$tsla 2022 ex credits:
ASP: 53,039
Average Cost: 38,879
26.77% GM

Musk said 65% of sales are Model Y on call & have higher costs/worse margins & that’s the model that had the largest price drop so conservatively assume 10% drop in ASP = 47,735 w/same cost to produce or 18.5% GM Let’s now assume 1.9M deliveries in 23 and flat opex which is very generous… I get 3.05 EPS based on previous ASP and costs assumptions. Add in the leasing and energy biz and get another .40
In eps for a total of about 3.45 which is a decrease from 4.07 in 22

On $apps Single tap runnin at 100M rev now & said at analyst day would be 1B in 12-18 months due to strategy of licensing it. Currently just 15 advertisers but the 1 billion would be 150 large advertisers (like $fb). Well at Oppenheimer Summit mid Dec said already in trials w/ FB Also said would go to 4B rev and 1B ebitda 3-5 years from now vs 1.2B this yr. These guys do have low gross margins at 35% but also low operating costs and asset light model and low sbc. 25% long term ebitda margins also lower but still good. 70% of rev now recurring

$amzn trailing revs by cat (other is mostly advertising).

This is the last “easy comp” for AWS as it grew just 28% q4 last yr before accelerating to 32 & then 37% & 39% however ad rev soared to 7.9B last q4 which actually been flat last 2 q’s. Last yr had prime day (not this yr) I can see ad rev flat or up $1B at most though supply chain issues make me think flat or down is possible. Even if up a full $1B on ads that would be just 15% growth which would be the headline…

took all my willpower but i listened to $fsly earnings call just for the hell of it.. Learned some interesting things:

1) its clear the top 10 customer that left is $amzn given that they said they pulled back usage inhouse not to a competitor 2) interesting that they said they have been in many meetings with them and have been told this pullback is temporary while the customer monitors the remedial steps $fsly has taken post outage & been told the plan is to return usage back when have confidence

Given the continued slaughter in small caps here’s the case for $gogo:

Metrics: $gogo is a 70% gross margin business w/ 80% of revs recurring that has a 40% ebitda margin & 35% FCF margin. $gogo guided to at least 10% rev growth to 2025. Stock trades 9.5x CY ebitda of 120M Upside potential: $gogo in their refinance of debt put out an 8k where they estimated 138M ebitda but then reported earnings & guided to 120M. Given mgmt’s history of sandbagging numbers the difference is them being conservative. On 138M stock trades 8.25 ebitda

Given the trading in $avpt I decided to make a thread as its my largest position & its clear ppl have no clue what they’re holding given the selling at this $10 lvl

2020 Rev: 151.5M (up 31%) w/ recurring Rev 114.5M (up 37%) & subscription rev of 91M (up 66%). Guided 194M for 21 Valuation: at $10 EV is 1.75B or 9x current yr revs of 194M & based on the investor pres less than 7x fwd revs of 257M. Margins of 72% seem low however 20% of rev is services which drag them down. $avpt said that should trend down to 10% or less w/ margin uplift of 1000bps to 82%

Spent hours going through $upst 10q yday as wanted to understand it better & while I’d be lying if claimed to understand everything there were enough 🚩 that I won’t be getting back in. Very sure someone is building a huge short here & short report will come out at some point $upst core ai lending platform along w/servicing (platform & service fees) went from 33M in Dec to just 41M in March, vast majority of rev growth came from referral fees going from 38M to 73.5M. They use loan aggregators like credit karma which is over 50% intuit just bought them

Top 5 positions in order:
1) $ntnx: own stock & $30 jan leaps though sold july $25 calls this wk. Stock ran from 27 to 37 in a month yet still trades just 5.2x fwd revs growing 20%+ next yr w/ room for accel. Analyst day 6/22 but with rsi 79, could b sell news event unless shock $ntnx said will reveal cadence of renewals & give target for cash flow breakeven at analyst day, cfo previously said looking at rule of 40 in FY24 so assume CF breakeven in FY23. Next q is already q4 FY21 so not as far away as seems. Target 45 end of this yr & 65 end of next

$fubo rev beat with subs up big but secret is that revs from subscribers doesnt matter because its a biz that will never be profitable. The more subs they acquire the more losses they have, which is why their only hope is 1) ad biz ramping hard & 2) moonshot of betting Good news is that the company did raise a lot of cash with 465M on the books, i he bad news is they lost 54M in cash from ops this q off revs off 120M in revs which is god awful. Adv rev did rise 200% but thats just 12M now.

Portfolio Up 50% from when tech rally started 7 days ago & back to ATH now. Was HEAVILY in $fb, $goog, $aapl, $amzn, $snap, $twtr calls before rally...anyone who follows me knows ive been saying that large tech would be the next rotation & it finally was. Have trimmed some now Still see $amzn and $aapl being good opptys into earnings with $amzn finally breaking out post earnings. Have sold off the last 3 crushed reports, with sentiment changing and union win think it wont sell off a 4th time. Also prime day back to June which might not be in estimates

$myov:
Company has a drug, Relugolix w/ 3 potential use cases so far:
1) Men’s health: already approved for Prostate Cancer on Dec 2020. From what i can tell drug is just as safe & works as well as the competition. Benefit is its the only oral drug; competition is only injectable The mens health is monotherapy meaning just the drug while the other use cases are in combination with others for womens health. By the way if i had to go to doc to get an injection or be able to take medicine orally id skip the injection every time, think they take massive share

The good: besides large tech $aapl, $goog, $amzn, and $fb for which i happened to be perfectly positioned with a monster amount of call options prior to them rising $crm, $splk, and new buy yday $plan were very strong today. $estc with a nice recovery though down today and $pd ok The Bad: largest position $ntnx continues to eat shit every day. Im either going to be shockingly wrong here or proven right & make a small fortune
$gogo randomly fell apart today
$amd refuses to run
$fsly drops regardless of what thr market is doing
$wynn: no rallies hold

One of my biggest losses/investing failures came on cannabis side. I did all the financial statement analysis, saw the demand was great and extrapolated the additional capacity coning online with the unit economics & got bulled up on select names i thought were great like $vff Stock fell from 13 to 4 in a straight line as most companies got killed in the canadian space. What i missed was margin compression due to too much competition and oversupply. I try to take that lesson with me and when others see high margins i see potential for price erosion

Valuation thread with heavy credit to @akramsrazor whose podcast highly recommend for insights. Lets take $zm. Everyone was in love with their earnings beat and higher guide and congratulating themselves for being long after the last q and then thr stock dropped 30% quickly..why? $zm reported revs of 883M & guided to 902M revs for next q. The runrate of 902M per q1 guide if taken flat for rest of yr is 3.6B. They guided to 3.77B. Thats just a 5% increase for the yr from q1 run rate. That is a massive decline & implies negative billings growth 2H of 21..

Bearish thesis thread:
1) there are so many ppl that have made SO much $ over the past year on stocks like $zm, $crwd, $roku, $pins and now a million spaqs. Many are first time investors who have no clue hoe much capital gains tax they are going to owe from all the $ they made 2) but thats NOT all the taxes u owe! Anyone trading in & out or selling anything this yr ALSO owes estimated payments for the first q on top of 2020 capital gains which many dont realize. For example im up 90% ytd already and given 2019 taxes were small i owe a ton on 21 already

Been doing a lot of thinking & honestly think $rkt could potentially be lining up for a mini $gme type moment:

1) $rkt tried to go public at 150M shares @ $20-22 however due to weak demand cut back to 100M shares @ $18. This also means pre lockup the float was just 100M or $2B 2) ive been monitoring short interest and ever since last q its gone up 5% every two weeks like clockwork with the latest info now showing 37% of shares held short. This is off the 100M ipo float not the total.

Some $pins observations for tomorrow’s earnings:

1) revenue growth expected to come in at 61% (last q was 58% so a slight acceleration)

2) next q guidance expected for 56% rev growth, little bit of an easy compare as covid started at the back of the q. Last yr grew 35% in q1 3) this yr rev expected to be 1.63B vs 1.143B last yr or 43% growth.

4) Last yr rev was 1.143B vs 755M in 2018 or 51% growth

5) next yr rev expected at 2.32B or 42% growth. Following yr 3.18B for 37% growth

6) stock trades at 21x next yr revs & 15x following yr revs

Overall thoughts on $amzn:
1) while aws growth missed little this q the backlog up to 50B (up 68%) implies acceleration
2) e-commerce internationally beat big & could be getting more entrenched there
3) $amzn on call said spent 48B in open last yr much of it on adding capacity 4) 2020 COVID costs were $11B, while these will continue as vaccine rolls out it will be less. Only guided to 2B this q
5) with COVID and investment costs of almost 60B last yr 2021 should be a much lower investment yr meaning EPS is about to beat big this yr and sky rocket imo

I think the largest oppty into earnings is $twtr on 2/9:
1) everyone and their mother is neg on it meaning sentiment and positioning is shit poor and expectations low (see $nflx reaction)
2) Everyone expects users to drop but no one understands that Twitter uses different metrics 3) Twitter uses monetizable daily active users versus every other platform using monthly active users or daily active users. What if Trump and many of the conspiracists who were removed never qualified as monetizable daily active user?

Want to be tra soarent since ive been so vocal on $trit that last night i reached out again given some discrepancies in financial statements related to account receivables being so high and their platform costs not being in r&d but in investing cash flows (higher ebitda shown) While the comoany has not gotten back to me on the details of my additional questions they did say that they dont plan to have any formal quarter results for the q they just provided estimates for... they said their press release saying 17M rev plus 10M net income is all we get

Just spent an hour on the phone with $trit IR:
1) company has 56 employees of which 6 are engineers related to the platform who are managed by Ashish. The key is in addition they outsource to India additional 50-80 tech contractors at any given time who they used to launch Kratos 2) srinivas is a controlling investor in Rhodium but company has full time CEO and CFO and he doesnt control and is not privy to the day to day operations of the company. $trit started through him seeing a need for a better way to trade more effectively through Rhodium experience