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Cheryl Rofer Profile picture
Cheryl Rofer
@CherylRofer
Retired nuclear scientist: national security, nature, science, and women's issues. She, her https://t.co/VaGaGNRzyB https://t.co/89AX7DyNvJ
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Mar 12, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
The absurdity of using nuclear weapons without it being nuclear war is striking, but we need to consider what in General Cotton's thinking that allows him to say something like this. 1/ Most nuclear strategists would say that using a battlefield nuclear weapon is nuclear war. We have seen this throughout the discussion of Putin's statements on the subject and the risks in escalating support for Ukraine. 2/
Mar 4, 2023 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Intelligence assessments are not the same as scientific papers. I wrote about the differences here. 1/
scientificamerican.com/article/lab-le… Scientific papers are open to all and rely on the collection of facts. Intelligence assessments rely much more on the perceived (and supported) reliablility of sources. 2/
Mar 2, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
The folk who love to calculate up how many bombs' worth of enriched uranium Iran might be able to produce are calculating.

That number ignores Iran's ability to build the rest of the bomb and the time it would take, the political decision to do so, and the means of delivery. 1/ But let's go along with the impression they want to give - that Iran could have up to seven bombs (their latest calculation) within a few months.

What would Iran do with seven nuclear bombs? 2/
Mar 1, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
We need to recognize that humans are sensitive to signs of distress in other humans, to the point where they may feel the same sort of distress. 1/ That ability, which has helped us to survive in groups, has unfortunately been coded in terms of a long-discarded theory: that distress in women is the result of a wandering womb, called hysteria. 2/
Feb 11, 2023 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Something to keep in mind is that we don't know what information is contained in these "classified" documents (more accurately, documents marked classified). 🧵 Detailed scheduling for a presidential trip will be classified before the trip, but probably not after the trip. Not all classified documents contain weighty government secrets. 2/
Feb 9, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Anyone who's ever participated in a fundraising drive learns early that the big donors are the most important. A little math shows that they provide most of the money, unless you assume that all the little donors will participate.

They won't. Further, it costs more to cajole the little donors into giving. You can talk to every one of a group of 20 or 30 big donors, but you can't talk individually to thousands of smaller ones.

Giving by the big donors can also be leveraged to push the little donors.
Feb 4, 2023 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
This tweet is being quoted a lot as reason for concern. That China floated those balloons (one in South America?) across the Western Hemisphere is cause for concern.

But other experts are pointing out that no nation is a rational, calculating, and unitary actor. 🧵 The United States has Republicans, who want to withdraw support from Ukraine. Russia has Vladimir Putin, who jumped into an unnecessary war. Britain has Brexit and all that entails. /2
Feb 3, 2023 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
A few thoughts on that series in @CJR on the coverage of Trump and Russia. 🧵

First, @CJR, WTF?

cjr.org/special_report… @CJR The breezy coverage necessarily leaves a lot out. But it could have pointed to continuing questions. Adequate coverage would have required at least a book.
Jan 29, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
This account does not make sense. 🧵
nytimes.com/2023/01/28/wor… (Not to mention the photo, which isn't clearly a reservoir as captioned but evokes a tiny something emitting RED.)
Jan 28, 2023 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Thinking about this in the context of the Tyre Nichols murder. 🧵 Both General Minihan and the Memphis "SCORPIONS" valorize physical force and death as answers to international or societal problems. 1/
Oct 28, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Any Republican House members extending support to the House Speaker and her husband?
Oct 27, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
As Amanpour says in this clip, this is really important. She presses the Ambassador hard, and he is quite clear. 1/ It's not just the UK ambassador, @pwnallthethings says, although I haven't found quotes from the others. So it's coming from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and possibly from higher up. 2/
Oct 24, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
I have combed through Vladimir Putin's speeches since February 24 in response to @wellerstein's suggestion that it would be useful to have all of Putin's nuclear threats in one place. A short thread summarizing them.
nucleardiner.wordpress.com/2022/10/24/put… February 24: Russia will respond immediately, and the consequences will be such as you have never seen in your entire history.
Oct 23, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Let me emphasize this.

The point of a "dirty bomb" is to contaminate an area with radioactive material. People in the area will ingest some of that material and will need medical treatment, but few will ingest enough to produce radiation sickness. 1/ Fear, because of all the fearful publications about nuclear matters, will be high. A "dirty bomb" is primarily a psychological weapon.

Cleaning up the area will be expensive, but if it is part of the general war destruction, it won't add a lot of expense. 2/
Oct 12, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Today in the information war -

I am seeing reports of Russian tear gas use against Ukrainian troops and thermite and phosphorus use against civilians.

All those uses are illegal. 1/ General Surovikin used all these weapons in Syria. They have an effect both on the battlefield and in information space.

I can't do much about the first, but let me make some suggestions on the second. 2/
Oct 12, 2022 • 7 tweets • 1 min read
On shiny objects

It's fun to speculate whether Ian or Elon is lying. Or whatever might be going on there. But that's fundamentally a distraction. 1/ Let's recap what happened. (I may not have this quite right.)

1. Ian said that Elon told him some things. I think he said he has emails. Have they been released?

2. Elon said that Ian is lying.

That's what has happened so far to spawn a million tweets. 2/
Oct 11, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
There are a lot of guys - yes, guys - who are accustomed to sharing their "expertise" with their buddies in the bar. Now they're on social media, reducing the signal to noise ratio. 1/ They've messed up the messaging on the pandemic, and now they're spreading disinformation - I won't use the more charitable "misinformation" - on nuclear war.

Hey! They've watched "Terminator II"! 2/
Oct 1, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
A public statement of 'If you do X, then we will do Y" limits the possible actions. It is a bad idea in this case, because we don't know (and Washington probably doesn't know) what actions Putin is likely to take with regard to nuclear weapons. 1/ We can look back to Barack Obama's "red line" statement in response to chemical weapon attacks in Syria. He had guts enough to take up the offer of disarming the Syrian government of its chemical weapons, even though that was not the public proclamation. 2/
Sep 30, 2022 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
The repetition indicates that this is an important point to him. Whether he believes it or not - and I suspect he believes it - he's been acting on it. This is another Putin theme: "The West" has dominated the world, and it's time for a change. "The West" has made a victim of Russia.

The victim talk is a lot like what we hear from Republicans.
Sep 29, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
So much wrong with this tweet. No, I'm not going to read the article.

WILLIAM ARKIN WANTS MOAR NUKE-RATTLING, DAMMIT JOE! Tweet by William M. Arkin, ... The military is under civilian command. Let's leave it that way.

Anonymous sources will say anything to their bar buddies. How many did he talk to? How representative are they of "the military"?
Sep 18, 2022 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
@TomLevenson Let me try a different frame. I think there's a lot to what you say, and Jay Rosen has done a lot to bring attention to a problem that Leonhardt typifies. But looking at things from other directions can help. 1/ @TomLevenson Leonhardt is a successful middle-aged white man of comfortable means. He sees everything through that lens. What makes him comfortable, what doesn't.

This is such a male prerogative. It is why many get married, and what they believe the function of marriage to be. 2/