There is a potential trigger for the Indian shrimp sector looming in the next year.

The United States is considering import duties on four countries: India, Ecuador, Indonesia and Vietnam.

The fine print is extremely important, and could mark an end to the downcycle.

A thread. Background:

Ecuador has undercut the market significantly, selling shrimp 15-20% cheaper than India. This has allowed them to gain a significant market share in shrimp over the last two years.

(See multiple posts from @theHarshFolio and @Tijori1 highlighting this)

2/z

Caplin Steriles is just simple enough to provide a case study on what an injectables portfolio looks like.

Insights like these are often in expensive market research reports, but I think it's better shared publicly.

Here's a data backed look into their growth strategy.

1/11 Caplin Point invested in their injectable plant in 2014, and launched their first molecule Ketorolac, around 2018.

Their strategy is to sell B2B to US pharma businesses.

Ketorolac is quite a large molecule, at $25 million, and Gland controls almost all of the market share.

2/

I had a conversation with the founder of PropEquity last week.

Companies listed on the SME index often have little to no information about them, and almost everything is found through scuttlebutt.

A window into the business, and the nascent Prop Tech industry.

1/ PropEquity's main offering is a data analytics database that captures nuanced granular information on the real estate market.

Example below:

2/

On Deepak Fert's concall. Focus is now on better end use for products.

• Solar / steel grade nitric acid.

• Medical wipes for IPA.

• Total cost of operations for entire mines, not just TAN.

Q2 will be a soft quarter seasonally. No guidance for H2, depends on spreads.

1/ On the 500 Cr. tax question, is a particular change in norms for depreciation / goodwill.

They believe it is entirely legal based on precedent in courts, and are prepared.

At worst case, will need a 20% deposit of around 110 Cr. before it's heard in court.

2/

Currently studying a company that has numbers so ugly on Screener that not many will look further.

At 1.3x sales, I find the valuations very attractive for a luxury brand retailer, with an e-commerce platform to boot.

A high level introduction to Arvind Fashions.

1/ Disclaimer:

I'm not invested in this company, but I'm evaluating the opportunity.

Summary:
• Presence in very strong premium brands.
• Encouraging traction in e-commerce website, and focus on D2C.
• Cheap starting valuations, and improving return metrics.

2/

Don't let FOMO drive your investment decisions.

A short thread on the volatility behind Deepak Fert's amazing results.

1/ The star of this show is Technical Ammonium Nitrate, which probably contributed more than 60% of the profits this quarter.

To show you just how cyclical this is, I present two data points on prices. One on general ammonium nitrate prices in the UK, and one on TAN from IIFL.

2/

For my companies, I am constantly searching for data to better understand them.

Today I would like to present my biggest and best finding so far in 2022:

An enormous tender that Krsnaa Diagnostics has bid for. It can potentially generate >200 Cr. should they win the bid.

1/ Context: Krsnaa Diagnostics bids for PPP tenders, and I was looking to see if I can map out the landscape of tenders currently floated by different governments.

In studying Rajasthan, where they won a contract very recently, I found this large deal in the works.

2/

𝐼𝑡 𝑑𝑖𝑑𝑛'𝑡 𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑡𝑜 𝑚𝑒 𝑖𝑓 𝐼 𝑜𝑤𝑛𝑒𝑑 3%, 10%, 𝑜𝑟 20%. 𝐼 𝑤𝑎𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑡𝑜 𝑏𝑢𝑖𝑙𝑑 𝑎𝑛 𝑖𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑡𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑎𝑠𝑡𝑠 𝑏𝑒𝑦𝑜𝑛𝑑 𝑚𝑒. 𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝐻𝐷𝐹𝐶 𝐵𝑎𝑛𝑘 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑆𝑀𝐸 𝑙𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔.

Notes below

https://twitter.com/thepodiumIn/status/1548949195209732097

Nice story of Mr. Nath's journey of raising 950 Cr. in 2016. Took 3 years from the fund raise, identifying the right SPAC, and SEBI/RBI approval.

He heard a NO one hundred and twenty one times before the fund raise was successful.

2/

Deepak Fertilizer saw six years of pain for it's NPK division. Margins that were normally around 10% vanished for more than half a decade.

A thread on India's history with urea based fertilizers and Deepak Fert's complete transformation.

Guest starring Mr. Vijay Mallya.

1/ Some important terminology. Fertilizers are classified by the three key nutrients present within them:

𝐍itrogen
𝐏hosphorus
Potassium (Latin: 𝐊alium)

NPK.

3 numbers, eg: 46-0-0, tell us the proportion of nutrients present. Here, 46% nitrogen and 0% of the other two.

2/

Deepak Nitrite has become a market darling over the last years, but how much do you know about its sister company?

Despite the name, only 10% of Deepak Fertilizer's profits come from fertilizers.

A short thread on why the company is actually a proxy play on infra.

1/14 In this thread:

• Why Deepak Fert is an explosives company.

• Competitive landscape.

• Why they've taken on two enormous capex projects.

• Antithesis pointers.

Disclosure: invested from lower levels, no transactions in 6 months.

2/14

Many IPOs from last year were rightly ignored by seasoned investors due to obscene valuations.

Have been revisiting this space as valuations have since cooled.

What companies do you think have been overlooked since listing? Sharing three I'm currently studying below: 1. Sigachi Industries - The active ingredient in tablets we consume often forms a small portion of the overall tablet. The rest is made out of excipients, which aids in drug delivery and stability. This is what Sigachi makes.

In 2018, the RBI introduced a framework for banks and NBFCs to join hands and lend to the MSME sector.

Today I want to talk about a listed fintech startup that is sculpting the landscape for co-lending in India.

This is an introduction to Ugro Capital, my largest holding.

1/ In this thread I will cover -

• MSME financing and credit gap.

• Co-lending framework and value proposition.

• Ugro's inception and Religare history.

• Why FY23 will make or break the thesis.

• Antithesis and quantum of risk.

2/

The question I've been asked a lot recently is how one is confident of Krsnaa being competitive in the diagnostics landscape with new entrants.

It's clear why media talk is centered around 1mg and Healthians. Prices (pulled from their websites) are much lower than incumbents. However, 1mg's prices don't look as appealing if one adds Krsnaa's price offerings into the mix:

If we're calling new entrants 1mg disruptors because of prices, that label also belongs to Krsnaa.

PDS Limited, the second biggest position in my portfolio.

An under-owned, 40% RoCE, negative working capital company available at cheap starting valuations.

They have a rich story spanning twenty years, and form a play on fashion outsourcing. A mega thread. Fast fashion retailers like Zara or Mango are famous for their wide range of apparel. Behind the scenes, there is a complex supply chain responsible for each piece of clothing reaching a store or warehouse.

2/