Short thread on recent Ionnidis paper claiming fairly low IFR for COVID in under <60 yr olds. Much less wrong than previous Ionnidis papers but still likely sig under est IFR by picking countries (poor, single party, …). Preprint ver of paper here medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
1/n First thing to note is countries w IFR below median in ⬇️ (from paper) contain many more questionable countries - v poor or one party state. Eg Laos (poor, one party), Afghanistan (duh?) and Nepal (v poor). Their ability/willingness to collect accurate data is likely low.

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Thread: CA is not being forthright abt their testing. On Sat CA “cleaned up” huge backlog (20 days) of unprocessed tests by moving them to tested. However, using COVID Tracking nums, they do not appear to have effectively tested them at all. cc: @alexismadrigal @noahpinion 1/n 1)The most tests CA has processed on any other day is about 3,000. And the positives have been consistently climbing from 600s per day to mid 1,000s. 4/4 for new positive was exactly in trend, despite “processing” 20x as many tests. 2/n

Short thread on trade of (slowing economy down) vs (slowing COVID19) - and how to potentially minimize the economic damage while still keeping spread down. Singapore and China have dramatically slowed spread of disease via Social Distancing 1/n Social Distancing as implemented in China has had large impact on their economy (see recent PMI), but even Singapore has like incurred significant cost. So the question is what is the optimal Social Distancing - I.e. to maximize economy, while minimizing R0? 2/n