Last night in Iraq can lead anywhere. It is as important as the Ukraine war in its impact on global developments. Been up all night following the news. 1/4 It is too soon to declare an Iranian defeat in Iraq. It’s not how it starts but how it ends, the settlement, who mediates and between who it is reached. 2/4

Just as in 2006, I think it is safe to declare a Hamas victory whatever the final outcome of the battle. Hamas’s victory is not over Israel but over its internal rivals Fatah and others parties. As in 2006 the final outcome will be long term and will take years to sink in. What matters is the political impact. Nasser lost the Suez war militarily but it was his greatest victory.

How do we estimate the "ransom" that Lebanon as a hostage pays as a cost to the economy over the last 20 years. This can only be estimates because some of it is opportunity cost and lost revenue. Help is appreciated in putting $ values.

https://twitter.com/sibellemhanna82/status/1259872896668913666

I call it a ransom because the alternative is confrontation with Hizballah and civil war which no one is willing to undertake. Civil war would be with Hizballah's constituency who are hostages themselves. So we have to pay the ransom which has several elements.

Thanks @oldlevantine for this explanation, here are a few more elements to complete the picture.

https://twitter.com/oldlevantine/status/1299072963766030338

In 1860 the same Maronite Church, under Patriarch Boulos Massaad also opted for the larger entity of the Mutassarifiya of Mount Lebanon as opposed to the two or three more homogeneous cantons (Maronite, Druze, Orthodox) proposed by the western powers after the Massacres.

What we are listening to so far is a step by step catalogue of every accusation and a summary of the conclusion for each. The verdict will come at the end summarizing all the conclusions. One single direct connection will be enough for the verdict to be politically significant. Very interesting what they could be building up to. Keep listening and don't jump to conclusions yet. Even at the end of this it will take a few days for the results be interpreted.

An explanation of how Hizballah was a direct cause of Lebanon's ruin even if it is not the "architect of the system". Calling it a "guarantor" is the same as calling the Mafia a "protector".

https://twitter.com/tobiaschneider/status/1293624764322414592

Hizballah paralyzed the country between November 2006 and June 2008 19 months in an attempt to sabotage the government and prevent it from requesting the UN to set up the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. This ended in the Doha agreement giving them 1/3 +1 veto in the cabinet.

Very useful background to the "negligence" that caused the tragedy in Lebanon by @glcarlstrom of @TheEconomist
economist.com/podcasts/2020/… The podcast is useful in that it summarizes the dominant narrative on Lebanon - one that is almost universally accepted and which makes sense in explaining why and how such negligence can occur.

If the Caravans stop coming to the Souk no amount of reshuffling and restructuring of the Souk will revive it. So far most of the discussions I have seen involve the internal dynamics of the souk and the morality of its components.