In 2007 I was sitting around with a few of my broker friends and the subject of how we invest our money came up.

We all said a few typical things and then a newer guy at the firm chimed in and said something that shook me. He said he had everything with a money manager in a closed fund that got him 18-20% every year. He said the manager wasn’t taking on new money but he’d gotten in through his in-laws who’d been with the guy for 25 years.

I've been through real estate corrections and know a thing or two about what they look like on both sides of the peak.

Here are some things to look for to help identify the turn before things fall apart and you get stuck assuming 30% rent growth to make your deals work. CRE transactions are a market trailing indicator.

PSAs signed today were listed 30-120 days ago and usually close in 45-90days.

When a closing happens (let's say in 4/22) the bulls will scream - "NO CORRECTION" but it is a reflection of the 11/21 market, not the 4/22 market.

Let’s get ready for 2022.

This is the time of year we look back at our accomplishments for the previous 12 mos. For most of us the answer is probably we could have done more. The fact is, with determination, we are capable of incredible things. But it takes organization and planning to execute on a daily basis and achieve your goals.

So take a 12/31/21 to write down your Personal Business Plan (PBP) for 2022

Don’t be afraid to set Big Hairy Audacious Goals (BHAGs)
Set your sights high. You have 365 days to execute.

1/5
If you follow me on Twitter you know I sell CRE.

I’ve done it for 20 yrs. and learned a few things about buyer and seller psychology.

When people ask me: What's the property worth?

I tell them it depends if you're selling or buying.

Here's why. 2/5
When valuing income producing RE you’re putting a “present value” on the future income and underlying appreciation of the property.

This is straight forward enough but what that value ought to be depends on which side of the table you're on.

1/37
Tweeting that we’ve entered a prolonged market top gets negative feedback on RETwit and accused of FUD yodeling.

Rather than respond to the comments, here/s 37 part thread why the inveterate bulls should, as Ice Cube said, check themselves before they wreck themselves. 2/37
Preface: This is not a subtweet. I love the bulls.

8 Life Lessons from 20 yrs in CRE & teaching

I've learned a few non-academic things that I share with my students on the last day of class.

So channeling my inner @girdley, here's what they got today (edited for Twitter): 1. Learn to Thrive With Uncertainty:

No one knows where prices will be tomorrow.

This will be the first of several cycles you'll live through.

All markets correct eventually and market corrections create opportunities.

Make sure you're around when it happens.

I'm starting to get calls and questions about co-working solutions. So here's a reminder:

Co-Working existed before WeWork.
WeWork (VCs actually) destroyed Co-working as a model.

A 🧵 about the RE and operational costs in Co-working.

1/14 Office use is estimated by square foot (sf) per employee. If you have 100 employees then multiply that by the sf estimate and you get your approx. office size need.

The traditional metric is ~185-200sf per employee and assumes some private offices, conference rooms, etc.

2/14

1/4 Retail
As retail begins to open up and vacant spaces start to get leased here's a retail primer:

1. Retail rents are about by foot traffic. It doesn't matter what the residential market looks like. If people aren't walking/driving by then the space can't sustain a high rent. 2/4
2. Retail locations don't create new customers. They can only steal from existing businesses or capitalize on increased demand or unmet demand.

A business that thinks it will educate it's customers is, usually, doomed to fail.

We on RETwit like to brag about our successes but the realty is, sometimes, no matter how hard you work, things don't work out.

How you handle failure says more about you as a professional than any of your "successes."

What to do when shit doesn't work out - a thread. My best client pulled a property off the market today and will likely re-list it with another broker in the future.

It was a long marketing effort, with a ton of people through the building, multiple offers, but nothing that was 100% acceptable to both sides.

Shit happens.