The Ukrainian effort to liberate the rest of their country will begin very soon. When it does, the area of greatest risk will not be the minefields but the nuclear power plant that Putin holds hostage. thedailybeast.com/ukraines-ticki… The risk is not of a nuclear explosion like Hiroshima. The danger comes from the thousands of fuel rods at the plant that could melt down, releasing hydrogen gas that then explodes, spewing radioactive particles in plumes that could travel hundreds or even thousands of miles.

🧵 Few predicted eight months ago, as Russia began pounding the small Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, that it would still be standing today. Or that Russia would have taken 30,000 casualties but not the city. A most improbable Ukrainian victory may be near.
joecirincione.substack.com/p/bakhmut-stil… While it is still possible that Russian forces can take the city, @carlottagall @nytimes reported on March 30 that Ukrainian commanders in Bakhmut are “quietly confident they had turned the tide against Russian troops trying to encircle and capture it.” nytimes.com/2023/03/30/wor…

My Washington Post subscription allows me to share access to this very important article. You may understand the fault lines in the national security debates, but you also may be out of date. I urge you to read this new reporting.

Read here: wapo.st/3JKSiqD "In 2014, the network of conservative groups led by billionaire industrialist Charles Koch expanded investments in foreign policy, setting up think tanks, advocacy groups and activist organizations that built an intellectual case for a more restrained approach to foreign affairs"

Let's break down what Putin's announcement that he is "suspending" compliance with the New START treaty means. The accord limits the US and Russia to 1,550 operationally deployed strategic weapons. It runs thru 2026 and is the last remaining strategic arms control treaty. First, this is a major violation of the treaty. There is no provision for "suspending" compliance with the treaty. It formalizes Russia's existing noncompliance with the treaty: they have refused to allow inspections of their weapons as mandated by the treaty.

STOP WHAT YOU ARE DOING and read Eric Schlosser's brilliant new analysis. He is dead on. The greatest nuclear threat we face is not that nuclear weapons will be used in Ukraine -- it is that Russia's threat to use them will succeed in deterring the West. theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/… Here is a short excerpt of the arguments against more aid to Ukraine that he's says (and I agree) "are based on lies." You can add your own favorite members of the "restraint" camp and the MAGA right to this list.

If Twitter is indeed crashing, I want my last tweets to be supporting Ukraine and exposing those who provide cover for his genocidal war. Specifically the “realist” and “restrainers.”

In @IChotiner’s interview, John Mearsheimer repeats his claims of Putin’s benign intentions. Specifically, that Putin had no intention of occupying Ukraine. He was merely engaged in preventive actions forced upon him by a belligerent United States. newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/j…

🧵I thought we were done with the CPC Letter Debacle, but those responsible for the mess are casting themselves as the victims of anti-diplomacy group think. Nonsense. This was not an anodyne letter simply promoting talks but an effort to impose concessions on Ukraine. It failed. The confusion is understandable. The letter was an mishmash of contradictory positions, obsolete information, and quotes cherry-picked to make a case, not present an accurate analysis. Some can pick out benign comments to claim it was all an innocent push for diplomacy.

🧵 Like me, you may have noticed the sudden influx of inflammatory, anti-Ukraine tweets over the past few months, often generated by people with hundreds of thousands of followers but little foreign policy experience. I couldn’t understand their attacks on experts, until now. A colleague, seeing the recent attacks on me, warned that trying to engage them “with a genuine, good faith intellectual approach usually leads to disaster.” They don’t care about policy, he said. They have “the sole objective of maximizing nihilist engagement on Twitter.”

🧵A Failure to Review Our Nuclear Posture🧵

President Biden has passed on his best chance to operationalize his stated goal of reducing the role of 5,400 nuclear weapons in U.S. security policy with the public release today of the Nuclear Posture Review.
media.defense.gov/2022/Oct/27/20… Joe Biden is now the fourteenth president over eight decades to attempt to reconcile the risks that derive from nuclear deployments with the demands of deterrence. He is discovering how difficult this can be.

Has anyone noticed the letter sent by 30 Democrats today seems to have been written months ago?

"Russia’s recent seizure of cities in Ukraine’s east have led to the most pivotal moment in the conflict." That was in Spring. Since then Ukrainians have liberated many of them. 1/ It warns of "the consolidation of Russian control over roughly 20 percent of Ukraine’s territory.” But Russia doesn't fully control any of the four provinces it illegal annexed, is retreated across most of the front and will soon lose Kherson. 2/

🧵On McCarthyism, Fascism and Twitter🧵

On Friday, I tweeted out a story documenting the growing pro-Putin faction in the MAGA GOP. It struck a nerve. I was immediately swarmed by propagandists who attacked me for "McCarthyism." Here are some samples. The article I sent out, by @djrothkopf, is excellent. Well, sourced, factual and many people agree with his analysis. That may be why the attack is so fierce. And why the specter of a new McCarthyism is used to smear any who criticize pro-Putin factions. thedailybeast.com/putins-last-ho…

On Putin's Drone Strikes. More excerpts from by talk with @jeffpeguescbs. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ame…

"We should recognize this is a war crime. For over 100 years it is been against international law to deliberately target civilian civilian infrastructure." "Putin is attacking Ukrainian cities in an unusual way. He's already exhausted about 70% of his supply of long -range precision strike weapons. So, he's turning to Iran. They are supplying Shahid-136 drones, with an 80 lb warhead and range of over 1000 miles."

I'm virtually attending a @CFR_org session with @SenJackReed in conversation with @missy_ryan. Glad to hear Sen. Reed in his opening remarks state clearly that our international standing is based on our domestic health - and our domestic institutions are under stress and attack. Reed notes lessons Xi may draw from the Ukraine War: 1) Military operations look easier on the drawing board; 2) Are his commanders as poor as Russia's? 3) The world reaction to Putin's invasion is formidable. All these must give him pause when it comes to his Taiwan intentions.

🧵I want to end the week with some of the analysis that @chrislhayes and I did on his show, @allinwithchris, this Friday night. I got quite a bit of positive feedback from people and suggestions that I write it up. So here we go. We started with Pres. Biden’s comments and Chris cites my WashPost article. “What do you think, Joe, of the President saying that this is the most imminent threat of nuclear weapons deployment since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis?" washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/…

🧵I do a lot of research for every article I write. I thought I’d provide this “bibliography” of 16 sources used for my recent article @washingtonpost in case it might be useful to teachers, professors, students or anyone else. washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/… 1. On U.S. preparations for Putin’s first use of a nuclear weapon from @SangerNYT, @EricSchmittNYT, @helenecooper & @julianbarnes. nytimes.com/2022/03/23/us/…

In response to my tweet, below, @BH_Friedman, defending the piece, asked, "What in the article do you see as belittling Ukraine or excusing Russian behavior?" I am happy to respond. Ben is policy director of @defpriorities, a "realist and restraint" group.
This 🧵should suffice.

https://twitter.com/Cirincione/status/1572033101899137024

First, I don't know the author and bear him no ill will. This is not personal. It's an analysis of what's wrong with a methodology that permeates the "realist" camp and weakens the restraint case.

First, he belittles the Ukrainian military victories and mocks other analysts.

This is a new statement but not a new capability. Iranian officials are simply stating what has been true for some time: Iran is capable of building a nuclear bomb but does not intend to do so…for multiple reasons. reuters.com/world/middle-e… I just told @cbsradio News that Iran is a nuclear threshold state with the three capabilities needed to make a nuclear weapon:

1. Material. Iran has enriched uranium that they could enrich further for the core of one bomb. It would take a few weeks.

Seventy-seven years ago today, we exploded the first atomic bomb. The scientists who built it tried to warn us of its dangers, tried to convince the military not to use it. Here are my reflections on the threat from 15 years go. Sadly, still relevant. americanprogress.org/article/atomic… I wrote: "The scientists who built the weapons had warned President Harry Truman of what would happen after the attacks.

This Monday, I recorded a wonderful discussion with @BillPressPod. We went through 5 scenarios for Russian use of nuclear weapons and what the US response should be. Please listen to the show. I outline the scenarios in this thread. 1/ bit.ly/3jCewLV We first cleared up confusion of what is a "tactical nuclear weapon." It largely defined by where it is used, not by its yield. It is a weapon used on the battlefield or in a particular region. It can be as large as strategic weapons. Russian weapons are 10-110 Kilotons. 2/

<THREAD> In her passionately argued article today, @EvelynNFarkas says that Russia's "military doctrine includes a lower threshold than NATO’s for the use of nuclear weapons."

This is a common mistake. In fact, US and Russian doctrines are very similar. 1/ Both countries have about 6,000 nuclear weapons in their possession. Both integrate nuclear weapons into conventional war plans. Both include nuclear options in military exercises. Both allow, even encourage, the first use of nuclear weapons in conventional wars. 2/

May I humbly suggest that President Biden pull back the Nuclear Posture Review prepared by the Pentagon. It is already a deeply flawed document. The war in Ukraine is demonstrating the failure of the policies it advocates, the programs it advances. The Ukraine War should clarify to policy makers and the publics that our nuclear posture and assumptions have failed. They were supposed to prevent wars like the one in Ukraine, prevent increased nuclear risks like the ones that now frighten us.