If you review America's annual freedom of navigation reports, you would see that the U.S. has been conducting a FONOP in India's EEZ every year as far back as the reports go. It's routine, even if you're just finding out about it for the first time.
policy.defense.gov/ousdp-offices/… I should have said *almost* every year.

Waking up to questions about U.S. freedom of navigation operations in the Indian Ocean.

Fortunately, I just wrote a 13,000 word Backgrounder (still in editing) titled, Fault Lines in Freedom of Navigation: China, India, and the US Navigate an Unsettled UNCLOS regime. [THREAD] The gist: India, like China and a *minority* of capitals, requires prior consent for military operations in its 200 nautical mile EEZ. The U.S. and a *vast majority* of world capitals do not recognize this right, which is *not* enshrined in UNCLOS.

Thread from this helpful article on the debate between Chinese hawks and doves on India policy.

"If China-India ties are damaged beyond repair, [the doves] warn, India alone or in association with other countries will cause 'endless trouble for China.'"
thehindu.com/opinion/lead/t… "China’s top [hardline] India watchers...believe that the present conflict is not an 'accident' but an 'inevitable result'...[of] India’s 'unending infrastructure arms race' at the LAC...Beijing was 'fed up' and 'had to teach India a lesson.'"

What I'd say to China if I were in Delhi:
If seizing the grey zone at Pangong was the cost we had to pay to see your true colors, to mobilize the country against you, it was worth it. Continuing to pretend you were a partner would've done even more harm to us over the long term. Many Indians will see this as a cop out, an American an ocean away urging us to cede our territory to the Chinese? Won't this run the risk of appeasement? Encourage more LAC adventures? It doesn't have to. (And there aren't great alternative options).

Good read by @graham_euan.
"That China persisted with such a bold and adversarial move during a global pandemic is indicative of...strategic opportunism...and its high tolerance for risk. It suggests Beijing cares little about China’s growing unpopularity"
iiss.org/blogs/analysis… "Late spring is the natural window for military operations to occur in the Himalayas. But 2020 presents a bigger window of opportunity in the sense that India is in the throes of an accelerating pandemic...as well as constraining international responses"

Analysis of some key points made by Yun Sun:
1) China feels Indian infrastructure near LAC violates prior agreements and attempts to take advantage of Chinese weakness during COVID-19. We see them as on India's side of the LAC. China may not (but still won't exchange maps). [1/n]

https://twitter.com/Cold_Peace_/status/1275816604622782466

2) Having built up infrastructure on its own side of the LAC, as part of the 13th Five Year Plan, China wants to "put an end to the infrastructure arms race." India's infrastructure has enabled "repeated incursions and changes to the status quo, and therefore needs to be stopped"

Lets take a deeper dive on Yun Sun's WOTR article on the Galwan-Pangong crisis. She does as good a job as any in trying to deconstruct China's thinking.

To start, she argues, as I have, that Indian infrastructure was the main cause for China's adventure. warontherocks.com/2020/06/chinas… "Tactically,China wants to put an end to the infrastructure arms race along the border...Chinese see Indian infrastructure development in the area from which China withdrew after the 1962 war as a consistent & repeated effort by Delhi that 'needs to be corrected every few years'”

Growing face-offs at the LAC "a direct outcome of India’s ability of increased patrolling in the area due to vastly improved infrastructure readiness."

"indicate greater ability on the part of Indian Army to monitor, detect and respond to[PLA]patrolling." m.hindustantimes.com/india-news/ind… "One of the first decisions of the [Modi] government was to issue a general approval in July 2014 for the creation of road network by Border Roads Organisation (BRO) within 100km of aerial distance from LAC."

"My analysis disproves some of the more extreme claims that have been made...such as that thousands of Chinese soldiers have crossed the LAC and encamped in Indian-controlled territory. The satellite pictures also highlight the obvious threats to a peaceful status quo"

https://twitter.com/Cold_Peace_/status/1273613471700135937

"The analysis includes evidence that strongly suggests Peoples’ Liberation Army forces have been regularly crossing into Indian territory temporarily on routine patrol routes."

Ashley Tellis: "In almost all cases, the Chinese penetrations are relatively shallow, on the order of 1–10 kms west of their routine operating areas. In fact, the new Chinese occupation likely has occurred within the limits of China’s own claim line."
carnegieendowment.org/2020/06/04/hus… "but precisely because this perimeter is disputed by India, New Delhi finds itself confronting fresh Chinese troops deployed on territories the Indian government has hitherto treated as its own."

"Clarifying perceptions of the LAC could help, but China has stalled the process. 'They are afraid the LAC will become the boundary,' Mr Bambawale said. 'we don’t have to negotiate one common line, but negotiate a line that they don’t cross, and another line that we don’t cross'"

https://twitter.com/ananthkrishnan/status/1262818447123087361

"On Monday, Chinese state media said the People’s Liberation Army was 'tightening control' in one of the flashpoints in Galwan Valley in the western sector, after it accused India of 'unilaterally' changing the status quo by 'illegal construction.'"

Tellis: China/India/US "triangular relationship contains two concurrent security competitions: one between China and India & the other between the US and China. Both pairs of rivalries persist simultaneously, and both date back roughly to the end of [WW2]"
carnegieendowment.org/2020/05/18/bet… India's "desire for a close relationship with Washington also coincides with the deep American interest in balancing China–if not containing it–as an emerging strategic competitor. The fates have thus brought US and Indian strategic goals into closer convergence than ever before"

THREAD-Some helpful tips for aspiring DC policy wonks.

[Be humble]. I get it: you were the smartest kid in your HS/hometown/college. That makes you the 12th smartest person in the room in DC. You have a lot to learn. Talk only when you must. Spend your first few years listening. [Network]. Not just traditional networking. Reach out to experts in your field. Send an email. Ask for 20 minutes of their time to grab a coffee and pick their brain. You'll be surprised. Most are happy to do so. Also, join groups like Young Professionals in Foreign Policy (YPFP)

Minister Jaishankar on the "Indian Way"

"It's NOT the India way to be a disruptionist power internationally. I think we should be a stabilizing power. I think there are already enough forces of disruption in the world. So somebody needs to make up a bit." "It's also not the India way to be self-centered, to be mercantilist. Therefore, it's important to be global, law-abiding, rule-based...it's important to be consultative."

"The India Way would be to be more of a decider or a shaper rather than an abstainer."

THREAD
POMPEO at India-U.S. 2+2: "Our common values of democracy, freedom, respect for the rule of law are a great foundation for our expanding partnership. They are the basis for my hope for a new age of ambition between our two democracies."

https://twitter.com/nktpnd/status/1207431854825054209

"We secured new agreements on space exploration and defense industrial collaboration. We agreed to establish a new exchange program for legislators from our two countries. We launched new initiatives to help secure internships for innovators in each of our two countries."

THREAD
A busy few weeks in India. I debated weighing in on CAB/NRC/UCC/370 (actually wrote 2 articles). Ultimately, I decided against it. I traditionally don't weigh in on domestic developments in India (or the U.S.), though I recognize the issues have gained int'l significance. Just as I don't look to India for intervention on U.S. detention policies at the border with Mexico, I don't think it's the U.S. government's role to insert itself in Indian policy debates on citizenship or federalism, whatever my personal opinion might be.

Important read from EAM Jaishankar on Kashmir/Art. 370:

"The anachronistic provision that governed Kashmir—Article 370—was explicitly acknowledged by the Indian constitution as 'temporary.' By any standards, 70 years is a long definition of that term."
ft.com/content/4f0e29… "created a cosy arrangement of local ownerships that served the state’s political elite well. But it denied economic opportunities & social gains...The resulting separatist sentiments in some quarters were then exploited by neighboring Pakistan to conduct cross-border terrorism."

Amrullah Saleh: "India's role in Afghanistan, with peace or without peace, will keep growing as India is growing itself, just as Afghanistan's vitality and viability as a partner with India is growing. We see a larger role...for India in Afghanistan in any scenario." [1/4]

https://twitter.com/LawrenceSellin/status/1168793533224013824

Taliban "are much weaker than in the 90s...leadership remains stagnant in old & outdated ideas and ideologies. Afghanistan has changed massively and the members of Taliban have not been able to see that change, realize that change; either adjust themselves or provide new message"

A GoT comment: Most of you were short-changed by last night's episode. Partly b/c you couldn't see it as the directors intended. Why?

1) HBO's streaming service is, by far, the worst in terms of picture quality & bitrate. It'll look MUCH better on the eventual Blu Ray/4K Blu Ray 2) Shooting in low light is incredibly & inherently difficult. Detail and clarity suffer in the best circumstances. To combat this most directors now use artificial lighting for night scenes but at the cost of immersion. Subconsciously, your mind knows when it's being tricked...

"The Chinese Government has tried to delude us by professions of peaceful intention...even though we regard ourselves as the friends of China, the Chinese do not regard us as their friends." - India's Sardar Patel, one month before his death in 1950. "The tragedy of it is that the Tibetans put faith in us; they chose to be guided by us; and we have been unable to get them out of the meshes of Chinese diplomacy or Chinese malevolence."