Lots of people asking about Scotland's climate targets today (understandably).

We won't comment before we see what the Scottish Government is planning, but our position on the 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿2030 target is already very clear. It was in two key bits of advice, published already.
🧵 In 2019, we advised it was time to set a new Net Zero target for 2045 in Scotland. We said that we would look at the detailed path to that target once it was made law.
On that basis, we suggested a 'straight-line' path to Net Zero was the best holding position.

The curious case of a misleading story in the Sunday Telegraph and how it is being pushed towards becoming accepted truth.

Our good friends in Net Zero Watch seem determined to turn this into an ongoing story, so it’s time to debunk.
🧵

https://twitter.com/drsimevans/status/1749037176224965083

@DrSimEvans called this “highly misleading” on Sunday. That’s charitable.

I won’t link to it - it’s paywalled and it’s a nasty piece. But it’s a story comparing our recent work on the 2035 GB power system with a study by the Royal Society on long duration energy storage in 2050.

Just published
📣

New @theCCCuk snapshot assessment of the impact of recent climate announcements over an eventful few months.

The PM made a speech on Net Zero. We’ve looked at that - but there were other developments, which we’ve considered too.
🧵

theccc.org.uk/2023/10/12/ccc… Inevitably, there will be most interest in the impacts of the PM’s speech on 20 Sept. I’ll come to that, but there have been other developments over the last couple of months - possibly even more impactful than the policy changes announced by the PM…

Today we publish @theCCCuk annual report on progress in reducing UK emissions.

We reflect on policy progress in a year that brought the UK’s first recorded 40C day and spiralling fossil fuel costs.

And there’s a reality check on the acceleration needed for 2030 and beyond.
🧵 Full report and our launch video to summarise the report:
theccc.org.uk/publication/20…

We've been looking at the material published yesterday by the Government.

This is the key document. It provides the transparency that the High Court demanded from the Government in last year's Judicial Review of the Net Zero Strategy.

@theCCCuk
gov.uk/government/pub… Also published, a technical annex with detail on
- emissions modelling of policies and proposals
- the baseline used in calculating these
- other uncertainties , including fascinating stuff on cost of technology, tipping points in adoption etc.

gov.uk/government/pub…

Today the government publishes “Powering up Britain” - which acts as a fairly substantial update to the Net Zero Strategy, published a couple of years ago. A host of other docs are also published today.

A 🧵 on how the government handles these things.

gov.uk/government/pub… We had hoped to offer a reaction to today’s announcements, but we don’t feel we have sufficient material to do so this morning.

Last year Ministers lost in the High Court - on the legality of the Net Zero Strategy - our evidence was cited extensively.

Today we publish our report on a reliable, resilient and decarbonised power system - over a year in the making @theCCCuk

We set out to answer the question: “can we rely on an electricity system based mainly on variable renewables?”

Yes, you really can
theccc.org.uk/publication/de…
🧵 @theCCCuk has always recommended decarbonising our power supply, because electricity is so central to the economy.

Achieving it opens a simple message to British people and business “go electric - it’s zero carbon”.

We recommended 2035 as the date to aim for.
Government agreed.

Incredible to say it, but we are discussing the consent of a new deep coal mine in the UK, despite all that has been said in recent years about the phase out coal.

This is a very bad decision – supporting a technology of the past, with a very poor prospectus for new UK jobs. Phasing out coal use is the clearest requirement of the global effort towards Net Zero. The Secretary of State’s decision will have implications beyond the UK’s borders.

This was our previous advice.

theccc.org.uk/publication/le…

The cold has definitely arrived and thoughts are on the cost of energy. We’ve taken a look at last month’s Autumn statement, which (finally) brought HMT to support a new package of policies on energy efficiency and energy demand.

How does it stack up?

🧵 (with new charts) The Autumn Statement put a welcome focus on energy efficiency to lower energy bills and reduce emissions.

The previous incarnation of government found it strangely hard to discuss energy waste, while mainland Europe made it a big focus during this crisis.

Mistake: corrected.

So let's talk about offsetting. 🧵

Today, @theCCCuk publish a new report on 'voluntary carbon markets' - markets where carbon credits are purchased (usually by businesses) voluntarily.
theccc.org.uk/publication/vo… In recent years, we've seen a notable increase in the use of offsets by businesses, many of which are pursuing a Net Zero goal for their business.

Good, right?

Blue Carbon is a topic that comes up again and again in questions to @theCCCuk. I’ve regularly had to say “we’re looking into it” when asked (especially by the tenacious @claudiabeamish).

So I’m very pleased to publish this brief on Blue Carbon.
theccc.org.uk/publication/br… ‘Blue Carbon’ is the carbon stored in marine and coastal ecosystems, which can be managed to contribute to reducing the UK’s emissions.

It’s occasionally held up as a major gap in the story of the natural environment’s role in achieving Net Zero in the UK. But is it a major gap?

Is Scotland climate ready? The @theCCCUK assessment of Scotland's progress in adapting to changes in the climate is out today.

We took a look at how resilient Scotland’s people and ecosystems are to climate change. And the state of Scottish policy.
theccc.org.uk/publication/is… Scotland's climate has already changed. The average temperature is now around 0.5°C warmer than it was 30 years ago. Sea levels are rising around the Scottish coast. Rainfall has increased over Scotland, with an increasing proportion of rainfall coming from heavy rainfall events.

Today we publish an assessment of the UK Government’s Heat and Buildings Strategy.

With the shocking oil and gas price spike this is suddenly one of the most important consumer issues - most homes and offices are currently heated with fossil fuels.

theccc.org.uk/publication/in… The Heat and Buildings Strategy (HABS) and Net Zero Strategy are a step-change in the UK approach.

Previously the focus was on how the UK could reach Net Zero. Now the focus is on really delivering that change.

And unhooking the UK from fossil fuels now has wider importance.

We've written to @beisgovuk on their 'Climate Compatibility Checkpoint' for oil and gas licensing.

theccc.org.uk/publication/le…
Short(ish) version in this thread. The proposed checkpoint is too narrow. We’d support tighter limits on production, with a presumption against exploration.
An end to UK exploration would send a clear signal of the UK's commitment to 1.5C.
But we recognise there are broader issues here, outside of the CCC's remit.

Here's our assessment of #COP26 and the Glasgow Climate Pact.

theccc.org.uk/publication/co…

We've taken a global outlook and considered the implications for the UK.

After Glasgow, there are important new considerations for UK climate policy. The UK must not walk away now.
@theCCCuk COP26 is clearly a step forward. Equally clearly, it didn't halt climate change.

A realistic assessment is that the UN process is making progress, but not enough (yet). How far COP26 can be considered a success depends on actions in the next year and beyond, in response to it.

Just published, our independent assessment of the UK's new Net Zero strategy.

bit.ly/3vJnNIV

Overall, we see this as a big step forward. It’s ambitious and broad in scope, with credible mechanisms to drive delivery and scale up private investment.
@theCCCuk Until now, only @theCCCuk had offered an advisory path(s) to Net Zero. But the Climate Change Act says it's the responsibility of government to make a plan to meet the legal targets set by Parliament. Now we have the Government's *own* plan for meeting the UK's emissions targets.

This is drivel from the Sunday Telegraph, who have spent the last two weeks trying to argue that we’d made a glaring mistake in our Net Zero report from 2019.

In reality we are meticulous. And the economy costs of electric vehicles have fallen since 2019.
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/… The first question a reasonable person might ask is “why would @theCCCuk try to hide the cost?”. We’ve never done so before, and exposing the costs of decarbonisation in some areas is an important part of finding the right strategy to tackle those costs and bring them down.

A powerful leader in today’s Times. Gets across the key message from yesterday’s @theCCCuk Progress Reports: Government must get real on achieving the UK's legal climate targets.

But we need to talk about this “ruinously expensive” Net Zero stuff.

Thread – with some new charts. Net Zero is not ruinously expensive. Certainly not as a proportion of the size of the whole economy.

Conservatively, we estimate that the 'costs' of Net Zero – across a range of scenarios – are less than 1% of GDP each year.

But what does that mean? Let’s build up the picture.

The @bankofengland have published details of the climate stress test they'll conduct to assess the resilience of the UK financial system to climate risks.

Worth a look - it's really clear.

bankofengland.co.uk/stress-testing… The scenarios are designed to represent future paths for global climate action over 2021–50:
- early global action
- late action
- no further action

They consider two aspects of risk: the physical risks (from climate change) and the transition risks (of decarbonisation).

Setting the UK's Sixth Carbon Budget (2033-37) in law is a huge moment. A 78% reduction in territorial emissions between 1990 and 2035.

Until 2019 the UK's 2050 target was an 80% reduction. It has effectively been brought forward by 15 years.

That's the implication of #NetZero. @theCCCuk recommendations on the Sixth Carbon Budget, the 2030 NDC and, crucially, the inclusion of international aviation and shipping to the UK target framework - have been accepted in full.

Credit to Ministers for agreeing it (after a serious Cabinet discussion I heard).

Last year, we recommended that @hmtreasury undertake a review of how Net Zero will be funded. Very pleased that they accepted that invitation.

We've now got their interim report - the final report will be next Spring probably.
gov.uk/government/pub…

Quick thread... You may have heard me bigging up this review, because it's essential that @hmtreasury looks at the question of 'who pays?' for Net Zero.

Our new analysis says the aggregate cost is likely to be low, but that masks a policy challenge to distribute the costs and benefits fairly.