Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Christian Kopf Profile picture
Christian Kopf
@ChristianKopf
Head of Fixed Income at an asset management firm. Tweeting in personal capacity only.
Oct 27, 2023 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
Here’s a belated recap of the IMF Annual Meetings in Marrakech: eight surprises – or rather: lost illusions – and three consequences. Image 1. A positive surprise: Turkey may exit the vortex of hyperinflation, devaluation and instability, as Erdogan turns from Berat Albayrak to his other son-in-law Selçuk “Elon” Bayraktar and tolerates more sensible economic policies. The new technocrats put on a brilliant show. Image
Oct 16, 2022 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
A couple of surprising take-aways from this year’s @IMFNews Annual Meetings, to complement @RobinBrooksIIF’s excellent summary (1/12) Ukraine’s macro is surprisingly stable. C/A in surplus, grain export will provide extra $ 10 bn in annual revenues. FX deposit rates at zero. Budget deficit only $ 3 bn per month, 40% less than exp. Banks’ loan-to-deposit ratio has fallen from above 200% to less than 70% (2/12)
Aug 22, 2022 • 9 tweets • 5 min read
By the end of this week, the school holidays end in 11 of Germany’s 16 federal states. For readers from abroad, here’s a layman’s take on the political mood in Germany as the summer lull draws to a close. [1/9] Two issues are on most people’s mind. First, the massive rise in energy prices, mainly caused by curbed gas supplies from Russia – @JamesEagle17 has aptly illustrated the consequences on German households (on LinkedIn, linkedin.com/posts/jameseag…). [2/9]
Mar 21, 2022 • 12 tweets • 10 min read
Should the EU curtail payments on fossil fuel imports from Russia? And are tariffs the best instrument? Within Germany, the tone of this debate is shifting. (1/11) The issues are laid out in a 🇩🇪 🧵 by @GrimmVeronika, member of the German Council of Economic Experts . Leading journalists are calling for action: Gerald Braunberger (@faznet) and @MarcBeise (@sz) . (2/11)
Mar 20, 2022 • 14 tweets • 8 min read
This 🧵discusses the findings of a recent policy brief by @BachmannRudi, @DBaqaee, @kuhnmo, @ben_moll, @MSchularick and others (quoted as BKMS) 👇on the effect of a stop of energy imports from Russia on the German economy. (1/14) The analysis presented in this paper has been lauded by @paulkrugman (nytimes.com/2022/03/15/opi…) and has even inspired an online petition by an anonymous group (). (2/14)
Mar 13, 2022 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
In an article for @zeitonline, leading Germany economist @MFratzscher – typically a voice of reason – argues against a gas embargo because "Russia currently does not receive our payments for gas imports anyway, as they are in euros or US dollars". Is this view correct? [1/10] I have no inside knowledge on this matter, but publicly available information paints the following picture: If you fill up your tank at a random petrol station in Berlin, there's a 9 in 10 chance that the diesel is supplied by the PCK refinery in Schwedt. [2/10]
Mar 13, 2022 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
What would be the impact of an embargo on Russian exports? Which goods is Russia buying with its export revenues? And which countries are supplying those goods? [1/n] We know from @OECtoday that Russia is mainly exporting mineral products (60% of total exports) and metals (10% of total exports), and is importing almost all industrial goods oec.world/en/profile/cou… [2/n]