Dr. Trey 時間係扁圆 Profile picture
Social scientist, writer, analyst: 🇭🇰🇨🇳🇺🇲🇵🇭. founder: @OSINThk「香港人加油, 萬事小心」 RT’s = hypothetical examples of #NationalSecurityLaw violations #พันธมิตรชาน
eDo Profile picture Kayo♿️ Profile picture 弦外無音 Profile picture Siu-Tong Yim Profile picture 𝐄𝐮𝐛𝐢𝐞 𝐃𝐫𝐞𝐰 _⁵⁸ ᵈᵃʸˢ ᵒᶠ ⁱⁿᵗᵉʳʳᵉᵍⁿᵘᵐ ᵗᵒ ᵍᵒ_ Profile picture 5 added to My Authors
13 Nov
Serious typhoon just hit the Philippines, which has been struggling with COVID too
What I hate about Knowing A Lot About The Philippines is that there’s like three or four Cagayan’s that might be referenced here. Is the one I’ve been to or a province I’ve forgotten exists?
Isabella? That’s like the MLK Blvd of Philippine place names. Could be literally anywhere. A two hectare subdivision of Manila or a Section IVX Class 3 city on an island whose name I forgot.
Read 4 tweets
13 Nov
Short background thread about the significance
China is somewhat peculiar in that there was no settled endonym (name you call yourselves) for what what we call China today for most of its history. You would call both the government and geographic topology of the land it ruled by the name of the dynasty in power at the time.
Oddly, though, everyone else seemed to have settled on some form of “Sina” almost two thousand years ago. The oldest mentions are in Sanskrit. The Persians called it Čīn, the earliest Greeks reference to the area is ‘Thin,’ which became Sina / Sīnae in Latin.
Read 18 tweets
13 Nov
AVIC is targeted here, of which Harbin Aircraft (HAIG) is a subsidiary that focuses on military helicopters. At risk of being too overt, the Harbin Z-9 isn't a @USCG MH-65 Dolphin knockoff... they're both licensed productions of the same aircraft.

... Eurocopter AS365 Dauphin.
The Harbin Z-15 is the Airbus H175, a joint development between AVIC and Eurocopter to make a "super medium" lift version of the Super Puma (middle).
And this friendly fella, the Harbin Z-19, is a licensed Eurocopter Dauphin transformed into an attack helicopter.
Read 5 tweets
12 Nov
A year later, I honestly think this entire series of events (the university sieges) was a giant misunderstanding with a small dose of rogue riot cops.
HKPF realized how oddly strategicly located so many universities were to HK transit. Students and outsiders rallied to the campus to defend against what looked like an imminent raid into the dorms.
But some in HKPF quickly realized that a few pedestrian bridges could shut down tunnels, highways, and rail track. The more they fought for these bridges, the more it brought ppl to 'hold the line' and stop them from entering the universities (which I don't think was planned)
Read 12 tweets
12 Nov
note their recent rise in the rw media ecosystem seems to have come *after* Facebook banned them for running like a hundred alts pushing MAGA SpyGate derp.
I’d leave it to either @jgriffiths or @BeijingPalmer for a more authoritative take (and the first James is more sympathetic)...

- the religion itself is very socially conservative. But their anti-gay meltdown this week is nothing I’ve ever seen from their Eng medium multimedia.
- my own take on FLG media is that they think they’re playing some 4th Dimensional chess game using their media outlets to create narratives portraying diff natl leaders and their competitors as either villains or hero’s that somehow leads to them getting ‘rectified’ back in 🇨🇳
Read 5 tweets
11 Nov
A slightly younger version of me would be aghast at this. But a slightly older me thinks “I worked X at the most prestigious job location in the world: the White House. My party is now out of power and I’m out of work. Do I accept these lucrative post-WH job offers or nah?”
They didn’t get offered these jobs because ‘corruption.’ They were offered these jobs because even wealthiest firms in the world don’t know how to make non-referential human resource decisions. If you were good enough for the White House, you’re better than the other candidate.
It is literally the exact same phenomena that puts any value in a Harvard or Yale degree. No one thinks that makes you automatically better: it’s that someone more prestigious made a decision that you’re something close to “reliably among the best. Elite.”
Read 5 tweets
11 Nov
I do not have quite the words to explain what’s happening in HK wrt to NSL. They are not using the laws and instruments of the law directly on that many people yet. So far, it’s functioning more like a Old School CCP-style ‘mass line’ around which everything is being re-organized
I stepped off a bus this evening and crossed two minibuses. The first just says "National Security Law," almost no other context. The bus on the left says "Obey the Law" in large font, and clarifies it's from Labour Dept in small font.

They want it in your face.
Then you gets statements like this from EDB today: education is is national education, national ed is natl security ed, the purpose of ed is natl sec, and every student most know maintaining national security is their core duty as a citizen and student. NSL will touch everything
Read 7 tweets
11 Nov
this isn't Bush v Gore 2000 with a legal fight over a recount in one state wherein a few hundred votes determined the winner. What his lawyers have argued so far (a) don't match Trump's claims, (b) get them laughed out of court.

Trump lost the election. There is no 'dispute.'
Trump is arguing that there's a massive conspiracy. Across the country, even in GOP-run states, Dems simply looked at the scoreboard at 11pm, calculated how many fraudulent mail-in ballots they'd need to win, dumped them in counting centers overnight, and that's how Biden 'won.'
He peddled the same conspiracy theory after he won in 2016 to explain how/why Clinton got 2.8m more votes than he did.

Read 10 tweets
11 Nov
1. been thinking about this for a day now and I’ve decided the analogy is the opposite of “if a tree falls in a forest...” thought experiment. If you think it made a sound when no one heard it, then Trump is trying and failing to self-coup himself a 2nd term
2. The ‘falling tree’ is the chain of events set off on Nov 3rd, starting with voting itself and ultimately leading to the ‘sound’ of impact with reality on Inauguration Day: Jan 20, 2021.

We have more than enough info to know the ‘sound’ is Trump leaving office on Jan 20th.
3. 77m voters landed at least 30 more axe hits (290 EC votes) than needed (270) to make Trump’s presidential tree hit the ground on Jan 20. But this ‘tree’ is shouting that it still stands if you discount non-existent ‘illegal votes’, is filing frivolous lawsuits to stop it, etc.
Read 9 tweets
10 Nov
@HSBC_HK Customer Service hotline be like.
I'm like five levels deep into an "internet banking" sub-menu
and I just acccidentally hung myself up switching to Bluetooth.
Read 4 tweets
27 Oct
1. To recap: trade deal falls apart at the same time Trump blames China for COVID, so Trump starts signing whatever Congressional China Hawks put on his desk. At the same time, Xi and state media start making a lot of noises about invading Taiwan very, very soon.
2. Taiwan wasn’t doing anything particularly provocative, unless you count devouring a KMT presidential candidate in a landslide earlier this year. But with PLAAF H-6K’s circumnavigating her island about once a week, she makes some arms sale requests.
3. First up are 135 SLAM-ER high precision cruise missiles that can reach the airbases of those H-6K’s Flanker escorts likely take off from. This is now the longest range missile in their inventory, except many their handful of homemade DIY cruise missiles disguised as ice trucks
Read 15 tweets
26 Oct
Lower the age to buy an AR-15 to eight and watch how fast gun restriction laws get passed in every state.
2A types: this is madness! You can’t give a kid an assault... I mean semi-automatic hunting rifle! And they can bring them to school? Are you nuts?!

Me, wise: 2A says this right to own guns “shall not be infringed.” You either don’t really believe that or you’re being ageist.”
Me, wise: starts a ‘buy a semi-automatic Uzi for every child in poverty’ GoFundMe campaign

2A types: begin drafting the most severe gun restriction laws since the 19th century
Read 5 tweets
26 Oct
This is Trump’s version of the infamous Jiang Zemin interview meltdown in Hong Kong. Except this is a man-baby and Jiang was at least funny.

The context is that he’s being asked if Tung will be re-appointed for a second term, given the massive* protests over Article 23**.

* for the time. Half a million would be any random weekend in Summer 2019, though.

** which just came into law as the NSL in July 2020
Tung resigned for ‘health reasons’ a few months after this interview. But this is Jiang blowing up at HK reporters for asking loaded questions assuming (correctly) Beijing was making the decisions.

He starts by saying he’s ‘no emperor; follow HK laws.”
Read 14 tweets
25 Oct
I'll use this space to promote @zeynep's new newsletter, note she encouraged me to start comparativist.substack.com, but I've paused paid subs on what was still a free newsletter b/c we're still learning what will and won't get you kidnapped by the MSS in HK since the NSL became law
This was my last update. We're somewhere between Scenario 2 and Scenario 3 right now. As I concluded at the end, the scenarios aren't mutually exclusive. They're most likely sequential. So we're in 2 and heading towards 3 at unknown speed right now.

comparativist.substack.com/p/the-fall-of-…
For instance, I have a lot of nuanced thoughts about HK nationalism, debates about independence, and the movements around them. I predicted it's inevitable rise in early 2015 - but that came from engaging with academic work, particularly Ernest Gellner.

comparativist.org/2015/02/01/the…
Read 7 tweets
25 Oct
I thought I mostly knew this stuff when I started writing. But it's one of those things where you look up a known gap in your knowledge and discover you know a lot less than you thought. And it's more like you need to re-arrange a lot of things you thought you knew.
I wanted to introduce the idea of the Anthropocene by rhetorically asking how you would know when humans first arrived where you live. I'd walk the reader through basic geology and anthropology to arrive at the answer "when local megafauna disappeared."
The earliest humans wherever you live left no other trace of their presence unless you stumble upon some arrowheads or similar leftover 'stone age' hunting trash (archeology really just is the study of non-biodegradable human trash)
Read 7 tweets
25 Oct
what I have so far. 24 hr timeline works best

Pangea forms at 9:10am and begins breaking apart by 4:15pm. The first tree shows up just before 7am, fish at 5:24am. Dinosaurs emerge at 1:49pm. K-T Event asteroid lands at 9:08pm. The Pleistine 'Ice Age' begins at 11:53pm.
Mammals show up at 2:42pm. The first flower blooms at 5:48pm. Shark-ish things emerge at around 4am, real sharks don't arrive until 7:34pm.

Modern Antarctica doesn't form until 10:36pm. It was half desert and partly in the Northern Hemisphere earlier in the morning.
The whole point of this little project? Banging my head on a writing sample for younger audiences trying to explain complex environmental problems. I decided to talk about the Anthropocene.

The Holocene begins two seconds before midnight on this 24 hour timeline. Two. Seconds.
Read 4 tweets
25 Oct
I learned the hard way that there wasn't much of a career in my field as what it first looked like. HKU's comparative ed program grew ~5x, but it was mostly Mainland students mixed in with a few HK expat teachers. My department PhD classmates were >80% Mainlanders.
Unlike US/UK/Aus, HK doesn't bilk international students. We wanted them because it helped us rise in the intl university league tables!

So HK aquired a lot of comparative ed and ed policy expertise, research, and training that wasn't possible if reliant on local student demand
The prof that taught my Intl Higher Ed course was a Mainland scholar that started his career in Chaozhou, had his talent seen in HK where he was poached for either a M.Ed or Ph.D., but finished it in Australia. He came back to HKU to teach.
Read 12 tweets
25 Oct
If I were Taiwan, Korea Vietnam, or Japan: I'd be six months into a plan of poaching groups or faculty and admin* from US/UK/Aus universities popular w/ intl students, getting them settled into the org chart of the best 2-3 universities, and would be starting Fall 2020 about now.
All the ingredients were there and obvious by early March to anyone paying close enough attention. There is still an insanely lucrative demand for Western higher ed in Asia. Western countries both couldn't provide it AND many faculty would eagerly get out of US/UK for safety.
The rest is logistics and working off blueprints already around for intl branch campuses. You could do it the branch campus way, or basically 'aquire' distressed assets (almost entire departments), fold them into your own universities, and market a COVID-free learning experience.
Read 16 tweets
24 Oct
1. Like most people, I initially thought the ‘Tigers and Flies’ campaign was using corruption as an excuse to purge challengers and future competitors to Xi and his clique. The evidence supports that opposite conclusion: it weeded out a lot of the most vulgar corruption
2. @ChinaFile, NYT, and a few others collected all the data (CCP wasn’t hiding who they took down) and there’s really no discernible pattern you’d expect if he was going after X and Y group or clique to protect and elevate others.

chinafile.com/infographics/v…
3. What I recall from the reading is that the most cynical thing you could say is that *maybe* at the tippy top, the inner circle, some people were corrupt but weren’t exposed (and ruined). But that’s past tense, b/c it’s well documented CCP cadre and leadership norms changed.
Read 11 tweets
24 Oct
Oddball fact sidenote I’ve picked up on: whenever COVID comes up when I’m on the phone with an American, they’ll usually cite the official term for what phase of reopening their state is in. Contrast w/ PH, where *CQ denotes how much lockdown needed.
My sample is small, mostly in the South, but my sisters will say “no, it’s Phase 2, so [schools are re-opened]” like I should already know what that term means. Haven’t encountered it anywhere else. Technically, a state can drop from, say 3 to 2, but it’s a political decision.
2. I don’t know if it’s just a regional idiosyncrasy to describe the same types of experiences everyone is experiencing (HKSAR gov doesn’t have names or stages, just ad hoc restrictions that phase out arbitrarily [beaches still closed?!).

But...
Read 8 tweets
24 Oct
At HSBC trying to open a bank account in my name. One month, minimum, for any American. Even one with HK Permanent Residency. Doesn't apply to other nationalities, appears some kind of Super KYC that goes through @USTreasury or @StateDept.

How new is this?
Pre-PR, I couldn't open and account without dishonestly giving a US "permanent address" without listing an address I've never lived in. For some family members, if I used that, a state I haven't lived in since about 12 y/o.

My FL voter ID has an address I lived at 16 years ago.
Read 6 tweets