colony a while back, is finally getting neutered, etc. He was a perfect love when I petted him, picked him up, and carried him to my car. The carrier in the car terrified him. He fought hard, cut his nose (lots of blood), flew around my car. Then when I took him in to the Humane Society, he got loose in the back room. When they got him, he bit someone. So now he's there for 10 days. I think it's best, because he needs deworming and other upkeep.

CAN YOU BELIEVE THE POLLS THIS YEAR?
by Ron Faucheux
Six years ago the polling industry suffered a big blow to its reputation. Despite the accuracy of many individual surveys, the overall picture that polls painted of the 2016 election had Hillary Clinton winning and Trump losing ––that picture was wrong. While polls were right Clinton would win the popular vote predictions were off she’d also win the electoral vote. 2 years ago polling took another hit when surveys showed inflated margins for Biden & predictions of blue wave in cong races didn’t pan out.

h/t Fred Baer
1970's men's fashion

h/t Ron Faucheux at "Lunchtime Politics"

Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +4 (48-44) Susquehanna
Average of recent polls: D +1
This is Biden’s biggest margin since the WSJ poll in August. GEORGIA
Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) over Herschel Walker (R): +7 (52-45) Quinnipiac
Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) over Herschel Walker (R): +1 (46-45) Trafalgar-R
Average of recent polls: D +3.3

MAGA plan:
Trump obstructed justice, "played" Garland, knowing he'd not indict him this close to the midterms, even though Trump is not on the ballot.1/6 GOP wins the House, makes Trump Speaker of the House, placing him 2 heartbeats away from the presidency. Those other 2 heartbeats are in danger
btw who is the Secret Service loyal to? 2/6

WikiLeaks's first release came in July 2016. Around the same time, candidate Trump announced that he hoped Russia would recover emails described as missing from a private server used by Clinton when she was Secretary of State (he later said that he was speaking sarcastically)1/4 WikiLeaks began releasing Clinton aide John Podesta’s stolen emails on October 7, 2016, less than one hour after a U.S. media outlet released video considered damaging to candidate Trump. 2/4

Thread: Mitch McConnell is upset and "confused" as to why MAGA Senate candidates suck so terribly and Dems have a great shot at holding the Senate. But here's why. He no longer chooses the candidates. Trump does. MAGA does. GOP is dead. In it's place is the MAGA fascist party.1/9 Remember, in 2016 the Establishment GOP did NOT back Trump in the primary. The Washington and state capitol elected officials and party leaders around the country were aghast, appalled, and disgusted by him. But they all fell in line after he was nominated. 2/9

When I sued Trump for defamation, he had my email hacked. He had the law firm doing his transition try to confirm a piece of info from my hacked email he thought would help him force a judge to change the venue, meaning I couldn't sue him in NY, wld have to start over in MD. 1/13 I'd given up my apt and was staying with a friend in NYC when not in MD helping care for my sick father. It took 6 weeks to get a new apt I would be sharing with a friend. Info from my hacked email would only show I'd left the one apt. I got new email after the hacking. 2/13

Thread: FB poster says this is an actual extract from a sex education school textbook for girls, printed in the early 60's in the UK.
"When retiring to the bedroom, prepare yourself for bed as promptly as possible." 1/9 "Whilst feminine hygiene is of the utmost importance, your tired husband does not want to queue for the bathroom, as he would have to do for his train. But remember to look your best when going to bed. Try to achieve a look that is welcoming without being obvious."2/9

If you've any doubts about how complicit our media is in screwing up our country, ask yourselves why either Conway is given TV air time. Pushed on us for no discernable reason other than "personal" friendships with media personalities. You decided "clever tweets" matter. 1/4 That so many of you eat this up shows that perhaps we deserve the overall sh**show we now have. A dying democracy, terrifying corrupt SCOTUS, authoritarianism, slaughtered kids. All because you need to be entertained and are as gullible as MAGA. 2/2

Twitter does not fully reflect the electorate, which is why it's dangerous to make assumptions based on your feed. The number of "those polls CAN'T be right! No one I know feels that way!" takes are frustrating. And damaging. 1/7 When I taught in the Graduate School of Political Management at GWU, there'd occasionally be a student who, when doing a presentation where they had to devise a strategy & message based on research, raw data (incl polls), wld lead with "everyone knows candidate X is such-and "2/7

THREAD: Political media has played a huge role in how divisive our politics are. I was on TV several thousand times before they banned me for Trump. 1/9 I can't count the number of times they'd call to see if I was right wing enough for a segment where they wanted "fireworks" or a "catfight" with a fake political strategist in over her head. If not, I wasn't booked.
Being a reasonable moderate simply wasn't ratings-worthy. 2/9

CNN published this racist piece for Michael Caputo. He's close to Buffalo white nationalist NY Watchmen. Some were at the Capitol Jan 6. CNN made him a contributor AFTER he was caught lying under oath to Congress abt contact w/Russians w/"dirt" on Hillary. cnn.com/2017/10/08/opi… This is Michael Caputo's close friend and associate, leader of Buffalo's NY Watchmen, a white nationalist group.