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1/ The election ended 3 weeks ago. Enough time has passed.

We -- or I -- can now safely pronounce that the Tim Walz VP pick was a dud.

Let me explain: 2/ Before I get into it, let me say two things.

One: Tim Walz did not lose Harris the race (or even close to it)

Two: Josh Shapiro would not have made Harris win -- or even win Pennsylvania.

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1/ I've been posting charts/graphs/maps that I think tell the story of the election (and where we are headed) over the last week.

Decided to put them all in a single place.

You can see all 15 for FREE! Link in my bio!

Let's go through them: 2/ Donald Trump won 33% of non-white voters

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1/ I asked a prominent D strategist to help me diagnose what went so wrong for Kamala Harris and what the party needs now.

He wrote an incredible autopsy.

You can read it for FREE. Link in my bio.

A few key thoughts from it: 2/ It all began on March 14, 2020 -- when Biden, in a debate with Bernie Sanders -- pledged he would pick a woman to be his VP.

As the strategist wrote: "With this transactional appeal to the progressive left, Biden traded his responsibility to choose the most qualified potential heir for, instead, a smoother path to the nomination that was likely his before the promise was even made."

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1/ Kamala Harris stepped in 💩 today.

In an interview with @TheView, she was asked if she would have done ANYTHING different than Joe Biden.

She said: "There is not a thing that comes to mind"

WHOOPS. 2/ Remember that Biden's approval rating has been in the high 30s or low 40s for 18 months straight.

And that a majority of the public does not approve of how he has handled issues like immigration or the economy.

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1/ The more I look at the electoral map, the more I am convinced that the election comes down to MI, PA and WI.

If Harris wins all three, she is president -- no matter what happens in AZ, GA, NV or NC.

But... 2/ If she loses any ONE of those Blue Wall states, her path gets much harder.

Like, if she loses WI, she would then need GA, NC or AZ to win.

If she loses PA she would need two of GA, NC and AZ or one of them + NV

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1/ I didn't really *get* the Tim Walz thing before last night.

I knew of him when he was a Congressman. And when he got elected governor.

But the political world never touted him as a rising star. Not "someone to watch."

So, I underestimated him... 2/ When Kamala Harris picked Walz, I thought it was a mistake.

Josh Shapiro made much more sense in terms of raw political considerations.

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1/ I wanted to distill my thoughts on Kamala Harris’ no-media strategy into a single piece.

The essence: Democrats are engaged in a massive game of whataboutism on the issue. Harris should talk to the media because it’s the right thing to do for democracy.

Let me explain. 2/ The first response from any Democrat when you mention the fact that Harris has done ZERO media interviews and held ZERO press conferences as the presidential nominee is something like:Trump is way worse!

They note, rightly, that Trump has worked to undermine the press. That he mostly gives interviews to friendly outlets. And that he lies all the time.

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1/ If I told you that:

* The incumbent president’s approval rating has been stuck in the high 30s for more than a year

* The Democratic presidential nominee has been vice president for the last 3+ years

* The two most important issues to voters are immigration and the economy — and polls suggest that on both of those more people trust the Republican nominee than the Democratic administration to effectively handle them

* Two thirds of the voting public believe the country is headed off on the wrong track

* Republicans have a larger electoral college advantage — solely based on the political underpinnings of the map — than at any time in the last 25 years

* The Republican nominee survived an assassination attempt

Who would you say was going to win the election? 2/ The answer is, of course, the Republican. Because the political environment on almost every measure points you in that direction.

And yet, Donald Trump is, at best, an even-money bet to beat Kamala Harris this fall.

Which is evidence of just how weak a candidate he is

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1/ I have been tweeting a bunch this week about how Kamala Harris continues to almost entirely ignore the media. (She took a few questions yesterday for the 1st time since emerging as the nominee.)

I decided to write something longer about it.

A few reflections: 2/ The facts are these: a) Harris has been the de facto nominee for 3 weeks b) she has taken less than 5 total questions from the media during that time c) she has not sat for ANY media interviews and d) she has not held any sort of press conference

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1/ We will know Kamala Harris' VP pick in the next 12-18 hours.

By the numbers, the pick should be a no-brainer: Josh Shapiro makes BY FAR the most electoral sense.

Consider: 2/ Harris almost certainly HAS to win Pennsylvania. You can make the case for her to get to 270 electoral votes without it. But it’s a very TOUGH case to make.

There’s no other swing state – not Arizona, not Michigan, not Wisconsin – with that same sort of power of Harris’ electoral prospects.

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An adviser to Kamala Harris told @playbookdc that "the Midwest is not where the opportunity is for her...The opportunity with her … is going to be Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania."

Which 👀

I went through a bunch of map scenarios.

Here's a few: 1/ If Harris can make Georgia and North Carolina -- both states with large black populations into toss ups, the map starts basically even between she and Trump:

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The last few days have revealed a NUMBER of very scary facts for Joe Biden.

I picked out 8. Let's go through them: 1) Biden’s inner circle appears to have shrunk to his wife, his son and his sister. Never a good sign.

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Donald Trump held a campaign rally for the first time in 10 days last night.

I went through it -- line by line.

It was, well, something else.

A few key quotes: “Look at that lake. Isn't it beautiful? [It’s] on one of the greatest golf courses on Earth.”

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Just went through the full transcript of Joe Biden on @Morning_Joe this AM.

Overall takeaway: He is absolutely DARING the party to try to get rid of him. Positively Trumpian about his crowd sizes -- and what that means. Defiant bordering on arrogant.

A few key quotes: “I haven't read any reporting they did today. But the fact is that, you know, I think they'd have to acknowledge, we had large crowds, enthusiastic crowds.”

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There are 2 paragraphs in a story that NBC posted last night that should scare the hell out of Democrats hoping Joe Biden can make it through this current moment.

Here they are: Uh, what?

Dunn and Bauer are COMPLETELY correct. Hunter Biden absolutely should have kept a lower profile when it came to his legal troubles.

And he should be keeping a lower profile now too -- in the wake of his felony gun conviction.

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Donald Trump spoke for an hour -- with NO teleprompters -- in Las Vegas on Sunday.

I went through the entire transcript of his speech LINE BY LINE.

Here are a few lines you NEED to see: “And if anybody goes down, if you start going down, we have people, they'll pick you up right away. They'll throw water.”

“Everybody was so worried yesterday about you. And they never mentioned me. I'm up here sweating like a dog”

Four years ago today was one of the worst moments of Donald Trump's four years in office: He suggested using bright lights or disinfectant injected into the body to combat Covid-19.

His supporters argue that the pandemic wasn't his fault. Obviously true! But... 1) Trump repeatedly downplayed the threat Covid posed to the U.S., insisting that it wouldn’t come to the U.S. in the first place and then suggesting the pandemic would be over by Easter.

2) Trump repeatedly and publicly questioned the efficacy of masks for preventing the spread of the virus — and refused to wear one.

I've been thinking a lot about why the latest surge has hit me so hard and I think it's because I have been fooling myself -- to some extent -- for the last 18 months 🧵 I told myself that the reason to get vaccinated (and boosted) was a) to avoid serious illness if I got Covid and b) to keep myself from passing the virus along to my mom (and other more vulnerable people)